Blizzard of 93

Let’s see what 18z says… We need to get the first event potential to hold within 5 days this time.

That’s why I said if we got 15-20 by early April that it would make the Winter become slightly respectable to me when all is said & done. That would mean that MDT would have a 20 plus inch snow Winter, which would still be below average, but it would be a more respectable snow total when compared with other poor snow years over the decades.

According to this, if we extrapolate his ideas & factor in our CTP interior location that can help us, we should get 15-20 more inches of snow by early April. That would turn a disaster Winter into slightly respectable season if we ended that strong.

The beginning of this quote is JB discussing the fast movement of the MJO.

For the record, Joe Bastardi had not thrown in the towel. Here is part of his post from earlier this week. He is all in on a strong finish to this Winter! “Well something is different. Its not spending 15-20 days in warmer phases It moves through twice as fast as average this time, instead of half as fast as average. 2) The seasons are changing with the seasonal change. 3) The La Nina is fading. 4 There is a stratwarm. So it looks like there are differences. So to be clear. Since the I-95 corridor has been snowless and this may be the warmest winter on record in some of these places, I am going to put numbers down for a test case Since everything is done over/under, here are mine Average temps of IAD, DCA, BWI PHL EWR LGA, the park, JFK. ISP PVD and Boston March 1-April 15. -5 Snow Iad/DCA 12. BWI 14. PHL 15. New york blend 18. PVD/Bos blend. 20 So April 16 will score it up”

The 18z GFS total snow map would make @paweather pass out!

Many models & ensembles have liked this period on & off the last few days.

Only 1 week away.

Bring it !!!

The latest Euro weeklies & extended GEFS are very snowy for CTP & the whole Northeast. Time will tell if we can salvage a strong 4th quarter Winter ending.

The Happy hour GFS was Really happy. It has another snowstorm to end the run.

I absolutely loved every second of this storm. It was a very long duration. The forecasts a couple of days before had the heaviest snow towards the MD line, but as the storm approached the day before, forecasts began to advertise 1 foot likely with more possible. Then as the storm got underway, my favorite forecast of “Winter Storm Warning for 1 to 2 feet of snow” was issued. The temperatures were in the single digits as the storm got underway Sunday am as strong High pressed down from Quebec. I remember the long “arm” of the precip on the radar stretching from the MD line well back into the Central states. The precip slowly inched north through CTP & the rates picked as low crawled eastward. By Sunday night, there was about 10 inches of snow on the ground. The storm reached the Mid Atlantic coast & intensified as it moved north. The snow intensity & flake size increased. By Monday morning it was still snowing moderately to heavy. It finally wrapped around Harrisburg by early afternoon with around 2 feet on snow on the ground. Then on Tuesday, the upper low swung through & delivered light snow bringing another 1 or 2 inches of snow. Epic storm!

Let’s start a collection for this Happy hour storm to happen…we need this, lol!

Lol, Happy hour GFS saves us with a historic storm to end the month & bring in March like a Lion!

Atlantic City?

It can torch today, but I’m keeping my shovel & ice melt close by for next week.

The overnight models continue to offer chances for Winter weather beginning the middle of next week and onward.

The pattern should hopefully continue to improve in late February into March as the blocking gets established.

This is now 5 GFS runs in a row that have showed Winter storm chances for next week. As mentioned earlier on here, the 12z Canadian & Euro also show this potential as well.

The 18z GFS has a mixed Winter storm chance next Thursday.

Multiple opportunities again for Winter weather on the 18z GFS. It has a snow chance for us next Wednesday.

I’m just happy to have another period of Winter weather tracking next week. One of these times, it will work out for us!

The Canadian has a similar idea as the GFS, while the Euro still needs a little work.