EastonSN+

Yeah that is an interesting time period to compare. We are a good snowstorm away from being lockstep with a 1970s. Agree on temps however our latitude should have a different effect on us as compared to say Washington (or New Orleans LOL).

Time will tell. Positives I have seen since 2018 are: The mjo was not stuck in the warm phases all winter like we were fearing. This leads to the mjo, however we have not been dominated by an RNA to Baja like the last couple years. We have had back-to-back blow average temperature months. Still getting snow down to New Orleans in Myrtle Beach. Delmarva having a second dominant inter-season in the last 6. I think the issue I am having with the time periods is 2000 through 2018 was a mirror to 1955 through 1969 where both periods were completely dominated by KU events. So I get what you're saying when you start with 93 94 till today however the reason I am comparing 70 through 99 is it sits between those two KU dominated. My theory is we have exited that KU dominated period like 1970 and therefore 1970 through 1999 could be a match for 2019 through today. If that's the case per my analysis we are in line with that period. I think an interesting comparison would be 1955 through 1969 compared to 2000 through 2018 and how the warming temperatures affected the KU events.

16 of those 30 years Central Park failed to reach 20 inches (> 50% of the winters during that 30 year stretch). Excluding this season, Central Park reached 20 inches 2 out of the 6 seasons (30%). 1 of those winters did not have a KU, so 50% of the 20+ winters did not have a KU. I am not pointing out the above to dispute, only to reiterate that 6 years is an extremely small sample size. Perhaps we are mirroring 1970 through 1999, however now we are reaching 20 inches 30% of the time instead of 46% of the time (50% of those needing a KU). However again 6 years is an extremely small sample size).

Yep I believe it was only 6 KUs in 30 years from 1970 to 1999. We've had one KU in the last six Winters so really on Target. We just have to wait for the fast flow to slow down/jet retract. Maybe next year maybe later this year.

3.25 in Easton CT 6.5 on the year.

3.25 in Easton CT. 6.5 on the year.

Ended up with 3.25 in Easton CT. 6.5 on the year.

Ended up with 3.25 in Easton CT. 6.5 on the year.

Any Central Park measurements

It got the initial band correct however it had me all rain in coastal CT and have been all snow.

Looks like the radar echoes are getting lighter just north of Manhattan moving south. Is that the cold air drain down the Hudson.?

Hoping that intense band clips us as it heads Northeast.

We just need a good rainstorm between the cold snaps to make a complete.

LOL New Orleans might break their 4 plus streak before Central Park.

Finding the mjo interesting. Phase 3 is apparently colder than average in February. Looks like there is a standing wave developing in phase 8 and 1 per below. Wonder if we avoid the cold phases, that being said, we were cold in December while we traverse through the warm phases so the mjo may not be running the bus. Losing the EPO is a bit concerning if one likes colder weather.

We lost the EPO in these depictions and are solely reliant on the trough south of Greenland.

Hopefully get another event before EOM.

Thanks would be a shame if we miss out on both events.

Hoping the 12Z EPS snow mean is as good. Unfortunately the OP didn't show much.

Cold air will be in place from the negative EPO. As Blue Wave mentioned it's all about storm track for January and February. With cold air in place and the storm which will 90% be off the coast given where it's starting from it would 100% be all snow. Biggest issue is getting it up here. Remember 2013-2014 we had no blocking all winter and it was frigid with lots of snow.

Did the 6z EPS come further north? The lack of blocking should allow the ability and potential for it to come a little further north.

Thanks Bluewave. Seems this is the furthest west model now that the RDPS came east.

Looking into February, although this depiction shows the EPO going positive, the trough south of Greenland, which has been there all season long, remains. This puts us on the right side of the gradient. Canada would be cold in this depiction and therefore we would have a cold air source. Verbatim a kind of dry look.