Blizzard of 93

I’ve been happy with MDT’s measurements this season so far, but I’m a bit puzzled by their measurement yesterday. They recorded .02 of precip but only recorded .1 of snow, despite temperatures well below freezing. It doesn’t matter much in the grand scheme of things, but, for example if we end up sitting at 29.9 of snow for the season, that could have been the tenth of snow to push us to the 30 mark. These little events all add up & details matter…

Sorry, I need coffee! I thought you were referring to the snow maps.

You need to show a few day window for timing differences at this range…

Light snow actively was falling the entire way between Marysville & Palmyra. Light snow & 23 currently in Palmyra.

I just got to Palmyra for my daughter’s indoor softball league game & the main roads appeared to be fine, however, there was a major accident on the west bound side of 322 outside of Harrisburg towards Hummelstown. There was a tractor trailer on its side. There were police & fire trucks on the scene & responding. I will likely be taking a different route home, because I imagine it will take awhile to clear that area. if you are venturing out, please be careful. Roads are getting slick!

Here is the AI EPS 72 hour snow from 2/13 am to 2/16 am. Here is also the 50th percentile map through 2/13 am & through 2/16 am. Very little snow falls before 2/13, so the window for next weekend is evident at least in terms of snow maps.

Here is the AI EPS 72 hour snow from 2/13 am to 2/16 am. Here is also the 50th percentile map through 2/13 am & through 2/16 am. Very little snow falls before 2/13, so the window for next weekend is evident at least in terms of snow maps.

Hang in there man, Only a month or so to go until Spring. CTP had this today in their discussion about a little relief next week… KEY MESSAGE 3: Moderating temperatures during the second week of February For those looking for a break in the cold pattern, here you go. Confidence continues to increase that temperatures will moderate during the second week of February and climb back to seasonal levels or near the historical average for early to mid February. This "warmup" puts mixed precipitation on the table with the next weather system that could arrive Wed/Thu next week. The guidance has come into better agreement concerning the precip pattern evolution with best odds around the middle of next week.

I just noticed that MDT got down to 2 degrees this morning.

Both the 18z AI Euro & AI GFS have a potential Winter storm chance near President’s Day this run.

6z GFS for next weekend has a snow to mix/rain back to snow long duration scenario for CTP. Long way to go & many developments still to come in the upcoming days as we continue to track the potential.

Low of 7 in Marysville.

Lots of shovel & temperature talk today… But no one bothered to post the 12z Euro for next weekend’s chance…Lol! This run shows heavy snow to mix for most of us before a change back to snow. The low took a somewhat inland track, which brought on the mixing this run. Long way to go…

Bottom line is that Next weekend is still a period of interest that needs monitored for a possible Winter storm chance.

The 6z AI GFS actually keeps the low mostly to our south this run in response to the blocking.

Likely way overdone to say the least this run, but the 6z GFS had the general idea of a low tracking towards Ohio & then forming a secondary in response to the blocking in the Northeast. The good recent off & on runs the last few days of the Euro & the AI models had this same general idea. The 6z GFS just gets the coastal going a little earlier & then rapidly strengthens it, producing a historic result, that is of course unlikely.

12z EPS & AI EPS also have the Winter storm signal for Valentine’s weekend.

18z GFS had an interesting solution for a Valentine’s weekend Winter storm chance.

Long range GFS & Euro Op runs are starting to entertain the idea of a Valentine/PD weekend Winter storm chance, just like their AI versions have shown over the last couple of days at times.

Same in Marysville

The 18z AI EPS has a good looking signal for Valentine’s/PD weekend.

The 18z AI EPS has a good looking signal for Valentine’s/PD weekend.

People were so busy punting & canceling that they missed PD3 on the 18z AIGFS… Lol!

The Euro continued to be enthused about the Friday Clipper chance, bringing 1 to 2 inches of snow to most of CTP again this run.

Most models now keep most of the light snow chance tomorrow night just to our south, but a dusting to coating from the turnpike south is still on the table for now.