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EastonSN+

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  1. EastonSN+
    What are your thoughts on this one? What worries me is this is the timeframe that the ensembles link the SER to the NAO. Given that I would think that the GFS is more right UNLESS the ensembles are in incorrect. I hope the EURO is right.
  2. EastonSN+
    Does anyone have the EURO Kutchera?
  3. EastonSN+
    With the way mid March looks, I think the chance of breaking the record is low.
  4. EastonSN+
  5. EastonSN+
  6. EastonSN+
    Yeah down to a half inch for CPK. So far GFS and GEM went a bit colder while the UKMET went warmer. I think the NWS is on target with their snowfall map.
  7. EastonSN+
    Massive difference between the GFS and GEM. GEM is a snow event for Virginia and NC.
  8. EastonSN+
    So although the GEM went a bit colder, like the GFS it also slightly cut the snow totals due to less intensity.
  9. EastonSN+
    It's crazy how different the GFS and GEM are for the 3/4 event. GFS goes right over us with rain while the GEM gives Virginia and NC snow. If I had to bet I would say the GFS is correct as this is the time the SER connects with the NAO. We shall see.
  10. EastonSN+
    Yeah I learned about it from TIP in the NE forum. RNA just means -PNA.
  11. EastonSN+
    Just did a comparison. Colder than 0z.
  12. EastonSN+
    I should add this is highly dependent on the RNA. If it stays be below -1sd then the target period can end up a bust. RNA driving the bus (a factor of the Aleutian ridge due to la Nina).
  13. EastonSN+
    The EPS is warmer with the warmup and colder with the target period. The warmup with be 2 to 5 days while the Target period is 7 plus days.
  14. EastonSN+
    Oh yeah.
  15. EastonSN+
  16. EastonSN+
    Yeah just loaded about the same temps. 12z stays snow longer but ends up with slightly less snow due to a drop in intensity.
  17. EastonSN+
    I think the soundings fail to see the temporary temp drop during increase in intensity. For CPK will be highly dependent on the rates rather than colld air in place.
  18. EastonSN+
    Stole from MA forum. Agrees with the GEFS.
  19. EastonSN+
    FWIW NAM was a tick colder at 12z than 6z. My RGEM has not yet loaded to no idea on if the RGEM was colder or warmer than 6z.
  20. EastonSN+
    We need a storm to loop SE of LI like 78/1888 lol So rare to get that done. Of course 1996/2006/2010/2013 were bulls eyes. However it seems like the SE of LI loop track is extremely rare.
  21. EastonSN+
    Yup. Also forgot to through in 17/18 and 20/21 which were amazing for WCT.
  22. EastonSN+
    Thanks as always Don. It will be interesting to see how March affects this year's rankings. We will have a large warmup around the 5th while the 10th onwards looks below average (duration up in the air). Going to be a nail biter.
  23. EastonSN+
    No we have had a lot of good setups. I think the perception changed with the 14/15 season where the eastern areas started raking while we got a good amounts but less (i.e. 7 inches January 2015 while eastern areas had feet plus). We did great 2000 through 2014.
  24. EastonSN+
    Still on track for our cold/potentially snowy period starting approx 3.10 1. There will be a big warm up around the 5th where the SE Ridge links with the NAO. 2. The RNA rises and the AO falls for approx the 10th. The ensembles are in agreement. Big question on the duration. Warmup Window
  25. EastonSN+
    I see what he is saying though. 00 through 2012 it almost never snowed in March while it snowed in December a lot. Conversely, 2013 through now March has been snowier than December. Side note - the former had wayyy warmer springs while the latter has had wayyy warmer Falls.
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