The 0z EPS continues to show the Greenland block established by day 10 and further entrenched by day 15, with troughing developing in the east.
Our Winter Storm window should be wide open once this advertised pattern sets up.
The amount of blocking that is being well advertised by the ensembles should produce some crazy Op run solutions as we approach the true window of opportunity after day 10.
The 18z GFS just gave us one of these crazy solutions. The day 14 storm comes to a screeching halt off of the Mid Atlantic coast.
It’s always been at least after the 5th until the pattern change kicks in!
If the great look on the ensembles continues to hold as it has for days, we should have plenty to track after December 5th.
The 6z GEFS snow map through day 16 is the best widespread look so far in this early season with the 2 inch snow line getting well into Virginia.
I just use these long range ensemble snow maps as an indicator for pattern potential.
We have come a very long way with cutting into the + departure over the last 10 days thanks to the recent cold pattern.
It will be tough to bring it down much more with the forecast temperatures through the end of the month.