In my observations, we typically only ever see those types of ensemble totals when there is a moderate event or two in the short term.
This is a major signal.
The signal is getting louder on the 0z ensembles for snow chances in the upcoming 2 weeks.
Most of this snow falls in week 2, but seeing ensembles showing 8 and 10 inches at this range is VERY RARE.
@mitchnick have you EVER seen the EPS show a 8 to 10 inch mean for the LSV on the 15 day map unless we were staring down a major event in the short term?
Me personally, I’ve never seen the EPS show 10 inches for MDT at this range for the 15 day period.
No guarantees & we can’t shovel potential…. but my goodness this has the chance to be a memorable upcoming period.
I like seeing the signal for snow over the next 2 weeks on the GEFS & EPS.
From my observations over the years, it’s usually a good indicator for snow potential when the 6 inch snow line reaches at least part of the LSV for the 15 or 16 day ensemble period.
The vast majority of the snow is in week 2 on both ensembles.
12z GFS & Canadian continue the theme of multiple chances along the boundary over the next 2 weeks.
Hopefully we are on the Wintry side for a few of them.
The 6z GFS has 5 different Winter Storm chances over the next 16 days.
Most are snow to mix scenarios, but we would build a little glacier if this run were to verify.
Too many maps (lol, yes I said it) to post each individual threat.
Here is the 16 day snow map just to give a general idea of the potential this run.
@mitchnick and others that love snow chances…
The 0z EPS snow map might have had the best run of the season without a specific threat on our doorstep.
Talk about potential…this is the 10 day EPS snow map from the 5th through the 15th.
The 0z GFS & Euro both have several Winter weather opportunities as we ride the boundary during the next 2 weeks.
Some snow, some mix, some rain, it should be an interesting period upcoming to say the least.
Here is the 0z EPS look for week 2. Temps are near to slightly below normal during this time.
The EPS snow map for just week 2 is ramping up amounts for this period.
Here is the 0z EPS look for week 2. Temps are near to slightly below normal during this time.
The EPS snow map for just week 2 is ramping up amounts for this period.