Blizzard of 93

Here is a little more perspective… In the fabled Winter of 09-10, we only had 3 Winter storms in central PA. December 09 and the 2 early February storms. They happened to be major storms and that Winter will be forever remembered as epic. We had No snow in January or March! Maybe this year we get 2 great storms in February again and another good storm in early March?

Look back over the decades…. Many of our Winters that end up close to average are made up of a few good weeks of cold & storms. Maybe late January 20th to February 10th will be a good period with a few Warning level events? Then maybe we have 1 more good run from February 20th to March 10th that will bring us to near average for the season. Bottom line…lots of time yet to score snow.

Like I just posted…MDT only averages 7.4 through today’s date, so we really are not too far behind. We can make up ground quickly…

MDT is now at 2.9 inches of snow for the season through today. Normally MDT is at 7.4 inches of snow through today, so we have a deficit of 4.5 inches of snow at this moment. It would only take 1 Advisory level event to get us caught up right now….there is a long way to go yet in this snow season.

Hopefully we can get something out of this storm later in the week before we wait again for pattern improvement later this month.

MDT recorded 0.9 inches of snow today, which seems reasonable and representative of the surrounding areas.

Same here with a low of 29. The car tops & grass/trees have a nice coating of snow this morning. The roads didn’t cave, but it was a little slick when I just brushed off our vehicles.

There is a small yet decent little area of precip in western PA moving to the east. Hopefully many of us wake up to at least a dusting or coating of snow tomorrow.

I would take what the 0z FV3 is serving up for the Harrisburg area tomorrow morning.

The 18z Canadian RGEM has the “lol jackpot” near @Bubbler86 and @Cashtown_Coop but I’m rooting for the High res Canadian HRDPS …. Jackpots for me & MDT !

The 18z GFS has around 1 inch of snow for many of us by tomorrow morning.

Lol and watching a certain game that’s most often played on Sundays…!

You’ve gotta play to win….

6z Euro is closer to a Cashtown jackpot, lol.

6z NAMs have a MDT “jackpot” tonight.

The 0z NAMs & Canadians look good for 1 to 2 inches of snow tomorrow night.

No, it’s getting to my yard & to MDT to pad our awesome stats this season!

The 18z GFS provides hope for late next week with Warning level front end snow. Maybe we are still in the game …?

The 18z GFS has a similar idea as the NAMs with a max area down near DC and a second max area up to the north of Harrisburg. Hopefully someone in between these areas “jackpots” with 2 or 3 inches of snow by Monday morning.

18z NAMs & RGEM have the LSV light snow tomorrow night.

Lol, I think that CTP just coined a new storm type….” Kansas Klipper” !

Great forecast discussion by CTP for the snow chance tomorrow night. Lift ahead of the sfc low will generate precip out of the lowering deck, but initially dry llvls will resist it. By sunset, some snow is expected to hit the ground along the MD border, generally in the Laurels, but perhaps over closer to THV/LNS, too. The synoptic situation lends itself to some slantwise instability over the CWA, with banded precip likely. The intensity and placement of the band(s) is in question. These mesoscale features usually are at this range. While the details are not clear, the big picture is that most if not all of the precip over the CWA will be snow. The SLRs are expected to be rather low/wet (7-10:1). That`s a negative for big SF numbers, as is the forward speed (and lowresidence time) of the system. It`s much like a clipper, but coming more from the west than from Alberta (Kansas Klipper). However, most models make 0.10" of QPF over the srn half or so of the CWA, mainly between 00Z and 10Z Sun. A stripe of heavier (0.25") QPF is possible per the NAM and a couple of HREF members, but "Where?" is the question. At this point, the mean answer is somewhere between UNV and MDT, parallel and close to a JST-AOO-SEG-HZL line. The main takeaway at this time in the forecast was to raise the SF numbers to 1-2" in that area, and make mention of T-1" all the way south to the MD border. Will keep mentions of T-1" in a stripe of zones from Clearfield to Sullivan Cos. This should cover subsequent waggle(s) N and S of the focus for slightly heavier precip. All said, someone on the higher elevations in the Laurels and/or Ridge-and-Valley Region may get near 3". At this range and with the uncertainties of multiple items, there is no need for an advy anywhere - yet.

CTP is all in for a little snow tomorrow night in the Harrisburg area. Sunday Night Snow, mainly after 8pm. Low around 31. Light south wind. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of less than one inch possible.

I think the MJO will help the pattern improve for us over the next couple of weeks.