Blizzard of 93

I’m surprised that no one posted the 18z HRRR… Looks good for the Harrisburg area. Bullseye for @paweather

The 6z GFS is still full of chances even after the Monday event, so maybe one of these will get all of CTP a good snowstorm before we are done this month.

Let’s not get carried away, these events are not going to be total failures. The 6z GFS still looks good for an Advisory event on Sunday for most of us except for southern York & Lancaster this run.

Unfortunately, the models cut back some for the LSV for tomorrow. The timing & the bulk of the good precip swinging a bit to our north doesn’t help our snow amounts at this point.

The 0z FV3 is good for vast majority of the LSV & CTP

Yes, I just posted it…

The 3k NAM is much better for the LSV

Lol…They are waiting for the CRAS to get on board before they commit…

0z HRRR looks good at the end of its 48 hour run by Friday evening, with a little more to go after the run ends.

Here is a recap of the 12z snow maps from the 3 major globals for the combined totals for both events as of next Tuesday. This is by far the best consensus that we have seen this season at this range with 2 events on tap over the next 5 days.

I agree 100% with you! If we are initially cold enough for snow, I don’t believe that we change to rain with a slightly offshore low track that is intensifying as it tracks from NC to NJ. If anything, the precip shield should expand & the column should cool with that Euro look.

I really like the look of the 18z 3k NAM for all of CTP. The run ends at 60 hours Friday evening, so there would a more for the eastern part of the region to follow before it ends early Saturday.

Many of us will do well on Friday, but south of the turnpike could struggle.

Here is the combined total snow for both events on the 12z GFS & 12z Canadian by Tuesday am. Best short to medium term snow map combination of the season for Harrisburg on 2 models at this range.

It’s all about the rates.

The 12z Canadian looks great for Monday am. Snow map is just the Monday storm period. Warning snow again from Harrisburg to the west & north.

My lunch hour tour of weather models…. I will sign now for 12z GFS for Friday pm. Advisory snow for southern tier & Warning snow from Harrisburg on to the north.

6z Euro is on board for Friday pm snow. Hopefully today we continue to build a consensus.

My CTP zone has it mentioned. They will probably update today. They can’t ignore it any longer now that the GFS is on board. slight chance of snow before 10am, then a slight chance of rain and snow between 10am and 1pm, then rain likely after 1pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 40. East wind 5 to 9 mph becoming southeast in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 70%. Little or no snow accumulation expected. Friday Night Rain before 4am, then rain and snow likely. Low around 33. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible. Saturday Snow likely before 7am. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 42. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

6z GFS 2 event snow total.

6z GFS snow map just for Monday’s storm.

Best GFS run yet for the Monday storm. Good low track that produces another solid Advisory event this run with more upside potential thanks to the good track.

6z GFS looks good for Friday pm with an Advisory level event for the LSV with more snow to the north this run.

Good news on the 0z EPS for the Monday event. The mean low tracks well for us & the main cluster of individual ensemble members are to the east of the 0z Euro Op run that had the low track over Delaware.

Congrats on the 5 inches of snow near Williamsport yesterday! The LSV would have been thrilled to get even half of that yesterday instead of our shut out. These upcoming 2 events look to produce a good chance for all of us this coming week.