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Blizzard of 93

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  1. Blizzard of 93
    The 18z GEFS also delivered some Christmas cheer with its best run in a long time. The mean snow amount this run for the LSV is 5 to 6 inches. Every GEFS ensemble member, except for 1, brings at least a few inches of snow to CTP through the end of the 16 day run. Ensemble Member E8 would be nice !
  2. Blizzard of 93
    The 12z EPS run today was the best in the last couple of days. We should have a few snow opportunities starting with this weekend & continuing through the first week of January. About 35 of the 50 EPS ensemble members brought at least a couple of inches of snow to CTP. There were several members that were heavy hitters. We should have a fun week of tracking!
  3. Blizzard of 93
    I got the Kocin-Uccellini -KU - Northeast Snowstorm books for Christmas!!! I have wanted these for years ! Hopefully we get another 1 or 3 legendary storms to add to the book this year !
  4. Blizzard of 93
    All I want for Christmas is for this 0z Euro Control run from last night to verify!
  5. Blizzard of 93
    Merry Christmas to all !
  6. Blizzard of 93
    Every good seasonal model & most long range pro forecasters have very much above average snow & cold for the rest of this season.
  7. Blizzard of 93
    Very Light flurries now in Marysville !
  8. Blizzard of 93
    The 12z GFS delivered 2 nice Christmas presents with snow events for CTP for this Sunday & again on New Year’s Day into the 2nd day of January. The maps below show the 2 events & then the first storm individual total & also the 2 event combined total.
  9. Blizzard of 93
    Thanks to the 8.8 inches of snow in November at MDT, Harrisburg is above normal snow for the season to date. According to CTP’s daily summary, MDT only averages 4.1 inches of snow through December 23rd. Even if it doesn’t snow until the first week of January & beyond, Harrisburg will still be in good shape to have another chance at an above average snowfall season.
  10. Blizzard of 93
    If we don’t score the first week of January, the potential pattern should get even better toward mid January & onward according to just about every long range & seasonal model. Anyway, We should have chances at snow by the first week of January.
  11. Blizzard of 93
    The first half of December was below normal. The second half of November was way below normal.
  12. Blizzard of 93
    I don’t think it will take a miracle.... The 12z Euro does show the snow north of the LSV, however the precip max again is over the LSV to the Lehigh Valley. Most of the precip falls after dark into 850 temperature air of less than -3. I think some of us could see the car tops & grassy surfaces covered.
  13. Blizzard of 93
    The differences between CTP & Mt. Holly are a little interesting along the border of the forecast offices.
  14. Blizzard of 93
    For tonight’s Christmas Eve Eve event, The 12z NAM ‘s brought better precip down to the I-81 corridor of the LSV & were also are slightly colder than recent runs.
  15. Blizzard of 93
    The latest GEFS run today continues to look good for snow chances for CTP. Most of the snow on this run arrives between New Year’s Eve & the first week of January.
  16. Blizzard of 93
    Thanks for getting this started! Here is some good news to start this thread. The 12z GFS gives us 2 snow storms. The first one arrives for New Year’s Eve & drops 3-4 inches of snow for CTP. The second one arrives on January 2nd & puts down another 2 or 3 inches of snow. This would be a great way to ring in the New Year!
  17. Blizzard of 93
    We need to change the momentum in here. The thread title still says “ Fall “ , but we are now in winter ! Maybe that will get things going in here & get @pasnownut to start getting more excited when I post snow maps overnight ?
  18. Blizzard of 93
    The period from New Year’s weekend to the first week of January look to be very active with a few winter storm chances. The general theme looks to be cold air pushing the boundary south of PA, with Lows then riding up the coast that deliver the snow to CTP. The Euro & GFS Ops & the ensembles are saying that we will be very busy here next week! All that I want for Christmas is for this Euro Control run to verily!
  19. Blizzard of 93
    The 0z NAM does like the idea of a little early Christmas Eve snow !
  20. Blizzard of 93
    The Euro weeklies look amazing beginning in early January! Game on !!!
  21. Blizzard of 93
    Even if we miss out on a little Christmas snow, the GEFS & EPS are looking promising in the day 10-15 window as we end 2018 & begin the new year. Snow amounts Have been increasing on the last few runs of each.
  22. Blizzard of 93
    Yes indeed ! The Euro has now shown this for a few model runs in a row, with the bullseye shifting north & south. I think most of would take this & run !
  23. Blizzard of 93
    We have a chance at some Christmas snow & everyone is here talking about Piedmont !
  24. Blizzard of 93
    The 0z Euro continued to like the idea of Christmas snow. It actually brought the second wave in slightly stronger & delivered the best amounts just to the south of CTP. Previous Euro runs had placed the bullseye near I-80. We still have plenty of time to go to work out the details, but I think this has a chance to bring a minor event to CTP for Christmas!
  25. Blizzard of 93
    The ensembles today continued to show improvement with the pattern change towards the end of December into early January. Snow amounts improved at 12z today for the day 10 to day 15 range over what they were showing the last several days.
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