Blizzard of 93

Here are CTP’s thoughts this morning. The main focus for late week remains on a much more significant area of low pressure lifting north from the Gulf Coast. The bulk of latest guidance tracks the primary low into western Pa with secondary coastal development and a blocking high over northern New England. This scenario favors a wintry mix for much of central Pa late Thursday into early Friday. Plenty of GOMEX moisture accompanying this system should result in a fairly significant precipitation event, with latest ensemble plumes indicating 0.5 to 1 inch of precip most likely. Latest model thermal profiles currently support snow to mixed precip over the north and mixed precip to rain in the south.

But many were saying that the GFS was the new king…

Every model disagrees with this…

@MAG5035 What are your current thoughts for the Thursday/Friday event in CTP?

The 18z GFS has mostly sleet & freezing rain for the southern half of PA. This would be ugly if this played out.

This is a different situation than the last event. We have cold air in place as the precip arrives this time. Also, we are 4 days out, lots of times to see how this plays out.

The snow map is only for the next Sunday snow chance on the 12z Euro.

Here are some more photos of the 12z Euro for the next Sunday snow chance.

I won’t mind Friday if it ends up as a mostly icy mix as long as we are tracking a Moderate snowstorm for next Sunday as the 12z Euro shows for us.

Here is the 12z Euro freezing rain for Friday.

The 12z Euro has a significant ice event for most of us from around the PA turnpike on north.

We had a Warning event in early January when MDT got over 5 inches of snow. CTP upgraded us to a Warning in the middle of the event.

Here are CTP’s thoughts this morning for the late week Winter storm. LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... A brief period of fair and cooler conditions appears likely Wednesday PM through much of Thursday, as high pressure noses southward from the Grt Lks, returning temps close to average for late February. All guidance tracks another area of low pressure north from the Gulf Coast late next week. There is significant spread in the forecast track of this system, but the bulk of current guidance tracks a primary low west of Pa with secondary coastal development and a blocking high over New England. This scenario favors a wintry mix for much of central Pa late Thursday into early Friday.

Here is the 12z GFS for Thursday night through Friday snow, sleet & freezing rain.

My overnight low in Marysville was 14

Here is the 6z GFS snow, sleet & freezing rain.

I agree that the High strength & placement looks very good with this Thursday night & Friday event. The model runs that have brought the good snow further south in PA show a weaker & further south 1st wave earlier on Thursday. This allows the Cold fresh High to entrench further south and keeps the boundary closer to the MD line. This then produces for southern PA more snow & sleet vs. freezing rain with the main second wave overnight Thursday through Friday.

Here is another view of the 18z GFS snow, sleet & freezing rain.

GFS is not wavering!

Here is 1 more Euro comparison. The 12z -top- has a weaker low that is not even worthy of an “L” on the map in western PA with more freezing rain further to the south than the 0z -bottom- which has a stronger low near Buffalo, NY at the same time stamp. Hopefully this is the beginning of its trend towards the GFS.

Here are some comparisons of the 12z Euro vs. the 0z Euro. The 12z Euro has the first wave weaker and further south than the 0z Euro. This allows time for colder air to build south, more similar to the GFS solution. 12z Euro top, 0z Euro middle, 12z GFS bottom.

Just where we want it at this range…hopefully….maybe? Imagine if the GFS is right for Friday and then the day 10 storm trends a little north? We could get caught up & then some in the snow department this season. At least we are back in the game!

The Euro made a move towards the GFS. @MJO812 I saw your post in here NYC thread and I agree that the Euro took a step towards the GFS (I didn’t want to get involved in the shenanigans on there…). I’ll try to post some maps soon to compare. Long way to go…

It was a great GFS run for snow for the turnpike area on north. The 12z Canadian was mostly ice for CTP. Lets see if the Euro makes a move soon?

Same here, much lighter snow now. I picked up a quick few tenths of an inch of snow mostly on the grass. Car tops & roads quickly melted as the rates dropped off.