Lol, my apologies to Lancaster!
Every other county In CTP got crushed this run & Lancaster airport got 10 inches on the 18z GFS.
Lol, Don’t worry, only about 36 more runs to go until game time… plenty of time for changes.
Lol, if this would somehow verify, I think most of us would happily settle for 8 to 19 inches of snow in CTP!
I am good with the 17 inches at MDT! That would probably make their top 20 all time snow storm list.
Hopefully this is the one that finally gets it done!
The blocking is in place by this point.
What a long duration Winter storm. Verbatim this run for southern PA is snow to mix back to heavy snow. It starts next Friday am & does not end until eating afternoon next Saturday.
This CTP chart for Harrisburg seasonal snow totals since 1980 shows that we have had years in each decade that struggle with poor snow amounts.
We just had an above normal Snow season in 20-21 in a Winter that featured 2 storms that brought nearly 1 foot each to Harrisburg. We also had a few of the 2-4 type events that year as well.
This chart also shows a few examples that a bad snow year this year does not mean that next year cannot be a great snow Winter.
The early next week system is far from being written in stone.
The blocking will be in its beginning stages.
The 18z GFS has the look that the good Euro & GFS runs from a couple of days showed. It has the low tracking to Ohio but then the secondary coastal low takes over far enough to the south to change us from a mix over to snow. The storm then exits to the east off of the coast of NJ.
Still 1 week to go…
The EPS still shows the end of the month potential with the initial low tracking to our west but then redeveloping on the Mid Atlantic coast.
We need this to happen a little further south to deliver snow potential to CTP. This would be at the beginning stages of the blocking, so time will tell the impacts that it will have on this system.
The overnight models also still give us a chance at light snow at some point on Saturday. The GFS has it slightly to our south at this time, the Canadian & Euro have CTP in the light precip potential.