Blizzard of 93

The CTP forecast for Marysville has the look of Winter weather chances upon us this week. Saturday Night A chance of snow after 1am, mixing with rain after 4am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 33. East wind 5 to 7 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible. Sunday Rain and snow likely, becoming all rain after 1pm. Cloudy, with a high near 39. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible. Sunday Night Mostly cloudy, with a low around 34. Monday Partly sunny, with a high near 41. Monday Night Mostly clear, with a low around 25. Tuesday Sunny, with a high near 39. Tuesday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around 24. Wednesday A chance of rain and snow. Partly sunny, with a high near 39. Chance of precipitation is 40%. Wednesday Night Rain, snow, and sleet likely. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 31. Chance of precipitation is 60%. Thursday Rain, snow, and sleet likely. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 42. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

This could be a great couple of weeks of tracking just in time for the Holidays!

The can kicking is done…we have lots to track next week…buckle up!

The end of the 6z NAM looks more weak than the GFS & Canadian this run for Sunday, but it does have some snow for most of us.

Here is the CTP forecast for Pillow for this Sunday. Saturday Night A chance of snow after 1am. Cloudy, with a low around 32. Chance of precipitation is 30%. Sunday Rain and snow likely, becoming all rain after 1pm. Cloudy, with a high near 41. Chance of precipitation is 70%.

The 6z GFS keeps the Sunday snow chance mostly north of I-80 in PA this run.

The 0z Canadian looked good for the Sunday snow chance for most of CTP.

Yes, the incredible snow map was posted in the Mid Atlantic thread a little earlier. We can all dream a Christmas dream!

The 18z GFS later in the run shows what this pattern change could have in store for us if all goes well. What a dream these 2 storms would be during the week before Christmas!

The models are now focusing on a system for Sunday that tracks to Ohio Valley & then jumps to the coast. We need to watch how this trends in the next couple of days in response to the blocking in place. The 18z GFS shows the Sunday snow potential for many in CTP.

Yes, the GFS has especially been a roller coaster lately, more than usual.

Slightly delayed, but not denied. The blocking period is just getting underway. These can take a little time to develop before we see our Winter storm chances emerge. I think we that we will have some chances to track this month.

It’s all good! Most of us regular posters know that posting a long range map with a few comments is not a forecast. It is just one of the possibilities in the range of outcomes that the particular model run showed. Other models could disagree or the pattern or storm type may not support the model run. It’s all just sharing and discussing the possibilities, whether it’s 1 week out or 1 day out.

The MU posts are great. Horst & the new MU guy really have fantastic analysis. I like when @Itstrainingtime posts their forecasts on here. We can then still discuss their thoughts and agree or disagree, as long as we have something reasonable to support it. Some of the Twitter Mets & pro/semi-pro forecasters on the Internet really do drive the hype, but I have learned to read between the lines & extract their ideas. I think the sports posts are good, especially when nothing major is going on with the weather. It’s all usually in good fun & it keeps the discussion going in here when the weather is not too exciting.

Looking at patterns 2 weeks out on ensembles helps to give us an idea of where we are possibly heading in terms of potential sensible weather. When the various ensembles agree and they don’t get pushed back in time, then we can reasonably expect that the advertised pattern is likely correct. The teleconnections that some of us post help to indicate where the pattern is potentially heading. They help to forecast where the ridges, troughs, etc. should be located that then will impact our storm tracks & air mass type. We all have varying levels of understanding these concepts. I have learned a ton from some good posters in here and the other regional forums. Discussion on the pattern & looking at the range of possibilities is what most weather boards are built upon. Sometimes advertised patterns come to fruition and other times they they never materialize, but it should always be ok to discuss and share our thoughts & analysis. The thrill of the chase, especially in the Winter, is what keeps me coming back here every day!

Lol, how much is the fee? Maybe we could start a go fund me for it!

We need to try to all get along on here! We all have different posting styles & tendencies. There are many running jokes & funny references that go back years in some cases. Sometimes, we talk about sports, even though we root for a variety of teams. It is all good with me. I have learned not to take anything personal on here. We all share a love for the weather, but we each have a different style of expressing our thoughts. I have never met any of you in person, but I feel like I know a decent bit about many of you. I look forward to visiting this place everyday!

12z Euro & 18z GFS like the idea of some snow on Friday for a good part of CTP.

Friday A slight chance of rain before 8am, then a chance of rain and snow between 8am and 2pm, then a chance of rain after 2pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 43. Chance of precipitation is 50%. Little or no snow accumulation expected. Friday Night Rain likely before 2am, then a chance of rain and snow. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 34. Chance of precipitation is 60%. Saturday A chance of rain and snow before 8am. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 42. Chance of precipitation is 40%.

The overnight & early morning models have weakened the Friday pm storm, but still show the chance for some light frozen precip for parts of CTP.

The 0z GFS has finally joined many other models showing the snow potential for Friday night.

The Euro & Canadian ensembles have a nice area of High pressure sitting in southern Canada funneling in the cold air to help to support the CTP snow chance Friday pm.

The 12z Canadian ensemble is on on board for Friday pm snow for CTP.

The 18z Euro ensemble still insists on bringing us Friday pm snow.

I’m searching everywhere for snow… The 18z ICON is on board with Friday pm snow.