I agree, most of the time snow maps are slightly over inflated in general across Pivotal, WB, etc.
The various models “spin the wheel” for the jackpot areas run to run.
I like them for a general idea of a range for expectations. I’ve learned to throw out the higher end outliers, but the low end outlier is often not the best.
Just as most things in life in general, the real answer usually ends up in the middle.