Blizzard of 93

Lol, just because I post the NAM doesn’t mean that I fully believe it. Just showing what the model says….

The 18z NAM looks good for the CTP snow chance on Tuesday pm.

Nice spot for the High to be sitting in Quebec to feed in some cold air on the 12z NAM.

12z NAM brings many of us snow Tuesday pm.

More CTP thoughts on the Tuesday snow chance for some of us. Short wave trof is forecast to round the base of the western upper trof and trek across the srn border of the CONUS, pass along the GOMEX coast and lift into the middle atlantic region by the middle of next week/end of the long term period. A blocking high over New England should provide the cold air for potential wintry precip over part of central Pa, as this feature lifts through late Tuesday into early Wed. Continued to bump up POPs for midweek with this system with rain over the southeast, a mix of rain/snow over central PA and the best chance for all snow over the northwest.

CTP is announcing the pattern change is here: SYNOPSIS... A significant pattern change from very warm to persistent cold will unfold across Pennsylvania in the wake of a heavy rain event associated with the remnants of Nicole. Periods of rain and snow showers are expected over the western and central Alleghenies this afternoon into tonight with a light snow accumulation in the favored snowbelts and higher elevations through Monday. Mixed precipitation could impact the area later Tuesday into Wednesday. The colder pattern is expected to have staying power with high confidence in below normal temperatures through next week.

With the additional rain overnight, I’m at 1.97 for the event.

Lol! Bring it! I truly would be happy with a dusting tho week to get it started!

The 0z Canadian then has another snow chance on Sunday night with a low that passes to our south. This storm has shown up off & on some model runs this week. I am just looking for first flakes this week & maybe a car topper if lucky.

The 0z Canadian did indeed look like the model of choice for the Tuesday night snow chance.

It’s that magical time of the year when I am looking forward to the 0z NAM!

Great to see you back to posting!

@Bubbler86 Do you think that all of the rain in western PA, WV & western VA will swing through CTP tonight?

Lol, how about the Happy hour GFS! It brings a little snow Tuesday night to CTP.

I’m at 1.54 currently for this event.

What’s the old saying…hug the weather model that gives you the most snow? That means that I’m hugging the 12z Canadian for Tuesday night.

CTP is mentioning snow with the rain in the Tuesday night forecast for the Harrisburg area. Tuesday Night A chance of rain before 11pm, then a chance of rain and snow. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 32. Chance of precipitation is 50%. Wednesday A chance of rain and snow. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 45. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

The 0z Euro & Canadian also have this possible event on Tuesday night. The Euro is stronger & warmer and the Canadian is weaker, but colder this run. Hopefully we at least have the chance at first flakes next week!

The 0z GFS brings a little snow to many of us on Tuesday night.

6z GFS again has a Winter storm chance for us next Friday.

18z GFS has a winter storm chance for us next Friday.

Meanwhile in Bismarck, ND …… Blizzard Warning URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Bismarck ND 428 PM CST Wed Nov 9 2022 NDZ022-023-025-034>037-042-045>048-050-100630- /O.CON.KBIS.BZ.W.0007.221110T0600Z-221111T0600Z/ /O.CON.KBIS.WW.Y.0020.000000T0000Z-221110T0600Z/ Sheridan-Wells-Foster-Morton-Burleigh-Kidder-Stutsman-Grant-Sioux- Emmons-Logan-La Moure-McIntosh- Including the cities of Harvey, Carrington, Edgeley, Napoleon, Fessenden, Mcclusky, Steele, Jamestown, Selfridge, Wishek, Kulm, Carson, Goodrich, Ashley, Linton, New Leipzig, Gackle, Strasburg, Elgin, Lamoure, Mandan, Bismarck, Solen, Fort Yates, and Tappen 428 PM CST Wed Nov 9 2022 /328 PM MST Wed Nov 9 2022/ ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST/11 PM MST/ TONIGHT... ...BLIZZARD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT CST /11 PM MST/ TONIGHT TO MIDNIGHT CST /11 PM MST/ THURSDAY NIGHT... * WHAT...For the Winter Weather Advisory, light freezing drizzle expected. Total ice accumulations around a light glaze. For the Blizzard Warning, blizzard conditions expected. Total snow accumulations between 12 and 18 inches. Winds gusting as high as 45 mph. * WHERE...Portions of south central and southeast North Dakota. * WHEN...For the Winter Weather Advisory, until Midnight CST/11 PM MST/ tonight. For the Blizzard Warning, from Midnight CST /11 PM MST/ tonight to Midnight CST /11 PM MST/ Thursday Night. * IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult to impossible. Widespread blowing snow could significantly reduce visibility.

32 this morning in Marysville.

The main 3 models each are now keying in on a storm chance Tuesday night & Wednesday with some cold air available for parts of CTP.

The 18z GFS is still trying to get a Winter storm brewing late next week. This is a period of interest, but mostly a miss to the south this run for CTP.