Blizzard of 93

Looks like a very cold night tonight! Unfortunately for us, the light event tomorrow is not getting north of BWI, but good to see those folks getting the chance to score a little snow. This coming week we need to see if we can get some table scraps from any of these Clippers. The advertised pattern for the next few weeks should keep us mostly in the game. Hopefully it’s just a matter of time before we are back to tracking a specific chance for more snow.

Still showing MM for the snow measurement at MDT in the overnight climate summary. They must be really stumped on this one.

6z Euro keeps the LSV in the game for a light snow chance on Friday.

After further review of the minute breakdown of MDT’s observations, approximately .35 of precip fell today as snow or snow/sleet mix. MDT showed 1 inch snow depth at 7 am on only .07 of precip, so there must have been decent ratios early on. It then proceeded to snow or snow/sleet mix there for over 3 more hours. As I mentioned, MDT recorded snow or snow/sleet mix from around 5:30 am until around 10:15 am before the full flip to freezing rain. Based on this & surrounding observations, hopefully we get a MDT official reading near @canderson prediction of 2.5” snow for the event.

I was on a Teams call today & one of the guys was located in Middletown directly across the street from MDT. I watched it snow heavily through his window on my screen between 9:30 & 10.

Look again… it’s predominantly snow or snow/mix until a little after 10 am…

Soon my friend, hopefully you & the Lanco crew cash in on the next one! The pattern looks potentially active through the next week, so hopefully it won’t be long until we are back tracking a specific chance.

“MM” at the 5 pm daily climate report. We will need to wait until the overnight climate summary. Based on the the observations, MDT stayed mostly snow or snow/sleet mix until a little after 10 am. I think your call of 2.5 has a chance to be right!

I ended up with 3 inches of snow & sleet in Marysville that were compacted into cement by the time I shoveled this evening. This stuff was heavy & provided quite a workout. My back is barking already!

CTP is going to make us wait for MDT’s official measurement today. The 5 pm climate summary just has “MM” now.

Moderate snow in Marysville continues with eyeballing over 1 inch covering all surfaces.

Snowing in Marysville with all surfaces lightly covered at 6 am.

School here is cancelled for Susquenita.

0z GFS holding strong for even the LSV

27 temp 20 dew point Bring it!

I really like seeing current temps region wide in the 20s with dew points in the upper teens at this hour.

Notable bump southeast on the 0z 3k NAM from its 18z run, which helps York & Lanco 0z top 18z bottom

18z EPS was also a step in the right direction, even for the York & northern Lanco crew.

The 18z Euro improved over 12z for Harrisburg & York.

CTP with a very detailed forecast here : SHORT TERM /3 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... Quick moving storm to bring the first widespread plowable snowfall of the season to central PA early Tuesday. The snow accumulation will result in travel impacts and disruptions for the Tuesday morning commute to work and school. Key Takeaways/Messages: *Snow onset 3-6AM window from west to east (give or take 1hr) with temps cold enough to support accumulation and deteriorating road conditions *Heaviest snow 5-10AM west to 7AM-12PM east with rates generally <1 in/hr (0.50-0.75" range) *Snow end time 10AM-2PM west to east; snow showers or flurries linger through the evening downwind of Lake Erie over the western Alleghenies and Laurel Highlands *Total snowfall in the 2-4/3-5" range for most of the area; exceptions are the far southeast (lower amounts 0.5-2") due to rain/wintry mix and the Coal region into the Poconos (higher amounts 4-6") *Sullivan County has the highest probability (50-70%) of localized snowfall >6" *Snow character will initially be on the dry side with temps in the 20s but trend wetter/slushy as temps rise near/above freezing by the early afternoon *No significant wind impacts expected with this system; winds will increase early Tuesday night with gusts up to 20 mph We are most confident in a widespread moderate to high end winter wx advisory scenario given the fast moving nature of the system. We anticipate the highest snowfall totals over the northeast to east-central quadrant of the CWA or to the east of US-15 and north of I-81/I-78. Any melted snow or slush will refreeze Tuesday night with low temps in the lower 20s.

CTP : SYNOPSIS... * The first widespread plowable snowfall of the season will cause travel impacts and disruptions early Tuesday * Arctic cold front will deliver snow showers/squalls and bitter cold temperatures Thursday through Friday morning * Reinforcing cold blast will ensure the first part of December will be colder than the historical average with the potential for another storm system this weekend or early next week

The 18z GFS says hello!

I’ll be sleeping because it is not supposed to start until closer to 6 am, Lol!

I like this CTP call for most of the region, but I think a few lucky spots could get closer to 5 depending on where the heaviest bands set up.