Blizzard of 93

It’s likely a brief reshuffle & then back to a favorable pattern with chances by the end of the first week of January.

It just worked last March, I think around March 10th or so. Temps dropped from the 40s to the 20s in the span of an hour or 2. Brief rain turned to moderate to heavy snow as soon as the front passed through. I scored around 5 inches of snow from about 6 hours of good snow. I think MDT recorded 2 or 3 inches. Most of us had a good Advisory event out of anafront snow…in March, just last year!

12z Euro snow map.

The 12z Euro shows that we can still score a little snow out of this if the track ends up this way. There is the chance of a little front end snow from the initial coastal. Then, as the Arctic front approaches, there may be energy left behind for a period of snow as the front crosses & temps crash.

12z GEFS still shows there are ways to score good snow even if we don’t get the best solution/track this week.

The 12z GEFS took a step in the wrong direction. Still some ensemble members that can work for us, but it trended the wrong way this run, with more inland/cutter tracks.

Yes, let’s see where things go over the next 48 hours before anything locks in.

Lots of room in all directions for us to score something this week.

6z GEFS for the period end Christmas Eve

Also, sign me up for the 6z GEFS

Where do I sign for the 6 GFS?

Here is the 0z GEFS snow map for the few day period of this storm.

Here is the 0z GEFS

No, I’ll take a look.

Great mean track as it strengthens while traveling up just off of the coast.

Here is the 0z GFS Kuchera

0z GEFS is looking very nice…..!

Here is a look at the 0z GFS

Yes indeed! Long way to go, but good sign that the GFS hasn’t caved & the ICON came around to support the GFS tonight.

Good points, 24 to 48 hours ago the Euro & Canadian both had good snow runs for us. Lots still to be resolved.

This from DT’s blog this evening: “Therefore at this time I do not consider the12z Fri operational European in the Canadian models to be Valid. Of course, I could be wrong. Patterns / wave physics over models!”

Here are the member low locations on the 18z GEFS. This is not yet yet decided.

Here is more from the 18z GEFS.

Here is a small part of JB’s post from this afternoon: “remember all these changes to rain on the coast and with good reason. The ridge was back near Boise. The rule is Grand junction longitude for the coast if full amplification So while it will snow in the big cites at the start and end and we may have a real doozy of a freeze up, I think it will change to sleet and rain for a time.” He said this storm reminded him of the Blizzard of March 93, Feb of 72 & January of 66. His quote above referenced these storms that changed to mix & rain on the coast & I-95.

18z GEFS snow