Blizzard of 93

Here is the 0z GEFS snow map for the few day period of this storm.

Here is the 0z GEFS

No, I’ll take a look.

Great mean track as it strengthens while traveling up just off of the coast.

Here is the 0z GFS Kuchera

0z GEFS is looking very nice…..!

Here is a look at the 0z GFS

Yes indeed! Long way to go, but good sign that the GFS hasn’t caved & the ICON came around to support the GFS tonight.

Good points, 24 to 48 hours ago the Euro & Canadian both had good snow runs for us. Lots still to be resolved.

This from DT’s blog this evening: “Therefore at this time I do not consider the12z Fri operational European in the Canadian models to be Valid. Of course, I could be wrong. Patterns / wave physics over models!”

Here are the member low locations on the 18z GEFS. This is not yet yet decided.

Here is more from the 18z GEFS.

Here is a small part of JB’s post from this afternoon: “remember all these changes to rain on the coast and with good reason. The ridge was back near Boise. The rule is Grand junction longitude for the coast if full amplification So while it will snow in the big cites at the start and end and we may have a real doozy of a freeze up, I think it will change to sleet and rain for a time.” He said this storm reminded him of the Blizzard of March 93, Feb of 72 & January of 66. His quote above referenced these storms that changed to mix & rain on the coast & I-95.

18z GEFS snow

Good post from a good poster from another forum : “Honestly I take the 18z GFS/GEFS as a win. It is still handling the TPV completely different vs other models. However, since we’re not getting a really good cold shot prior to main wave need the main shortwave to not come into conus as strong as 18z gfs had it. This run wasn’t far from a big hit imo 18z GEFS much snowier vs 12z im telling ya guys, that wasn’t a cave. Not even close”

Good thing the storm didn’t happen yet… 6 days away…

No model is right or wrong yet! No forecaster or poster on here is right or wrong yet! Long way until this is resolved!

Yes, but that is why looking at the low locations can help to determine the different camps of lows and to see the trends. Outliers can skew the mean, but if you factor those out, it gives you a much better idea at this range.

True, but much less bounce on the ensembles!

We are very much in the game, hopefully 12z runs are good, but ensembles will still be best until at least Monday.

Here are the 6z GEFS & 0z Euro snow maps for the few day period ending Christmas Eve morning (these exclude today’s storm for the Northeast).

The 6z GEFS also has a strong signal for a storm along the coast by next Friday am.

It is best at this range to still lean on the ensembles. The Op runs will continue to bounce around for a few more days. The 0z EPS has a strong signal for a storm along the coast by next Friday morning.

Lol, it’s probably good that I wasn’t able to post much today. i will be better off in the long run with a little extra rest! I have the feeling that that there will be many long nights of tracking this week!

I agree, it is good to keep expectations reasonable for now….but this pattern next week has the potential to be a major storm just before Christmas that we remember for a long time. At the very least, we have a very high chance of seeing a white Christmas even if we just get a lower impact event next week.