Blizzard of 93

There are more chances later in the GFS runs as well.

The 0z & 6z GFS said that we will be busy tracking Winter storm opportunities next week. The first chance is the middle of next week.

The 18z GFS cheered me up a bit by showing a couple of Winter storm opportunities during the next 2 weeks. We are beyond overdue, but there is still some time to score.

I am slowly recovering from the Eagles debacle yesterday. Their defense & punt coverage units let them down in the second half. Hurts played a great game, but the first half fumble ended up being very costly. Their D line did not have any impact. The terrible call at the end of the game should never happen with 2 minutes to go. It’s unbelievable that the refs didn’t let the game be decided on the field. This game will take awhile to get over…

Today is a great day of hope for many Eagles fans! The 12z GFS also gives hope for Winter storm fans…only 10 days away..!

Great post! It’s good to see the MJO speeding towards phase 8. Hopefully we have a March like 2018, but I wouldn’t mind getting things going in late February.

Low of 33 in Marysville.

The 6z GFS is still close enough to keep an eye on for this weekend. This run gets precip to the southern tier of PA and a dusting of snow to the LSV. The good snow is not too far away in the WV panhandle this run.

The 0z RGEM brings a good amount of precip to the LSV on Sunday pm into early Monday. Currently it is showing as rain, but surface & 850 temperatures are close. It is close enough to keep an eye on the trends the next couple of days if this type of precip shield develops.

I still haven’t fully thrown in the towel for the weekend event in the LSV. Maybe there will be a little trend back north with 3 days still to go. The pattern could improve later this month as the MJO is forecast to go into phase 8.

Lol, you can read this a few ways…

It was a great sunset.

I love the reverse psychology…. Lol, See you at 0z !

The 18z EPS control run also gets it done.

Here is the 18z EPS snow map. The best snow this run is in south central CTP, but it involves all of the LSV.

Here is the 18z EPS mean low position at the height of the storm for us.

Apologies for interrupting the “bugs” & “winter’s over forever” posts…. The 18z EPS says CTP & the LSV are very much in the game for the Sunday storm.

Why, it’s Wednesday & the storm isn’t getting to our region until Sunday. We have seen this scenario countless times over the years. The Euro ensemble at 6z today had 2-4 inches of snow across most of CTP. I will “stop” when it is crystal clear it’s not happening.

@MAG5035 Any current thoughts on the weekend storm potential?

Great post from pro Met. @wdrag in the NYC forum that I think could apply to us in Central PA. “fwiw... if the ULL tracks east, probably no go for us n of I80 but if the ULL tracks 1 or 2 degs further N, then I think the I84 corridor has a good chance of deformation zone snow (4") in n-nw edge of 7H LOW where FGEN-convergence occurs. I'll be watching trends in the modeled 7H-5H lows the next several days. In the meantime, 12z op model heights at 500MB are generally 30-60M higher than the 12z EC op. That makes a significant difference in ptype nw edge. Thermal profile are marginal but I'm pretty sure if models reverse the se trend in today's models, that we'll see a pretty decent amount of snow in the Pocs-I84 corridor. This still has a chance to edge a little further north than recently modeled. It's not an overwhelming amount of cooling in the column that is needed, in my opinion. It's latitude of the 7H-5H low that I think is important fgen significant snow N of I80.”

There certainly isn’t a cold front or a pressing High to push it to the south either. The better solutions that showed more snow in CTP on & off the last few days have featured a little more of a progressive system with a good upper low track under us.

I wouldn’t be surprised to see this weekend storm trend a little further north over the next few days to get at least the LSV involved in some Winter weather.

The 6z GFS was close for the LSV this weekend. I think a low taking this track from NC to the DelMarVa would have more precip in general on the northwest side.

Yes & the 0z EPS mean snow map bumped up again as well for this weekend.

Yes, the 0z EPS has a good mean track and multiple low tracks on the individual ensemble members that will work for us.