Blizzard of 93

Meanwhile, sorry to interrupt the mosquito discussion…Lol ! Winter Weather Advisory URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service State College PA 345 PM EST Sun Feb 26 2023 PAZ006-012-045-049>052-058-271500- /O.NEW.KCTP.WW.Y.0009.230227T2100Z-230228T1400Z/ Potter-Northern Clinton-Southern Clinton-Union-Snyder-Montour- Northumberland-Schuylkill- Including the cities of Coudersport, Renovo, Lock Haven, Lewisburg, Selinsgrove, Danville, Sunbury, Shamokin, and Pottsville 345 PM EST Sun Feb 26 2023 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM MONDAY TO 9 AM EST TUESDAY... * WHAT...Mixed precipitation expected. Total snow accumulations of up to two inches and ice accumulations of around one tenth of an inch. * WHERE...Portions of central Pennsylvania. * WHEN...From 4 PM Monday to 9 AM EST Tuesday. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning or evening commute. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...The heaviest precipitation rates will occur during the first half of Monday night.

The GFS is far from set in stone for the Friday event. Here is the 18z run (top) vs. the 12z run (bottom). The 18z moved the snow line over 100 miles back to the south in PA. The 12z run had the 3 inch line in Williamsport. The 18z run has the 3 inch line in Lancaster. This is not done yet for anyone in PA!

The 18z ICON has over 6 inches of snow for most of CTP, including the LSV, at the end of the run at 120 hours on Friday afternoon. I posted the low position at the end of the run at 18z Friday. I don’t have access to 24 hour ICON snow maps, but the iCON has no snow in the LSV with the event tomorrow night. I posted below the ICON snow through Tuesday am & then the snow map through Friday at the end of the run. All of the snow in Harrisburg, York & Lancaster is from the Friday event, which is still ongoing at the end of the run Friday at 18z.

Lol, the GFS had the original idea for this major snow storm for multiple days & runs until the last couple of days. The vast majority of the other models & ensembles had a major Winter storm for the last couple of days. The GFS was the only Outlier this weekend! The 12z Euro & Canadian still have a Warning level event. This is not over for most of us in CTP.

Cool…see you at 18z… or next Winter?

Long way to….CTP is in the game…

The 12z Euro was a step in the wrong direction, but still delivers a major Winter storm to all of CTP, but has more mixing for southern PA this run.

The 12z Canadian ensemble still looks good as well for Friday pm.

The 12z ICON is still on board for a major Winter storm for all of CTP.

The 12z Canadian still says to buckle up for a Warning level Winter storm for CTP on Friday.

Great signals for a major storm chance!

Here was the 0z EPS

Here is the Canadian ensemble.

Here was the 0z Euro snow map!

It’s finally go time around here!

Here was the 0z Euro, wow!

Never mind, I will re post them… easy way to up my post count… lol !

Go back a page…. I set my Euro alarm & was up at 3 am posting!

Side note…. It is fun to finally need to clarify which Winter event that is being posted about seeing that we have 2 events within the next 5 days!

Here is my CTP zone forecast for tomorrow Monday Rain, snow, and sleet likely, mainly after 5pm. Increasing clouds, with a high near 40. Light and variable wind becoming southeast 9 to 14 mph in the morning. Winds could gust as high as 23 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New snow and sleet accumulation of less than a half inch possible. Monday Night Rain, snow, and sleet before 9pm, then rain and sleet. Low around 34. Southeast wind 6 to 16 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow and sleet accumulation of less than a half inch possible.

Same Wintry look on the 6z RGEM for tomorrow night. Decent minor amounts of snow & sleet this run.

6z Euro is onboard for tomorrow pm Winter weather.

Positive trends continue for the tomorrow pm event for our Winter weather chances. Here was the 6z extended HRRR

Fantastic 0z EPS run to support the Euro Op run! Impressive individual ensemble member low tracks & snow mean for this being 5 days out.

Top 10 storm historic for the LSV if this verified! Kuchera map for just this storm.