Blizzard of 93

CTP is ramping up their discussion today&& “LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... An impactful winter storm is on tap for the beginning half of the weekend. Precipitation enters the region from the northwest as rain and quickly overspreads PA beginning Friday night. The transition to snow in the northwest will be rather swift given the influx of frigid air. The tight temperature gradient associated with this system will lead to a mainly rain event in the southeast and an impactful winter event for the north, west, and central PA. The rain/snow transition zone will be located near and along the I-80/I-99 corridor with rain in the southeast and snow in the northwest. Given the vast amount of cold air that will plunge into the region swiftly, there is little likelihood that there will be any wintry mix or ice out of this system. The dominant precipitation types will be rain and snow. By Saturday afternoon, all of the Commonwealth transitions over to snow before tapering off by late Saturday night into Sunday morning. Snow rates and SLRs are expected to be high, but the exact location of the heaviest banding of snow is still uncertain. Currently, the forecast has 6 to 8" in the northeast and 4 to 6" for much of the rest of the Commonwealth aside from the southeast, which will likely only see about an inch or two of snow. As snow starts to taper off on Saturday the wind is going to pick up and temperatures will tank. Gusts of 30+ mph combined with fresh dry snow will likely lead to drifting snow.”

Good to see these 2 that you posted agree. The Canadian is also onboard now, but the GFS needs some work.

Here are CTP’s thoughts on the weekend. LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... 2 pm update... The highlight of this period will be the expected winter storm Friday night and Saturday. Still the customary model uncertainty with just how quickly colder air pours into the region late Friday night and Saturday morning, and how that timing meshes with the best forcing/heaviest precipitation. The latest model consensus has the highest chance for accumulating snow and perhaps locally heavy (4-6"+) amounts north of I-80 and west of I-99. A tight gradient in snowfall is likely south and east of these regions. One factor that was noted in model guidance this far out, unlike some other systems we`ve had this winter, is a very sharp rain to snow transition and little in the way of either sleet or freezing rain.

Here is the 18z EPS & Control snow maps for Saturday. Slight uptick in amounts over the last few runs on the EPS.

@MAG5035 What was your final snow amount today?

So are these….for what they are worth after today’s let down… 10-1 & Kuchera

Great call for today by CTP, MU and @canderson !

I agree, a few degrees colder would have helped, but if we had heavier precip at the onset like places to our south, west & east had earlier near daybreak, I think this could have turned out a little bit better. Oh well, onto Saturday!

I agree, it was nice to see snow falling for most of the day, even though it didn’t add up to much in the LSV. The grass & mulch & car tops were covered in northern Harrisburg and Marysville today. Mrs. Blizz and the Blizz kids reported around 2 inches of snow on the grass and car tops at work & school near Duncannon today. This could have easily been an Advisory event for most of the LSV if the radar would have cooperated early this am. Oh well…on to Saturday!

Congrats on the snow today to you and the I-99, 322 & I-80 crew! I agree 100% with you that today the temps were not the issue in the Sus Valley. The main issue was the heavy am precip shield targeted the western half of PA. The other heavy am band split off to the south & east. The Sus Valley was left with light precip until later in the morning, but it was never a sustained heavier band here. Anytime today that the precip rates picked up, it snowed at a good rate with temps near 33 to 34 in northern Harrisburg. Congrats again, but I wish that all of us could have cashed in today.

Same here at this time. The radar was disorganized earlier this morning and the heavy precip was initially pushed off to the southeast of the MD line. Unfortunately that is not what we needed to get a decent snow event going. We needed it to come in like a wall. Hopefully we get a few hours of wet snow this morning and get a couple of inches on the grass.

The Saturday storm looks interesting. This could end up being our best snow week of the season if all goes well tomorrow & Saturday.

The 3k NAM also looks good at 10-1 & Kuchera.

Indeed, here is the 12k NAM at 0z LSV jackpot!

The 18z EPS & 18z Euro Control crush the LSV tomorrow.

My current temp in Marysville is 37 with dew point of 25. I don’t expect temp issues here tomorrow is rates are half decent.

Here is the 18z 10-1 & Kuchera Boom!

The 18z Euro says game on for everyone tomorrow morning!

Elevation will help, but I still think heat islands in the neighborhood of @canderson & MU can do ok tomorrow.

The 18z GFS looks good at 10-1 & Kuchera.

There is a consensus on all models for the LSV to get 2 to 4 inches of snow tomorrow. Both NAMs looked good for most of us at 10-1 & Kuchera.

I think many people in general will be surprised by this storm. If the rates are there, the snow will stick on most surfaces until at least the late am.

I think that there will be more Advisories added later for all except maybe the far southern tier. They might wait until game time.

Here are CTP’s morning discussion thoughts. Model convergence supports high POPs for a period of wet snow over much of the forecast area between dawn Wednesday into early afternoon, as southern stream shortwave lifts through. The weak surface low is progged to track well south of the area, keeping Pa in the cold air. However, marginal surface temps are likely to result in elevation-dependent accumulations, with ptype changing to light rain in the valleys toward midday. Nearly all locations appear likely to see a small accumulation, but confidence in county-wide advisory totals remains low, so will hold off on headlines for now. Best guess of accumulations based on ensemble mean qpf and thermal profiles ranges from 2-3 inches on the ridgetops to less than an inch in the lower elevations of the Lower Susq Valley. Any slushy road surfaces Wed morning should give way to wet roads by afternoon, due to rising temps and increasing March sun angle.