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EastonSN+

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Everything posted by EastonSN+

  1. EastonSN+
    Yeah I posted the total snowfall map earlier, which was a perfect reflection of a seasonal snowfall map from the 80s. Snow north and south of us.
  2. EastonSN+
    I just posted a quote from Storm Chaser Chuck on his view that there is a +EPO/-PNA/-NAO correlation and that it's hard to snow in that setup. I think it's honestly a strong coupled La Nina forcing the Aleutian ridge and subsequent downstream effect. I bet this setup leads to "south based" NAOs and failed NAOs. We saw the effect in December. We get to see the effects during shorter wavelengths now.
  3. EastonSN+
    I mean with a deep RNA it will be tough. That coupled with the fact that this year has been northern stream dominate argues against this solution. However it would be funny if CPK had a ratter while DC had an average snowfall season.
  4. EastonSN+
  5. EastonSN+
    This would hurt and be fitting for this year.
  6. EastonSN+
    Interesting.
  7. EastonSN+
    Analogs are ok for a loose comparison. Winters are like snowflakes they will never be identical. Although 01/02 and this year are closer than any 2 winters I can remember. That year had a failed NAO as well.
  8. EastonSN+
    Explain? How deep was the RNA and how strong was the NAO? Also was there an Aleutian ridge? Was the enso the same?
  9. EastonSN+
    In the end, I want to see a south based block when the RNA is weak or neutral more than once. I think there is a connection between deep RNAs and south based Blocking.
  10. EastonSN+
    What we need to track is the connection between deep RNA and NAO failures and position. Last year was a great example, deep RNA and south based Blocking, the METS call the NAO bootleg and an atmosphereic furnace and not a true block.
  11. EastonSN+
    If it was SST driven the 2021 standard blocking would have been south too but it was not.
  12. EastonSN+
    And deep RNAs result in NAO failures.
  13. EastonSN+
    I am not sold that the SSTs are static. We have to wait a few years to see if they cycle out like El Nino las nina. NOBODY knows now.
  14. EastonSN+
    Yeah but haven't we had strong RNAs without an NAO? Or has every strong RNA had an NAO? Have we ever had a very strong RNA with a NORTH based blocks?
  15. EastonSN+
    I think it's likely a result of a strong RNA. I.e. when an RNA is intense the downstream effect is a south based NAO. When the RNA is weak or obviously positive, it's a north based block. Not concerned as we JUST had a standard block just two years ago so they are not gone.
  16. EastonSN+
    Right, however why has it been all year that the NAO appears a couple days following the RNA? Last December too. And when that happens we fail. There HAS to be a connection it cannot be random.
  17. EastonSN+
    I would love to find out the reasoning behind the above. The NAO follows the PNA by a couple days. Can this really be coincidence? Can't be. The NAO follows the RNA like a puppy dog
  18. EastonSN+
    I really think the south based blocks are bootleg and not classic blocking. Too much correlation between deep RNA followed by the NAO.
  19. EastonSN+
    I don't think it's abnormal. We did have a classic block recently two year ago. I raised this earlier and have not received a response yet, however I think the south based blocks may be RNA driven and "bootleg". If you look at the PNA and NAO charts I posted yesterday the RNA and NAO flex at the same time all year. Happened last December as well. I don't know why and if there is a connection, however there has to be a downstream affect. Don posted yesterday where large snowfalls decrease when the RNA drops below -1. I would be more concerned if 2021 blocking did not happen.
  20. EastonSN+
    I agree. I lived through the 80s and 90s so to me this is normal while 00 through 18 was the outlier. We get a 20/21 winter every 2 to 4 years while the rest are warm and snowless. IF IF the warmer waters are static, then an 80s repeat can be historically snowy.
  21. EastonSN+
    I like to try to take away a lesson from each season. This year I learned that blocking is useless when the RNA is strong. Originally I thought blocking can overcome, however in the end it makes sense that if the RNA is too deep, blocking will fail.
  22. EastonSN+
    Hopefully next year the opposite happens and we get that trough on the east coast and we get the winter the west had.
  23. EastonSN+
    If the snow event on the EURO and GFS come to fruition, and March does indeed end up being well above average temps, this year will be as close to a copy of 01/02 as you can get. Kind of amazing really.
  24. EastonSN+
    In the end, the RNA was/is too strong and pumps the ridge too far north. What could have been if the RNA was weaker
  25. EastonSN+
    Thanks Don. I like to take all 4 months of the winter for month over month we may have two extremely warm setups which lead to a high anomaly (in this case and extreme El Nino effect followed by the la Nina affect). I feel that it could have easily been flipped where December had the El Nino background and January could have had the December setup, thereby removing the back to back month record. Taking the winter as a whole, we remove the back to back potential (or at least mitigate). Not arguing at all, just my thought process.
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