Blizzard of 93

Currently 30 in Marysville.

I think me, you, @CarlislePaWx & @canderson could be in a good spot tomorrow am!

Pretty good consensus from the American & Canadian short range models. Will they actually be right ? Stay tuned until tomorrow am!

I’m not sure what was posted earlier, but here are some of these 18z model runs for the front end potential tomorrow.

The 18z models are looking good for the Harrisburg area & points to the west. Decent consensus from the 18z HRRR, 3k NAM, RGEM, HRDPS & GFS. It will be interesting to see exactly where the snow vs. rain line sets up tomorrow am.

Cheer up @Bubbler86 You are under an ALEET!

MDT is running -0.9 in temps for the month to date. We have had issues with placement of features, timing and storm track….but cold air has not been the issue this month for the lack of snow thus far.

Low of 19 in Marysville this morning!

Happy Winter Solstice everyone!

ALEET! Just for @Bubbler86 & @MAG5035 at this time. Perhaps more counties later on?

Winter Weather Advisory URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service State College PA 338 AM EST Wed Dec 21 2022 PAZ025-026-034>036-212300- /O.NEW.KCTP.WW.Y.0027.221222T1000Z-221222T2000Z/ Blair-Huntingdon-Bedford-Fulton-Franklin- Including the cities of Altoona, Huntingdon, Mount Union, Bedford, McConnellsburg, and Chambersburg 338 AM EST Wed Dec 21 2022 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 5 AM TO 3 PM EST THURSDAY... * WHAT...Mixed precipitation expected. Total snow accumulations of 1 to 3 inches and ice accumulations of up to one tenth of an inch. * WHERE...Blair, Huntingdon, Bedford, Fulton and Franklin Counties. * WHEN...From 5 AM to 3 PM EST Thursday. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions will impact the morning commute and holiday travel. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Wintry mix should transition to rain during the mid to late afternoon.

This is no ordinary cold front. I think that GFS run last night was crazy & not happening. I think a dusting to solid coating is in play for most of us.

The high res Canadian short range HRDPS only goes out to 48 hours, so it does not go out to the back end time range. It does like the front end for I-81 west & north.

It’s time for the high res 3k NAM in this scenario…see my post above.

The 6z short range Canadian RGEM likes front end snow for most outside of Lancaster (unfortunately…. I am rooting for you guys to score!} Not much of anything on the back end this run.

There should be sudden rapid temperature drop as soon as that front crosses. It won’t take much to whiten up the ground and keep it for Christmas with the frigid temps. I am hoping for a solid dusting to remain for Christmas.

Lol…It might be time for you to take a break….check back in here in a few weeks….

The Lancaster & Lebanon crew will like the 3k NAM at 6z. Most of this is from the back end for Harrisburg, York, Lancaster this run.

Here is the 0z Euro. Most is from the front end potential this run.

The 0z RGEM brings the best run yet for front end snow for the LSV. @paweather & @Itstrainingtime will even approve of this run!

The Euro, RGEM & HRRR all have the front end snow slightly further east Ethan the NAM.

I’m feeling good about at least a dusting for most of us after the front. Some lucky spots could get a little more.

We will get some more snow on the back end once the front moves through & puts us in the freezer.

CTP is ramping things up a bit for Thursday and Friday. The temp swings will be wild as well. Thursday Snow likely before 10am, then rain and snow likely between 10am and 1pm, then rain after 1pm. High near 50. Light east wind increasing to 5 to 9 mph in the morning. Winds could gust as high as 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible. Thursday Night Rain. Low around 45. Breezy, with an east wind 16 to 22 mph, with gusts as high as 39 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New precipitation amounts between 1 and 2 inches possible. Friday Rain showers before 10am, then rain and snow showers between 10am and 1pm, then a slight chance of snow showers after 1pm. High near 50. Breezy. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible. Friday Night Mostly cloudy, with a low around 10. Breezy.

Good trends, hopefully 0z treats us well.