Blizzard of 93

The 0z Euro continues to be steady by yet again tracking the Sunday pm low under PA bringing the chance for snow. Long way to go, but it’s good to see the Euro & GFS now coming to an agreement. Let’s hope that it holds and improves more this week.

The 6z GFS continued the positive trend for the Sunday pm and into Monday chance. This run the low tracks under PA and it has a rain to snow scenario.

Major change on the 0z GFS with the next Sunday event. 0z top & 18z bottom Lol, only a 4 state move east with the low…the trend is our friend.

The 0z ICON looks a lot like the 12z Euro and takes the storm next Sunday under us and along the Mid Atlantic coast bringing snow to most of us.

The V-day 07 storm was super frustrating in the Susquehanna Valley. Like you said, we waited all Winter for a major storm. The week prior, many model runs showed the Harrisburg area getting crushed with 1 to 2 feet of snow. Then, a couple of days before, the track ended up causing issues with the mid levels. We ended up getting a few inches of snow, and then about 18 hours of the heaviest sleet that I have ever experienced. It then flipped to snow on the back end and we picked up a couple of more inches. The highway shut downs were a major problem and vehicles were encased in the icy conditions. If I remember correctly it then got frigid for the week following the storm. It was a memorable event, but it was frustrating knowing that areas to the north & west got buried in heavy snow while we got the sleet fest.

The 12z EPS has good news as well with the temperatures. The above normal temperatures look to be done and workable temperatures near average are showing for the last week of the month. Average temperatures should work for frozen precip at the coldest average time of year in late January. Here are the average temperatures for the day 8-15 period from the 23rd to the 30th. This run also ends cold with below normal temperatures for us at day 15 on the 30th.

The 12z EPS has a very workable pattern for us. It’s not a major storm pattern, but I could see some light to moderate events with some snow to mix to rain scenarios. Here is the 12z EPS look at day 8 and then the 8-15 average look for the 7 day period from the 23rd to the 30th.

Update…. I did not lose any trash cans! One was displaced about 20 yards down the street, but luckily it was not gone with with wind.

I think there is a good chance for a Winter event or 2 for us before January is over.

The 12z Euro continues to look different than the other weather models for the Next Sunday night into Monday chance. The Euro depiction is exactly what we would need to have a chance with this one. The Euro is more progressive and brings the wave out quickly. The GFS & Canadian bury the energy in the south central states and delay the storm, which allows the ridge to pump in the southeast, forcing the storm to cut west. Let’s hope the old king regains his crown this time!

Good point, thanks, I’ll check the schedule. The holiday might give me 1 extra day to find the cans!

I need to take my trash out later, but I’m really not sure if my trash cans will still be there!

There is Still a disagreement on the 0z models for the next Sunday night into Monday period. The GFS & Canadian amp the system up & cut the storm to our west, bringing rain. The Euro solution puts us in the game by taking the storm off to our south.

The wind is still absolutely brutal here!

The 12z GFS still likes the period around the 23rd for a Winter storm chance for CTP. This run It has a storm that tracks a low from the south central states to WV and then secondaries near the DelMarVa.

Wearing shorts I assume….lol ?

Exactly, thank you! Also, to me the advertised pattern looks like it could produce storminess & just cold enough temps for us to score in CTP once we get to the last 10 days of the month. I have no interest in Arctic cold with the occasional snow shower. Give me a pattern with chances and hopefully we score on some opportunities.

Since @canderson is out of town this weekend, I will take the lead in the wind update department…. ”This wind is terrible….. I am worried about my siding and trash cans today!”

They.0z Canadian shows the potential for next Sunday with a storm tracking under us.

Yes, I have heard this folklore in the past and have seen it work out from time to time. Let’s see if it holds true at the end of next week.

Lol….it is January 13th !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

I got .35 today in Marysville.

I realize that your chart only includes Dec to Feb snow, but a few of those snow seasons at MDT were MUCH BETTER than what you implied above. March 2017 had a major coastal storm mid month that brought about 17 inches of snow. March of 2018 had at least 15 inches of snow in March/early April. Mid November of 2018 brought the 8 to 9 inch snow event. Early March of 2019 brought over 12 inches with a few snow Events during the first week of the month. This is just off of the top of my head, but the whole story needs told for these snow seasons overall. We have had several above average snow seasons at MDT over the last decade.

Good agreement today on the latest Operational model runs showing our potential next Winter storm chance on the 22/23. I would like to see the next frame or 2 of the 12z Euro. The 18z GFS is a nice hit for most of CTP. The Canadian also has a storm at day 10.

Same here with frost.