Blizzard of 93

@canderson lives on on top of a geothermal facility, so when it’s 29 in Enola, it’s 49 in downtown Harrisburg!

Light Freezing rain continues in Marysville. Current temp 31 Road outside my house now is very slick with a covering of ice despite the brining yesterday.

Precip should fill back in over the next hour or two as the band of precip moves east from western PA.

I woke up to the cars & grass covered in sleet with an icy crust from the Freezing rain. Current temp is 30

The 0z 3k NAM ramped up the freezing rain amounts again for the LSV 0z top vs. 18z bottom

With the precip set to arrive like a heavy wall, do you think this could help to cool the column a bit to provide more sleet for the first half of the storm?

Here are upper air & surface temps at the height of the storm at 2 am.

The 0z HRRR increased sleet & freezing rain amounts in the Harrisburg & Lancaster area.

Thanks for the detailed analysis!

I like seeing the heavy returns in the radar to our southwest. Hopefully we get a good dose of sleet before the freezing rain takes over.

2 hour delay here for the local school district.

I agree, they did a good job. I was just thinking that we track these events on here for over a week. By the time the storm gets to within a couple of days, it seems like it takes forever to get to game time. So many ups & downs and changes along the way. I am going to try to enjoy whatever wintry precip that I get tonight.

Plenty cold enough for Winter precip tonight!

32 temp 20 dew point Ice on the way Winter not done!

Lol…did I miss the event? Maybe we should let things play out tonight?

Here is CTP’s morning discussion. ”SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/... All eyes on this period. What is going to be a quick shot (generally 9-12 hrs most places) of precip will be significant in that we could have very disruptive amounts of all the different wintry p-types fall. It all boils down to how warm it gets aloft. The QPF is significant (0.50-1.00") for such a short time frame. The sfc low comes up the western side of the App Mtns tonight, crossing the NW part of the CWA, and then moving into central NY Friday morning. This track, and the good nose of warm air aloft which it helps to push northward thru the CWA, will force a transition from SN_>PL->FZRA. Some places may turn to rain before the precip tapers off Fri AM. Very high confidence in FZRA and 0.25+" ice accums over the Laurels. Very high confidence in sub-advy amounts of both ice and sleet/snowfall elsewhere. The sleet will probably be a significant portion of the precip over the central mtns. Extended the reach of the warning a tier of counties beyond/NE of the previous watch area. The elevations and high commercial/Interstate travel thru Blair and Clearfield counties played heavily in that decision. The potential for high wind gusts on Friday behind the sfc low/cold front makes worry for power outages even beyond the time it is precipitating. These places (along with the Laurels) are where the winds will be strongest. Bust potential lives in two main areas: First, the far northern tier could stay snow with 1+"/hr rates lasting even just 1-2hrs more could push them over 6" before a turnover to PL (but likely not FZRA). That might necessitate a warning for the snowfall there. The second area would be the central mtns and Susq Valley where more FZRA than sleet may occur, and perhaps warrant a warning there. There should be a fairly quick end to the precip Friday morning. But, we`ve kept the WWAs should hold quick improvement after a very messy morning. Sct SHSN will occur in the Laurels as the wind picks up and temps drop Fri. However, most of the area will dry up and the sun will poke thru over the SE half of the area for the aftn. Temps may rise just a little in the NW before falling in the aftn, and only modest (5-10F) rises from sunrise temps are expected elsewhere.”

This was posted elsewhere, but I know that CTP & @MAG5035 have referenced it in the past.

7 am in Marysville Temp 30 Dew point 18

Temps are now near freezing in the LSV. Just about all of PA has dew points ranging in the teens. Temps should drop further when precip arrives.

Here is DT’s first call.

Here are some of DT’s thoughts: ”The WORST of the Freezing rain and Sleet impacts will hit the northern half of the Shenandoah Valley — north of Interstate 64, the Eastern panhandle of West Virginia, all of western and central Maryland, and the southern half of Pennsylvania including all of Metro Philadelphia, the Lehigh Valley, and central interior Pennsylvania”

Winter Weather Advisory URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service State College PA 411 AM EST Thu Feb 24 2022 PAZ046-049>053-057>059-066-242115- /O.NEW.KCTP.WW.Y.0014.220225T0000Z-220225T1500Z/ Southern Lycoming-Union-Snyder-Montour-Northumberland-Columbia- Dauphin-Schuylkill-Lebanon-Lancaster- Including the cities of Williamsport, Lewisburg, Selinsgrove, Danville, Sunbury, Shamokin, Bloomsburg, Berwick, Harrisburg, Hershey, Pottsville, Lebanon, and Lancaster 411 AM EST Thu Feb 24 2022 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST FRIDAY... * WHAT...Mixed precipitation expected. Total sleet and snow accumulations of 1 to 3 inches and ice accumulations of one tenth to one quarter of an inch. The most snow will be closer to Interstate 80, while the lowest sleet and snow amounts are expected along and south of the PA Turnpike. * WHERE...Portions of central Pennsylvania. * WHEN...From 7 PM this evening to 10 AM EST Friday. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions will impact the Friday morning commute. Travel disruptions are expected to be significant overnight, and into mid-morning Friday north of Interstate 81. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...An initial burst of snow will turn to mainly sleet. Several hours of sleet will be followed by several hours of freezing rain. This combination will create a thick layer of ice. Temperatures will gradually warm to just above freezing in most places before sunrise south of Interstate 81 and later Friday morning north of Interstate 81. Gusty winds on Friday, mainly after the precipitation ends, could lead to power outages.

Winter Weather Advisory URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service State College PA 411 AM EST Thu Feb 24 2022 PAZ010>012-018-019-026>028-035-036-045-056-063>065-242115- /O.NEW.KCTP.WW.Y.0014.220225T0000Z-220225T1500Z/ Elk-Cameron-Northern Clinton-Northern Centre-Southern Centre- Huntingdon-Mifflin-Juniata-Fulton-Franklin-Southern Clinton-Perry- Cumberland-Adams-York- Including the cities of St. Marys, Ridgway, Emporium, Renovo, Philipsburg, State College, Huntingdon, Mount Union, Lewistown, Mifflintown, McConnellsburg, Chambersburg, Lock Haven, Newport, Carlisle, Gettysburg, and York 411 AM EST Thu Feb 24 2022 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST FRIDAY... * WHAT...Mixed precipitation expected. Total sleet and snow accumulations of up to 3 inches and ice accumulations between one tenth and one quarter of an inch. * WHERE...Portions of central Pennsylvania. * WHEN...From 7 PM this evening to 10 AM EST Friday. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions will impact the morning commute. Travel disruptions are expected to be significant overnight for all of the area, and into mid-morning Friday north of Route 22. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Any snow at the beginning of the precipitation this evening will quickly turn to sleet. Several hours of sleet will be followed by several hours of freezing rain. This combination will create a thick layer of ice. Temperatures will gradually warm to just above freezing in most places late tonight or on Friday morning. Gusty west winds on Friday may lead to power outages as the icy trees could fall onto power lines. The heavier than normal power lines themselves will also be subjected to increased stress from the wind.

The 0z 3k NAM ramped up sleet amounts for the LSV, along with the rest of CTP. 0z top vs 18z bottom

Selinsgrove went from 1.7 to 4.0 Reading went from .6 to 2.2 Still some time left for another tick or 2 south.