EastonSN+

Yeah that's the New England forum Mets thoughts. Ironically we can use the darn WAR for the mid week system. So we are now rooting for the WAR to flex. One too east. One too west. Our luck.

Yeah who knows. If I were a betting man I would say we would rake in the snowfall the next time we have a -4SD AO. Of course opinions vary, in the New England forum the METS are adamant it was all bad luck and timing and flow nuances. Others think it's permanent. Yet others believe will stay this way until the water temps cool on the east coast. Finally there are some that think the water temps are permanent and things will never be the same. All we can do is wait and watch. Time will tell.

Yup, watching Andy Petitte dominating while the snow is falling.

As I grow older, I enjoy the warm weather patterns more and more I Remember the weather channel back then, this one host used to always say "it's just a cold SNAP, back to warmth before our next low pressure makes its way to the east".

Thanks Don! Amazing stat. Goes to show that a good pattern does not guarantee snowfall. IMO just as impressive as February 2018 where we had accumulating snow in an absolute furnace.

Ok will include. So for my area (coastal CT) would be 3 above normal and 4 below normal. Still no definitive trend. Maybe it's if it snows in November it's bad for western half of forum, 50/50 for east half?

If next week's storm does not work out, I wonder how many Decembers had a -4SD AO, negative temperature departures for the month and 0 snowfall for central park.

November 95. Anyone have the November 02 snow maps?

What about those of us on the forum that did?

Yeah meant 89/90 not 87/88, my bad. Problem here is if Eastern areas including central LI raked in 12/13, then half the board had an above average winter. So you can't outright exclude cause half didn't. For instance, in 15/16 my area only had average snowfall, so is 15/16 an average snowfall winter for this forum? Half the forum had above average snowfall. 02/03 same thing. Had 4 inches here on the coast. A very good portion of the board had November snow so we cannot outright exclude for the board. So, in my back yard which is on the coast, half have been good to great and half have been bad to terrible. The sample size is so small that really nobody truly knows. I get that weather patterns change and it could be "wasted" too early or too late, but sometimes weather patterns dominant for many months straight like 95/96, 02/03, 13/14 (yes I consider this a front to end winter, although we got shut out in March it was frigid and the storms just missed to the south. Not like we flipped out of a pattern). Maybe we say November snow is a detriment for only half the board and not bad for the eastern half? So it's really a longitude thing? Not trying to be argumentive, it's just that I do not live inland so it's not a north and west thing.

Cold and snowy Decembers will happen again. I mean we had a big snowstorm in 2020. It's just cyclical patterns. We are in a crappy period like the late 90s and pretty much every year from 1970 through 1992 save a couple years like 77/78.

I think 91/92 was a back ended too. 97/98 we didn't get our first and only snow till mid March :() . So I guess a back ender? That's all the additional ones I can think of. On the bright side it's weather and ironically unpredictable. So does not look great but who knows.

GEFS had a few more LPs closer to the coast over 6z.

FWIW the GEFS had a few more LPs closer to the coast than 6z.

One of those examples that show how we can still reach average snowfall in a very short period (also helps that that was an El Nino) Always in play for a monster

Thanks for this. Was so close for the City. Was living in Norwalk CT (coastal CT) and received a little over 4 inches. I mistakenly thought Central Park reached an inch.

Bad luck and timing. Could have had 2 good events if things timed right. Instead this one interrupts the next.

Was a good pattern, however as ORH wxman pointed out we were unlucky. He is a professional and value his opinion. So it was not a bad pattern, just one that didn't produce. At the opposite end is Feb 2018. We had EXTREME warmth yet had a 4.5 inch snow event. Was that a good snow pattern? Hit 60 plus multiple days Luck and timing.

Yup

I keep forgetting that one! One thing that drives me insane is when people say November snowstorms equal bad snowfall winters. 12/13, 02/03, 95/96 were all above average snowfall winters with November snowstorms. 18/19, 11/12 (October) and 87/88 we're below average. Seems equal to me.

Yeah but we did have a snow event in December 2012. Was minor like this years but I think Central Park had at least an inch in 12 where while we scored this year here in coastal CT (1.5 so far), Central Park had been skunked.

MJO phase 7 and 8? CFS weeklies flip us to a trough Jan 11. Probably following the MJO

On a positive note, Phases 7 and 8 incoming?

Thanks, 08/09 caught my attention as NYC stayed under 30. Over here was 42, amazing what a difference a short distance makes.

Another great post by ORH wxman. I feel like we were due to miss on a good pattern. This century until 18/19 we seemed to hit on EVERY pattern. Hell, only 7 below average snowfall seasons in 21 years.