Blizzard of 93

No, it’s getting to my yard & to MDT to pad our awesome stats this season!

The 18z GFS provides hope for late next week with Warning level front end snow. Maybe we are still in the game …?

The 18z GFS has a similar idea as the NAMs with a max area down near DC and a second max area up to the north of Harrisburg. Hopefully someone in between these areas “jackpots” with 2 or 3 inches of snow by Monday morning.

18z NAMs & RGEM have the LSV light snow tomorrow night.

Lol, I think that CTP just coined a new storm type….” Kansas Klipper” !

Great forecast discussion by CTP for the snow chance tomorrow night. Lift ahead of the sfc low will generate precip out of the lowering deck, but initially dry llvls will resist it. By sunset, some snow is expected to hit the ground along the MD border, generally in the Laurels, but perhaps over closer to THV/LNS, too. The synoptic situation lends itself to some slantwise instability over the CWA, with banded precip likely. The intensity and placement of the band(s) is in question. These mesoscale features usually are at this range. While the details are not clear, the big picture is that most if not all of the precip over the CWA will be snow. The SLRs are expected to be rather low/wet (7-10:1). That`s a negative for big SF numbers, as is the forward speed (and lowresidence time) of the system. It`s much like a clipper, but coming more from the west than from Alberta (Kansas Klipper). However, most models make 0.10" of QPF over the srn half or so of the CWA, mainly between 00Z and 10Z Sun. A stripe of heavier (0.25") QPF is possible per the NAM and a couple of HREF members, but "Where?" is the question. At this point, the mean answer is somewhere between UNV and MDT, parallel and close to a JST-AOO-SEG-HZL line. The main takeaway at this time in the forecast was to raise the SF numbers to 1-2" in that area, and make mention of T-1" all the way south to the MD border. Will keep mentions of T-1" in a stripe of zones from Clearfield to Sullivan Cos. This should cover subsequent waggle(s) N and S of the focus for slightly heavier precip. All said, someone on the higher elevations in the Laurels and/or Ridge-and-Valley Region may get near 3". At this range and with the uncertainties of multiple items, there is no need for an advy anywhere - yet.

CTP is all in for a little snow tomorrow night in the Harrisburg area. Sunday Night Snow, mainly after 8pm. Low around 31. Light south wind. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of less than one inch possible.

I think the MJO will help the pattern improve for us over the next couple of weeks.

But just about every model shows a little snow tomorrow night in PA & MD…

Maybe this Winter will be like 14-15 when we went on a great run from late January through Mid March. There was not much before late January that year.

I might snow a little bit tomorrow night.

12z NAMs bring 1 to 2 inches of snow to much of southern PA.

The 6z GFS provides a little hope for CTP for the storm chance next weekend. This is still far from ideal, but I will take whatever snow I can get at this point.

The 0z Euro brings a little Sunday night snow to CTP.

Here is the 18z GEFS snow map for the period for next weekend. Still lots of options on the individual ensemble members.

The 18z GEFS still looks good for the storm chance next weekend. 7 days to go…let’s see what 0z brings…long way to go until any solution is locked in.

Exactly, I think the LSV is in a good spot for an Advisory minor event on Sunday night.

The 6z GFS for the coastal chance Next weekend gets Warning level snow to the LSV and gets heavier snow to the mid & upper Susquehanna Valley. If there is a little more cold air available towards the beginning of the storm, there is a lot of upside potential if this track is right. Verbatim this run, the Susquehanna Valley cashes in as the storm intensifies as it tracks from the DelMarVa to southern NJ.

The Sunday night minor event has a lot of support now on most models for maybe an inch or two of snow for many of us.

The 0z GFS & ICON both have the Sunday pm snow chance for southern PA.

Yes, I just was checking it out.

The 10-11 Winter was also a little below normal at MDT with just under 30 inches of snow. It was mainly a Winter of missed opportunities and could have been so much better with a few minor changes. We missed out on the Boxing Day December 2010 storm by about 100 miles. The big storms in January 2011 that crushed I-95 gave us a few 3 to 6 inch storms.

I would take what the 18z GFS offered for this Sunday night. Hopefully the other models come back around to give us the chance of an Advisory level minor event. It would be a nice appetizer event…

Yes, EPS today had a great signal for next weekend. Here is the snow for the next weekend period on the EPS.