Blizzard of 93

The 6z GFS even though it has a different evolution that is further north than the Euro, still delivers a very good result for most of CTP.

The 0z EPS was a great run with just about every ensemble member low north of the 0z Euro Op. Most of the EPS members are tucked near the coast, some are inland and some just off of the DelMarVa. The EPS mean precip & snow map also increased for much of CTP.

ICON gets the 0z runs off to a Great start for CTP! It tucks the low in at the mouth of the Delaware Bay.

I was just mentioning my point in general terms about his posts, not just for this event.

I agree, it is way to early to worry about boundaries when the final track is far from set. Remember, for the December storm, that Binghamton, NY a couple of days before the event looked to be getting fringed with under 10 inches of snow and they ended up with 3 feet! Also, the day before the December storm, CTP had the 18 inch bullseye near Harrisburg & Carlisle with no mention of sleet. Harrisburg ended up with 11 inches. The CTP snow bullseye in reality ended up from I-80 on north where many places ended up with 2 feet! I like where we are sitting at this range.

Great to see you posting! I hope all is well and hopefully we will see you offer your thoughts & comments for the rest of the Winter and beyond.

Lol...This is the same guy that cancelled the blizzard of 2016 a few days before the event because of one off run of the Euro that took us from 2 feet down to 1 foot. He knows his stuff, but he is all over the place and likes to panic early & often!

The 18z EPS has a great look for the early week snow chance. The end of the 144 hour run has a great cluster of lows off of the coast of NC up towards the DelMarVa. The High is anchored over Quebec. There look to be a range from inland runners, coastal huggers to some off of the coast. This look should only improve as the few eastern outliers are reduced as the event nears. I really like where we are sitting for this event. Only 5 days to go until the storm gets underway in our region. Maybe this is the one?!?!

Here is that colorful snow map from the 18z GFS! CTP bullseye! The Euro is right where we want it at this range. Here we go again... maybe this is the one?!?

Maybe this will be the one that delivers this Sunday or Monday? The 0z Euro delivered a crushing snowstorm by early next week. All of the models show a storm. The details of course need sorted out over the next few days. Hopefully this time everything trends in the right direction for snow.

Lol....Did you not read my post??? I said snow to mix... No one thought this was a pure snow event. CTP is on their 5th idea of the day for this minor event!

This event is just getting started. There is more precip developing now in western and central PA. There is also a lot of precip to our south and west that will move through as snow to start and then become a mix by morning. Most models today didn’t even have precip starting in Harrisburg until near midnight.

The 12z Euro and the other 12z models today had a great look for a CTP snowstorm for Sunday into Monday! The ensembles support the chance as well and it’s only 5 or 6 days away. Maybe this will be indeed worth the wait.

Light snow for the last hour or so in Marysville with a light coating so far.

It would be nice if they made a forecast today and stuck with it before changing it 5 times before the event even gets underway.

Thanks, it looks like the radar is filling in to the west & southwest of PA which should get better precip going later on for south central PA.

Do you have a good local radar that you could post when the precip gets close to the LSV?

The last few hourly runs of the HRRR have been steadily boosting our little front end snow tonight in the LSV from near the river on west.

The 18z GFS gave a slight bump to the snow totals tonight over Harrisburg and York on westward in the LSV.

The 0z Euro still had the Miller B snow threat for next Monday for CTP. Only 1 MORE week away....!

The 6z Euro held the same decent look as 0z for the front end snow for the LSV and south central PA before the mixing takes place.

Here is part of the CTP forecast discussion this morning : “Low pressure will lift out of the Mississippi Valley and gradually weaken as it moves up the Ohio River Valley. Model consensus is to advect the leading edge of a relatively large area of light to moderate wintry precip northeast across the state this afternoon and early tonight. Sub-Zero C wet bulb temps will occur through a deep enough layer this afternoon through early tonight to support a few to several hour period of snow and accums generally around 1.5-2 inches followed by a several hour period of sleet in most places late tonight and early Tuesday. This will be a widespread, moderate impact weather evening with a layering of a few inches of snow, topped by a thin layer of sleet and freezing rain.”

Winter Weather Advisory URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service State College PA 329 AM EST Mon Jan 25 2021 PAZ010>012-017>019-027-028-045-049-050-056-057-059-066-252300- /O.NEW.KCTP.WW.Y.0005.210126T0500Z-210126T1800Z/ Elk-Cameron-Northern Clinton-Clearfield-Northern Centre- Southern Centre-Mifflin-Juniata-Southern Clinton-Union-Snyder- Perry-Dauphin-Lebanon-Lancaster- Including the cities of St. Marys, Ridgway, Emporium, Renovo, DuBois, Clearfield, Philipsburg, State College, Lewistown, Mifflintown, Lock Haven, Lewisburg, Selinsgrove, Newport, Harrisburg, Hershey, Lebanon, and Lancaster 329 AM EST Mon Jan 25 2021 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 1 PM EST TUESDAY... * WHAT...Mixed precipitation expected. Total snow and sleet accumulations of up to two inches, followed by ice accumulations of up to one tenth of an inch. * WHERE...Portions of central Pennsylvania. * WHEN...From midnight tonight to 1 PM EST Tuesday. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions could impact the tuesday morning commute.

The 0z Euro, Control run & EPS each improved over the last few runs for the snow potential with the front end of the storm Monday night into Tuesday am.

The 18z EPS also improved for the front end snow tomorrow night for the Susquehanna Valley west of the river.