Blizzard of 93

The MJO now looks to go into phase 3 & then head back towards the Circle. Phase 3 centered on February is a cold pattern in the east. It looks like we might have a chance to avoid the dreaded 4,5 & 6 loop of torch. I think we will have chances, similar to this Wednesday.

Yes, and CTP is in the battle ground. Hopefully we get some more snow opportunities in the coming weeks.

Exciting week ahead with the win last night & tracking a couple of events on here.

Interesting model battle for today’s event. Some have almost nothing in the LSV, but others have a couple of inches by tomorrow am. The 6z Euro might be the middle ground solution now. The GFS brings most of its snow in the LSV on the back end tomorrow am.

I wish you & your family all of the best at this time. I hope that you are able to work everything out so your family can stay together. My only advice is to give it all time, and hopefully the best answers will develop.

Here is the combined GFS map through Thursday am

The 0z GFS also looks very for the Wednesday snow thumping

The 0z GFS looks good for a couple of inches tomorrow near Harrisburg.

18z Euro is coming back around for tomorrow for the Harrisburg area on to the north & west.

Here are the combined 2 event total by Thursday am.

Here is the Happy Hour GFS Wednesday snow thump snow

Happy hour GFS looks good for both events. Here is tomorrow into Monday

Great point about the Canadian High. Hopefully it keeps trending better.

I like tracking multiple events in the short to medium range… let’s go!

Yes, hopefully we get a decent little event tomorrow pm while tracking the Wednesday front ender!

The 18z NAMs both are bringing 1-2 inches back to the LSV. Maybe the start of the trend back to a respectable Advisory event for parts of the LSV?

I’d sign up for the this Ukie for Wednesday! Most models for tomorrow as of a couple of days ago had Advisory level 1-3 or 2-4 inch amounts, especially from Harrisburg north & west. The exceptions were that 1 epic Euro run & that Ukie run that you re-posted this morning. I still think there is time for the Tomorrow event to trend back to a 1-3 inch snow for the LSV like the HRRR just showed at 18z.

Here is the 18z HRRR snow map

The 18z HRRR looks interesting for the Tomorrow pm into Monday am event. It has the initial period of snow to mix & then it shows a secondary low development that brings a decent period of snow on the back end.

The 12z EPS & 12z Canadian ensembles still look good for the Wednesday snow thump.

ALEET…I mean… Advisory…for some southern PA counties as well…including mine! Winter Weather Advisory URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service State College PA 213 PM EST Sat Jan 21 2023 PAZ024>028-033>035-056-221000- /O.NEW.KCTP.WW.Y.0003.230122T1900Z-230123T0400Z/ Cambria-Blair-Huntingdon-Mifflin-Juniata-Somerset-Bedford-Fulton- Perry- Including the cities of Johnstown, Altoona, Huntingdon, Mount Union, Lewistown, Mifflintown, Somerset, Bedford, McConnellsburg, and Newport 213 PM EST Sat Jan 21 2023 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM TO 11 PM EST SUNDAY... * WHAT...Wet snow then mixed precipitation expected. Total snow accumulations of up to one inch and ice accumulations of up to one tenth of an inch. * WHERE...Portions of central Pennsylvania. * WHEN...From 2 PM to 11 PM EST Sunday. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...There`s a chance that the changeover to mixed precipitation or freezing rain could be delayed by up to a few hours late Sunday. This would add around another inch or so to the snowfall totals.

The 12z GFS has another Winter storm the last couple of days of January & looks juiced for early February with plenty of cold air around.

Widespread 3 to 5 inches of snow for all of CTP according to the 12z GFS.

The high in Quebec is in a good spot as the main slug of precip arrives.

The 12z GFS was Very good again for Wednesday for CTP…sorry I logged off for a bit… @Bubbler86 must be out to lunch today!