Blizzard of 93

The 12z GFS today gave an example of the type of storm that this pattern could deliver. I would sign up for this storm right now! Again, we just need to be patient!

Here is the 7 day pattern on the 12z EPS for the first week of January. I also included the 7 day precip anomaly showing above normal precip up and down the East coast. It is like someone allowed @pasnownut and I to draw the map! We just need to be patient and this pattern should deliver some snow by the first week of January.

I agree... but I’m just happy to be going to sleep on the night before Christmas Eve with a good amount of snow on the ground. We might lose most of it tomorrow except for the large plowed and shoveled piles. Hopefully we can manage a dusting to perhaps a heavy coating on Christmas morning to add to the festivities.

Once the blocking gets established and migrates to a slightly more west based -NAO position, we should be back in the snow business. If the system towards New Year’s Eve can come out in pieces, it would allow it to be more progressive to perhaps slide under us. The blocking looks to be sustained in the long range and the AO & NAO are forecasted to remain negative over at least the next 2 weeks. If we remain patient, we should receive the snow goods eventually in this pattern.

Patience is the key... just like in early December when it looked like we would have chances, it just took a little time. It will be tough to not score a decent winter Event or two by the first week of January with the blocking pattern setting up.

The 0z Euro has a Winter Storm for us right in time to say goodbye to 2020! The low tracks from the TN/NC border to just off of the DelMarVa at the end of the run. It looks to be a slow mover with the blocking, so there would be more to follow if the run kept going.

We soon will be tracking a specific winter storm threat for next week. This week kind of reminds me of the first week of December when we knew the pattern looked to have potential. We knew there were chances upcoming, but we could not yet pinpoint which storm would deliver the goods, which arrived in a big way last Wednesday. There appears to be chances on the horizon next week in the early, middle & latter part of New Year’s weekend. Which one will be the one, or will we have multiple chances to cash in? The -AO & -NAO support our chances along with an active pipeline of storms. Models usually struggle with a developing blocking pattern, so it will probably take a few days to hone in on the specific threats.

It should be exciting times on here over the holidays...tracking and more tracking!

In the short term, there is some light snow on the way by tonight in CTP from a Clipper. Maybe I will get a car topper tonight while @MAG5035 is shoveling a few inches of snow. Here is what CTP sai this morning. “A fairly vigorous northern stream upper short-wave and clipper type surface system will bring a period of snow to central PA tonight, with the greatest duration and intensity of the snow found from I-99 westward. Although most areas between I-99 and I-81 will only see light accumulations (and just a dusting across the Lower Susq Valley), the higher terrain of the Alleghenies in Northern PA could see an inch or two of snow locally.”

The 6z GFS delivered a storm on New Year’s Eve that illustrates well the potential of this pattern that @showmethesnow discussed above!

Great post @showmethesnow ! This pattern coming up beginning next week could really deliver the winter storm goods, Hopefully we get a little Christmas snow on the back end of the cold front to get the holiday party started.

I guess that you didn’t see what the 18z GFS had to say? A change to snow is very much on the table on Christmas Eve!

Let’s do this!

The 12z GFS continues to keep the Christmas Eve front more progressive with a change to snow for most of PA!

The 6z GEFS is really barking over the next 16 days. This map just as a general guide just screams with potential with the 7 inch or more snow line covering all of CTP. Now it’s just a matter of identifying the individual threats.

Yes, blocking can give models a tough time to resolve storms tracks at long range. The good part is that blocking is showing on most guidance. Someone in the Mid Atlantic forum recently said in reference to blocking, “If you build it, they will come”. I think we will see good storms showing on the models soon for the week between Christmas & New Years.

Hopefully it’s not long before we see DT say, ALEET , ALEET !!!

Also, today, do you think any of your snow might survive the trip over the mountains to the Susquehanna Valley?

The 6z GEFS is on board for Christmas post front snow as well for all of CTP!

The Christmas wave on the front idea improved the snow chances slightly on the GFS & Euro.

Congrats! Do you think that the Clipper on Monday night will produce much of anything outside of the mountains for the Susquehanna Valley?

Don’t worry, it the Christmas frontal snow doesn’t work out, we might not care that much, because we are busy tracking this potential coastal storm that could be en route a few days later according to the 12z GFS. This pattern is loaded with opportunities over the next few weeks!

Yes, several pieces to the puzzle at this time. It’s great to even be able to discuss even the chance of snow on Christmas Eve. If we are left with just the Ana-front potential as currently modeled, do you think that there would be enough moisture left behind the front from the trailing wave to deliver a few hour period of snow that could even put down a couple of inches of snow in the Susquehanna Valley?

Here is the 6z GFS for Christmas Eve night! Rain changes to snow as soon as the cold front comes through. This run verbatim it delivers 3 or 4 inches of snow to a good chunk of CTP just in time for Christmas!

The 6z GFS has a little period of light snow tomorrow for a good part of CTP.