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EastonSN+

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  1. EastonSN+
    Courtesy of RTD. I like that they put together a write up.
  2. EastonSN+
    Was thinking about this. So far we've had three looks. The Neg NAO period, the PAC flood period and now we are heading into the look above. Kind of amazing CPK is at 0 with three different setups.
  3. EastonSN+
    It floods the continent with PAC air. Also, like the NAO, the actual position and strength are important as well.
  4. EastonSN+
    MJO phase 6 by the 13th. Getting to 8 before the end of the season will likely be the determining factor as to whether or not we get at least 1 snow period this season (of course we could always get a fluke like Feb. 18, Jan 12, March 98 etc etc.).
  5. EastonSN+
    Protect the pipes.
  6. EastonSN+
    And after single digit lows. I remember we had a LOT of storms with perfect tracks which were all rain in 97/98.
  7. EastonSN+
    That right there was 97/98 in a nutshell.
  8. EastonSN+
    For all those not alive or too Young, this was 97/98.
  9. EastonSN+
    For all those not alive or too young, this was 97/98.
  10. EastonSN+
    I feel like DC is in a terrible location for snow in general. Last 10 years it seems to always snow north, south east and west of them lol.
  11. EastonSN+
    They have been raking lately.
  12. EastonSN+
    This will likely be the deciding factor in succeeding where winters like 72/73, 97/98 failed. Can we get to phase 8 at a decent amplitude in time....
  13. EastonSN+
    The only difference I see between 97/98 is 97/98 felt hopeless the entire winter. This winter we absolutely blew a golden opportunity. First storm too early for most (I only had 1.5). 2nd storm northern stream low absolutely exploded and became historically strong which is what ultimately did us in and avoided a December 2000 storm, the 3rd low which held a ton of potential was suppressed/moisture robbed from the historic 2nd storm. Now, as many we're saying la Ninas you have to score early as January and February are often hostile. We failed and now we are getting skunked. Sure we can score late Feb and March due to shorter wavelengths and all, but I would bet against at his point.
  14. EastonSN+
    And you know it's going strong negative in April....
  15. EastonSN+
    20/21 was at least somewhat close to average. I was at 42 inches my Average is 30 to 35. I think boom or bust is the norm. Since 1990 I have only reached average, or within 5 inches of average, in 1993, 2006 and 2016. Either complete failures like most winters in the 90s or this winter.
  16. EastonSN+
    I think CPK beats 97/98 this year. 97/98 was saved by a late March fluke. Can't rely on that. This place is going to be a party when we get the next 02/03, 14/15, 15/16 etc etc.....
  17. EastonSN+
    Yes but the difference is strong, well placed blocking. La Nina with no blocking is horrendous for snow here. The NAO has not been negative since December 15.
  18. EastonSN+
    We are on the east side of the northern stream low so flexes the SE ridge. That is normal in a la Nina with no strong blocking to force it underneath us. In an El Nino the southern stream is dominant and we we be fine temps wise. We absolutely have to get out of this la Nina pattern . Hopefully not too strong or we torch.
  19. EastonSN+
    The issue is it's a la Nina and the Northern stream dominates. so instead of the northern low being weak and not torching our temps like an El Nino, the northern low strengthens and pumps up the SE ridge. We may get some frozen, but long story short we need an El Nino bad. This has been happening all winter, biggest one was the December storm.
  20. EastonSN+
    This is happening ALL SEASON. The models replace a cold high pressure with a Low pressure NW of us. This raises our temps of course. I can only imagine this is due to northern stream la Nina dominance? If the northern stream is dominant, cutters will pump up the SE ridge. Last run This run
  21. EastonSN+
    Wasn't the 2000s snowier than the 2010s?
  22. EastonSN+
    IMO this is the biggest issue this year. We need the NAO to go negative again. Amazing how positive it has been since December 15
  23. EastonSN+
    Thanks Don. DC has also seen extremely bad luck (if there is luck in weather). Raleigh had a historic snowfall, multiple Norfolk, Delmarva events. So the combination of warming removing their borderline temp opportunities and near misses has lead to an atrocious snowfall anomaly for that City.
  24. EastonSN+
    Exactly! The end of above average snowfall winters will occur once we stop seeing snow in Raleigh/Norfolk/Delmarva IMO. The 2nd storm looks like it will hit the Delmarva once again. How ANYONE can definitely claim the end of winters as we know it is beyond me. Could it be true? Sure, why can't we wait a few more years to make a claim? I mean we have had multiple 5 year snowless stretches before, so CURRENTLY this stretch is not new. For me, the 90s are the Benchmark for futility. If we go 10 years with less than 2 average to above average snowfall winters I will admit we are in real trouble (snowfall wise). So starting with Dec 2019, including this year, we are 4 below and 1 above. Let's see what the next five bring.
  25. EastonSN+
    Yup. To be fair it looks like the standard la Nina storm tracks (cutter slider).
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