Blizzard of 93

Good agreement between the 12z GFS & Canadian for our Tuesday snow this week. The next frame on the Canadian wasn’t available, hence the difference in end time on the 2 maps, but the precip was through in CTP with both posted maps. I would take 4 inches of snow followed by a few days of frigid temps to preserve it !

The ending dates & times are different on those 2 maps posted above.

The 3k NAM at 12z likes the idea of a few inches of snow by the end of Tuesday for most of us.

This is also NAM 10-1 ratio, & Kuchera ratio would more than likely bump these amounts up a bit.

The long range NAM at the end of its run is on board for our Tuesday snow. The event still would have a couple of more hours to go for most of us if the NAM went past hour 84.

Welcome to the forum ! The 12z Euro & Canadian agree on snow for us on Tuesday. We are only a few days out from a potentially nice light to moderate event. The Euro seems to be locked in the last few runs on the LSV getting 3-5 inches of snow by Wednesday am, with maybe more for our I-80 crew.

It’s going to be frigid for a few days, hopefully with a few inches of snow on the ground. And...your trash cans will probably get blown away by the wind again!

6z GFS agrees with the Euro for our snow chance on Tuesday into Wednesday am.

Maybe the 0z Euro & EPS will cheer you & everyone else up as well ? I’d sign up for this right now for 4-5 inches of snow by Wednesday am for the LSV !

Here is a great seasonal snow chart for Harrisburg from CTP’s website. The first year listed is 1980 & it ends with last year. We have been doing well in the snow department for 4 out of the last 5 years. This year, with 14.7 inches of snow in the bank through this date, has already surpassed some of the bad years that show on this seasonal chart.

Hello sir! Now is not the time to even begin to think about giving up! I will not give up until every last flake is done. Last year we got a few inches in early April ! Also, what “warmie” bad streak are you referring to... ? MDT has had Above normal snow 4 out of the last 5 years ! We have actually been on a good streak since 2014. It is only January 25th. We have over 2 months yet to score more snow. Also, MDT is Still currently Above normal snow for the season through today with 14.7 inches. Average seasonal snow through this date is 12.4 inches, so we actually have a 2.3 inch snow surplus! Hopefully the Euro leads the way to more snow this week !

Yes, our snow chances should soon improve. The blocking up top looks to be developing with a little time. Also, the MJO looks to be moving with amplitude toward phase 7 & 8 as we go through the first week of February. As you mentioned, with plenty of Artic air in the vicinity, we should be heading towards a more wintry pattern!

Great stats & great work on this ! The only thing jumping out to me that may need revised is with the February 2003 PDII storm, Harrisburg had near 20 inches for the combined snow total for the event. This will be a great reference for all of us!

A 970 low just off the Delmarva coast would have a much larger precip shield with a ton of moisture pushed well inland. Hopefully more Op & ensemble runs continue to show this potential over the next couple of days.

Yes, I’m getting excited for the multiple snow chances for the remainder of January. We have the chance of the follow up wave on Wednesday night & Thursday am. Then Sunday & Monday is loaded with potential if things time right there could be a major east coast storm, Then, some models like the idea of another storm to end the month next Wednesday & Thursday. Here is the GFS FV-3 for This Sunday night. Some other models have been showing this possibility the last few days as well. I would sign up right now though for this FV-3 solution !

Yes, Wednesday night & Thursday am need watched for a change back to snow with the secondary wave. The 18z NAM likes that idea .

The 12z Euro Op today brought 3 chances for snow in the next 10 days. First, there is a chance of a follow up wave later this week. Then Sunday into Monday there is a chance of a coastal storm. Then, the run ends with an over running storm that is underway that would still be snowing on us if the run extended 1 more day. Here is the 10 day Euro snow map.

I just finished shoveling & my 3 or so inches of snow that has turned into cement that will soon be freezing back over. That was a heck of a workout!

Stepping back for a moment, despite this storm falling short of expectations, this past week has been a good week for winter weather. We have had 3 snow events at MDT that have totaled 5.9 inches. This brings MDT’s seasonal total to 14.7 inches, which is 4 inches above the seasonal average through this date. Also, there should be a couple of possibilities this week for more ! Also, the Euro weeklies say that our pattern should be fantastic through February!

Temps across western PA are already in the teens. This front is approaching fast. It looks like we might have a chance for a short period of light snow as well before the storm exits.

Mostly sleet now in Marysville. We got about 3.5 inches before the changeover.

Best snow of the day in Marysville as well. Heavy snow with about 3 inches so far !

A little over 2 inches so far in Marysville with heavy snow falling!

Nice ! 1 to 2 inch per hour rates for a few hours ! That works for me ! What is the over-under for the time CTP puts a portion of the LSV back into a warning?

Yes! That’s the spirit ! Moderate snow in Marysville, all surfaces covered.