Blizzard of 93

The 12z Euro deepens a coastal low right into NYC on Friday night. This run is good enough to flip North central PA to snow. You might be in a good spot at your cabin on Friday night.

Yes, the models are correcting back to a strong storm towards the coast, but too far inland at this time. It’s Probably too late & too warm for most of us, but the final track is not yet written in stone.

Enjoy the brisket! Turkey week is upon us!

I had a scattered light dusting on the car tops early this morning. Yet again, I missed the actual snow falling from the sky, lol!

I don’t think the coastal storm threat for the end of this coming week can totally be written off yet. The 0z EPS still develops a coastal storm in the DelMarVa and tracks it up off of Long Island. If the coastal development takes place at that latitude, then it’s just a matter of how much cold air is available.

I got down to 21 last night in Marysville. Coldest morning this season.

CTP shows this for Thanksgiving in Harrisburg. Wednesday Night Mostly clear, with a low around 29. Thanksgiving Day Mostly sunny, with a high near 49. Thursday Night A chance of rain. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 36. Chance of precipitation is 40%.

The 12z GFS has a storm for late next week, but this is not the look that we want for snow around here. Plenty of time for changes either way.

Here is CTP’s timing of the squalls today.

I thought that you got a coating of snow from the storm on Tuesday?

I-81 also had that terrible chain reaction several dozen vehicle crash last year in a snow squall.

Here is CTP’s expected snow for today with the squalls.

Here are CTP’s thoughts for today’s snow squall potential: The better threat of heavier snow showers/squalls still looks to occur from about late morning through the afternoon hours, and mostly east of the I-99 corridor. Neutral sfc pattern to weak ridging will occur this morning, prior to a rather well-defined mid level vort max and left exit region of a 300 mb jet punching across the region this this afternoon (19-22Z West and 21-01Z Sat across the Susq Valley and points east). These weather features and a sharpening sfc trough will bring the threat of mainly isolated cellular combined with perhaps a quasi-linear band of heavy snow squalls within the timeframes noted above. The primary difference among guidance is variation in the amount of low level convergence along the front, which would determine the mode (single vs multiple bands) of any possible squalls. Given warm lakes and anomalously cold air means that this event could become hybrid and overperform due to the maximized lake air deltaTs. low-level wet bulb temps should be warm enough to support a mix of isolated to scattered and lighter, rain and wet snow showers prior to the late day arrival of any squalls across the Lower Susq Valley. The anticipated above freezing road temps across the Central Ridge and Valley Region and Susq Region will combine with low dewpoints, potential westerly wind gusts up to 35 mph and briefly heavy snow in the squalls to quickly drop road temps and bring the potential for localized flash freezes of the road pavement.

The overnight weather models have backed away from the storm threat late next week at this time, but the period still bears watching.

27 for a low here in Marysville as well.

Unfortunately nothing on the Euro this run. Canadian has a storm, but nothing like the GFS today. Let’s see what the EPS has to say a little later.

Lol! I’m off next week starting Wednesday until the following Monday! Lots of tracking, Turkey & football!

12z GEFS ensemble pattern supports the Op. run.

Yes, long way to go, but the pattern supports a storm in the east. This could be a fun week of tracking as we get ready for Turkey Day.

Lol, the crowd demanded it to be posted! Plenty of time to move this low 50 to 100 miles east!

This type of storm would fit the pattern. Look at this beautiful +PNA, -NAO & 50/50 low.

That High in Quebec stays parked there for the duration.

Still going as the low slams to a crawl in eastern PA.

This is one crazy slow moving storm as depicted on this 12z GFS run!