Lol, I just said that I am exhausted from relentlessly tracking this storm for days, I am not giving up, but just acknowledging that I’m tired and need to rest up for the upcoming show.
I’m already getting exhausted tracking this beast & we are just entering NAM range now. I’ve been hunting this chance for almost a week.
This could be a memorable high ranking storm for southern PA if all tracks properly.
18z EPS gives us lots of wiggle room in southern PA for slight adjustments in just about every direction.
Ensemble maps are only available in the 10-1 ratios.
Great to see the good trends for us continue through 6z. Hopefully the amped up trend stops & stabilizes today.
I think most of CTP is in a great spot for the best storm at least since Feb 1st in 2021 when MDT got near one foot.
Let’s watch the trends & see what the NAM & other short range models start spitting out on the next couple of days.
He is just picking analogs of the top 3 historical storms that look like this current storm’s potential. When you blend those 3 analog storm totals, you get 10 to 15 at Harrisburg per his post this evening. One of his 3 analogs was PD2 back in February 2003. This storm as I mentioned a couple of days ago also reminds me a lot of that storm with the Arctic press meeting up with a strong moisture plume halfway across the country that delivered 20 inches to Harrisburg.