Blizzard of 93

Good post from a good poster from another forum : “Honestly I take the 18z GFS/GEFS as a win. It is still handling the TPV completely different vs other models. However, since we’re not getting a really good cold shot prior to main wave need the main shortwave to not come into conus as strong as 18z gfs had it. This run wasn’t far from a big hit imo 18z GEFS much snowier vs 12z im telling ya guys, that wasn’t a cave. Not even close”

Good thing the storm didn’t happen yet… 6 days away…

No model is right or wrong yet! No forecaster or poster on here is right or wrong yet! Long way until this is resolved!

Yes, but that is why looking at the low locations can help to determine the different camps of lows and to see the trends. Outliers can skew the mean, but if you factor those out, it gives you a much better idea at this range.

True, but much less bounce on the ensembles!

We are very much in the game, hopefully 12z runs are good, but ensembles will still be best until at least Monday.

Here are the 6z GEFS & 0z Euro snow maps for the few day period ending Christmas Eve morning (these exclude today’s storm for the Northeast).

The 6z GEFS also has a strong signal for a storm along the coast by next Friday am.

It is best at this range to still lean on the ensembles. The Op runs will continue to bounce around for a few more days. The 0z EPS has a strong signal for a storm along the coast by next Friday morning.

Lol, it’s probably good that I wasn’t able to post much today. i will be better off in the long run with a little extra rest! I have the feeling that that there will be many long nights of tracking this week!

I agree, it is good to keep expectations reasonable for now….but this pattern next week has the potential to be a major storm just before Christmas that we remember for a long time. At the very least, we have a very high chance of seeing a white Christmas even if we just get a lower impact event next week.

My Power is finally back on! Now….Back to tracking!

The 18z GFS certainly warmed my spirits! My house is down to 58 currently. The 18z GFS would be epic for Christmas Eve Eve!!!

Still no power for me in Marysville!

Radar looks juiced now to the west of the LSV. If this is all snow, I might be in business!

The 12z GFS run was beautiful for next week!

We lost power in the last hour in Marysville thanks to this freezing rain. Power lines are encased in ice, so that must have done it for my neighborhood!

This is great to see on my lunch break! Sure enough, flakes recently mixed in & I am now transitioning to mostly snow! SPC for the win!

31 & Freezing rain in Marysville. Everything is covered in a sheet of ice. Side roads look icy & cars are encased in ice.

That’s towards the end of the Euro event next week after a lot of snow has fallen across the entire region even down into MD. The trend overnight was very positive & the look at H5 is drool worthy.

Here is the updated WWA from CTP. They actually upped the snow/sleet amount in this Advisory to up to 4 inches to the north of I-81. Winter Weather Advisory URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service State College PA 348 AM EST Thu Dec 15 2022 PAZ036-056-057-059-063>066-160000- /O.CON.KCTP.WW.Y.0026.000000T0000Z-221216T0000Z/ Franklin-Perry-Dauphin-Lebanon-Cumberland-Adams-York-Lancaster- Including the cities of Chambersburg, Newport, Harrisburg, Hershey, Lebanon, Carlisle, Gettysburg, York, and Lancaster 348 AM EST Thu Dec 15 2022 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING... * WHAT...Mixed precipitation. Snow and sleet accumulations of up to 4 inches and ice accumulations of up to one tenth of an inch. * WHERE...Portions of central Pennsylvania. * WHEN...Until 7 PM EST this evening. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions will impact the morning commute. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...The gradient in snow and sleet accumulation will increase from southeast to northwest across the warning area with maximum snow and sleet to the north of I-81. Less than one inch of snow and sleet is expected to the south of US-30. A changeover to rain is expected in most places from south to north this afternoon.

Later this morning according to CTP and the GFS. Should be mixed with sleet as well.

Here is the 6z GFS Kuchera snow map.

The 6z GFS is still insisting that areas north of the PA turnpike flip to snow later on today. The GFS is on its own right now, but it’s fascinating to see if it will score a win or take a loss on this event. I’m rooting for the GfS upset win, but I’m also not expecting it…

Yes, and the Canadian & GFS at 0z also had Winter storms in the 22/23 period but not as extremely good as the Euro at this time.