Blizzard of 93

The 12z GFS has the Wednesday night or Thursday am Clipper chance.

Great first win with Harden last night. Harden, Maxey & Embiid were a lot of fun to watch.

12z GFS said more chances with March Winter storm opportunities.

Freezing rain has picked back up in intensity here in Marysville. Current temp is 31

I know what you mean. This Winter at least has had several events to track that have unfortunately bullseyed areas in all directions about 100 to 150 miles away. We have been in the game in the Susquehanna Valley, but have not yet cashed in. I don’t think that we are done yet. The EPO & WPO are heading negative again next week. The AO & NAO will be going at least toward neutral during this time. I think that we will have more tracking ahead of us in March and hopefully it will be our turn to score snow.

@canderson lives on on top of a geothermal facility, so when it’s 29 in Enola, it’s 49 in downtown Harrisburg!

Light Freezing rain continues in Marysville. Current temp 31 Road outside my house now is very slick with a covering of ice despite the brining yesterday.

Precip should fill back in over the next hour or two as the band of precip moves east from western PA.

I woke up to the cars & grass covered in sleet with an icy crust from the Freezing rain. Current temp is 30

The 0z 3k NAM ramped up the freezing rain amounts again for the LSV 0z top vs. 18z bottom

With the precip set to arrive like a heavy wall, do you think this could help to cool the column a bit to provide more sleet for the first half of the storm?

Here are upper air & surface temps at the height of the storm at 2 am.

The 0z HRRR increased sleet & freezing rain amounts in the Harrisburg & Lancaster area.

Thanks for the detailed analysis!

I like seeing the heavy returns in the radar to our southwest. Hopefully we get a good dose of sleet before the freezing rain takes over.

2 hour delay here for the local school district.

I agree, they did a good job. I was just thinking that we track these events on here for over a week. By the time the storm gets to within a couple of days, it seems like it takes forever to get to game time. So many ups & downs and changes along the way. I am going to try to enjoy whatever wintry precip that I get tonight.

Plenty cold enough for Winter precip tonight!

32 temp 20 dew point Ice on the way Winter not done!

Lol…did I miss the event? Maybe we should let things play out tonight?

Here is CTP’s morning discussion. ”SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/... All eyes on this period. What is going to be a quick shot (generally 9-12 hrs most places) of precip will be significant in that we could have very disruptive amounts of all the different wintry p-types fall. It all boils down to how warm it gets aloft. The QPF is significant (0.50-1.00") for such a short time frame. The sfc low comes up the western side of the App Mtns tonight, crossing the NW part of the CWA, and then moving into central NY Friday morning. This track, and the good nose of warm air aloft which it helps to push northward thru the CWA, will force a transition from SN_>PL->FZRA. Some places may turn to rain before the precip tapers off Fri AM. Very high confidence in FZRA and 0.25+" ice accums over the Laurels. Very high confidence in sub-advy amounts of both ice and sleet/snowfall elsewhere. The sleet will probably be a significant portion of the precip over the central mtns. Extended the reach of the warning a tier of counties beyond/NE of the previous watch area. The elevations and high commercial/Interstate travel thru Blair and Clearfield counties played heavily in that decision. The potential for high wind gusts on Friday behind the sfc low/cold front makes worry for power outages even beyond the time it is precipitating. These places (along with the Laurels) are where the winds will be strongest. Bust potential lives in two main areas: First, the far northern tier could stay snow with 1+"/hr rates lasting even just 1-2hrs more could push them over 6" before a turnover to PL (but likely not FZRA). That might necessitate a warning for the snowfall there. The second area would be the central mtns and Susq Valley where more FZRA than sleet may occur, and perhaps warrant a warning there. There should be a fairly quick end to the precip Friday morning. But, we`ve kept the WWAs should hold quick improvement after a very messy morning. Sct SHSN will occur in the Laurels as the wind picks up and temps drop Fri. However, most of the area will dry up and the sun will poke thru over the SE half of the area for the aftn. Temps may rise just a little in the NW before falling in the aftn, and only modest (5-10F) rises from sunrise temps are expected elsewhere.”

This was posted elsewhere, but I know that CTP & @MAG5035 have referenced it in the past.

7 am in Marysville Temp 30 Dew point 18

Temps are now near freezing in the LSV. Just about all of PA has dew points ranging in the teens. Temps should drop further when precip arrives.

Here is DT’s first call.