Blizzard of 93

If this 18z GEFS look is legit…

The 12z EPS is on board with the party starting on the 13th at the end of its 15 day run & the Canadian ensemble is on board as well with the good look as well. Better tracking days should be ahead.

The 18z GEFS is really ready to party beginning by the 14th.

6z GEFS kicks the trough out of the SW & 0z Canadian ensemble has the trough fully in the east by day 16. Both have decent ridging on the west coast up into Alaska.

Why am I looking forward to the NAM to track this mid week clipper for a chance at a dusting to an inch? Sick hobby… lol!

I wasn’t necessarily referring to you, but this is not the time to get nervous in my opinion based on most guidance for February. I also disagree that this Winter has been bad so far. December was bad with minimal snow for most outside of a car topper or 2 in early December. January produced 3 plowable snowstorms for many of us in here. MDT is going to finish just above normal snow for January even if nothing more is measured in the last few days of the month. February & March will tell the final story of the Winter, but we still have the chance to make this a really good snow year. A 3 or 4 week snowy period could get it done.

Good points…. However, those that “punt” say it definitively… Why the heck is it wrong to be positive & confident definitively? I agree, only time will tell how it plays out in the next 2 months.

Lol, what can I can…I’m confident…. I guess it’s just easier to say “punt” just to protect “feelings”..? lol… All guidance, most respected posters & pro forecasters say it’s coming… I’m not conjuring this up….

The Weeklies are run off of the previous day’s 0z run…. The bottom line is the progression continues to push the trough out of the southwest in that time period. The Weeklies are not kicking the can whatsoever for days on end.

In summary, the Euro Weeklies, the GEFS extended & even the CFS all say Winter is coming back, in what could be a very good way, in February.

The GEFS extended is also on board for a good looking February pattern from the 12th to 19th & the 19th to 26th & continues through the end of the 35 day run

I’m getting extra gas for my snowblower in February…. Everyone should rest up for all of the late nights of tracking coming up next month….

Patience….it’s coming back… the best part of our Winter lies ahead…

The good pattern then continues yet again on the latest Weeklies from the 18th to the 25th & the 25th to the 3rd of March.

Here are the single day snapshots from the latest Euro Weeklies for Valentine’s Day evening & President’s Day.

The latest Euro Weeklies today advance the trough by the 12th further to the east vs. yesterday’s Weeklies run. Today’s run top Yesterday’s run bottom

The Ukie does look to have a strong storm in the Southwest US and the ridging is further back in central Canada, even more so than the Canadian run. Just need that storm off of the east coast to ease up & get out of the way.

Welcome back!

Canadian was a little more robust with the mid week Clipper for the LSV.

Ohhh Canada indeed… right where we want it 8 days out…hopefully it’s on the right track. Here’s a regional view of the Canadian.

Next up is the mid week Clipper that could bring many of us a solid coating or car topper to pad a few tenths of snow to our totals.

12z GFS is still saying even parts of the LSV flips to wet snow later on today.

It had to be done… lol…

ALL 3 main global ensembles show the trough getting kicked out of the SW & ridging developing on the west coast. Here is the 0z GEPS on day 13 & 16.

Same general theme on the 6z GEFS. The trough is getting kicked out of the SW & ridging is developing on the west coast at day 16. Here are day 13 & 16 on the 6z GEFS.