Blizzard of 93
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Everything posted by Blizzard of 93
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Yes, it shows how the LSV can win. Initial low transfers when it hits central WV & then secondaries off of the DelMarVa & then deepens northeast.
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Wow, I was not expecting this at this range….especially with the model variance at 12z
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12z EPS for early week trended north this run after a few good runs in a row. Still lots of workable low tracks on the ensemble members. It still has Advisory level snow for the LSV this run.
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Here are the 12z GFS, Canadian & NAM as of 12z Tuesday at the same time stamp. The location & strength of that coastal low will determine southern PA’s fate. Still lots of variance with 3 days to go.
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Small differences the the LSV couldn’t afford this run took away much of our snow. The initial low almost gets to the PA border this run & then the coastal hugs the coast near Atlantic City, NJ this run instead off developing off of OCMD last run.
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It’s not over yet just because of 1 Euro Op run…. If this look holds until 12z Monday, then it’s over.
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Unfortunately no, WB just has very limited Ukie maps-no snow maps. I rely on others for the Ukie.
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12z GEFS gets Warning snow to most of CTP including 7 to Harrisburg this run.
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Canadian also has PD weekend coastal storm chance just further south & weaker at this range.
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Op run snow alert on the GFS for the PD weekend & just beyond. Lots of tracking in our future…
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Agreed, we need something more like the GFS to bring the rates once we flip to have the chance of accumulation.
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Exactly…Warning snow from Harrisburg on to the north.
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Here is the 12z NAM precipitation. It cut back for the LSV on to the east & north. 6z top 12z bottom
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12z NAM makes this event mostly all snow for just about everyone north of the MD line. It cut back on precipitation this run as the low exits more east than northeast this run. This track would work especially if it juices back up in future runs.
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We just need to sit back & watch the individual storm threats emerge. Last week, some were skeptical that the pattern would change & there would be no chance early next week, yet here we are…. The players are just entering the field- right on time- now we need to see how the game unfolds….
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6z GEFS & 6z EPS Both continue to march the “purple” further south. Harrisburg & York both get Warning level snow over 5 inches on both ensembles. Heck, the purple even reached MDT on the GEFS.
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@CAPE is saving me a lot of time this morning…
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Ensembles, extended products & pro forecasters absolutely nailed the pattern change between the 10th & 15th from forecasts several weeks ago…. We are actively already tracking a Winter storm threat in that window.
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I agree with this 100000000000%
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0z EPS & GEFS look very similar. The EPS is ramping up snow amounts & now gets the 5 inch line to Harrisburg & to the north.
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6z NAM is best case scenario run for southern PA & northern MD. The Low tracks further southeast off of coast this run, but it still gets heavier rates to southern PA.
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0z Euro looks good especially for the PA turnpike on to the north.
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Indeed…. I would pay a few bucks to see 1 more panel if it existed!
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I’ll take it… @MAG5035 handled the details quite well. 18z EPS should be interesting a little later.
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The 18z GEFS & 12z EPS are similar with amounts in the LSV. GEFS gets 5 inches to Harrisburg & York while the EPS gets 4 to these locations. The GEFS gets the overall snow line about 50 miles further south than the EPS.
