As @Bubbler86 mentioned, the 6z GFS has the Winter storm chance for next Friday.
There is a good High to our north feeding in cold air. The blocking pattern forces the low to redevelop off of the Notth Carolina coast as a stronger area of High pressure builds to our North.
Sign me & @paweather up please!
The overnight models looked to be keying on a potential Winter Storm around the 10th. Lots of time & many days to go, but the potential should be there with cold air available and the blocking in Greenland established.
Hopefully all of our dreams of record setting snow this Winter come true!
Met. Winter is finally here!
The upcoming pattern looks to be loaded with Winter storm potential….Let’s go!
The crazy solutions should now continue to show on the Op runs for the period between the 10th & 15th.
It should be just a matter of time until this blocking pattern produces a Winter storm for us.
Here is another look at the 12z GFS storm toward the end of its run.
The ensembles, 0z EPS & GEPS as well as the 6z GEFS, all have increased snow amounts over the next 16 days, most of it in week 2.
I just use these as an indicator for the response to the pattern change, but this is a good sign on these runs.
The 0z EPS continues to show the Greenland block established by day 10 and further entrenched by day 15, with troughing developing in the east.
Our Winter Storm window should be wide open once this advertised pattern sets up.
The amount of blocking that is being well advertised by the ensembles should produce some crazy Op run solutions as we approach the true window of opportunity after day 10.
The 18z GFS just gave us one of these crazy solutions. The day 14 storm comes to a screeching halt off of the Mid Atlantic coast.
It’s always been at least after the 5th until the pattern change kicks in!
If the great look on the ensembles continues to hold as it has for days, we should have plenty to track after December 5th.