Blizzard of 93

0z Euro shows a snow chance on Friday night.

I hope that you had a great day at Elizabeth Farms! We took our 2 daughters there for around the last 8 years. They have a nice set up there to see Santa & get a good photo that often became our Christmas card. We would then take a ride on their horse drawn wagons that take you out to the tree cutting area. We just enjoyed the ride, even though we’ve always had an artificial tree, lol. Then we’d get some cocoa in their gift shop while we warmed up. Our kids always picked out a new ornament for our tree each year. Enjoy it my friend, because time flies! My daughters are now 12 & 14 and this is the first year that we did not go to Elizabeth Farms because they both now have out grown going to see Santa!

Last year the Euro seasonal run in December had above normal for January and last January ended up well below normal.

0z GFS show 2 chances of snow. The first chance is Friday & then another chance early next week.

There’s a decent signal on the 12z EPS for a chance of another Advisory type of event in the Friday/Saturday period.

There’s a decent signal on the 12z EPS for a chance of another Advisory type of event in the Friday/Saturday period.

Good post from @Bob Chill Upper air pattern is pretty potent with the neg nao breaking down but no sign of a big storm trigger yet. Just looking at the indices makes you think an Archambault type event is I the cards but the northern stream is so busy that it's running interference on itself lol. Something compact but potent n the NS could pop imho. Blocking is quite strong over the next 5 days then things unwind for a bit. Interesting and complex period on tap. Not really a setup that "locks into" anything so it would be a mistake to marry anything in the mid/long ranges

12z Euro is trying for Friday am as well

12z GFS & Canadian just got a lot more interesting for this Friday.

Lol, the Wednesday Clipper is passing well to our north & we’ll be lucky to see a sprinkle from it. The pattern later this week should give us a couple of chances of light snow.

Indeed, now we just need some snow to come along .

18z GFS trying to get something going next Thursday.

0z Euro is trying to get us a chance next Friday night.

Low of 17 in Marysville

@Itstrainingtime Great call on the MDT low of 21 ! The cloud cover held up their temperature.

Good post about the MJO from @GaWx in the ENSO thread today. “Just like yesterday, the GEFS and EPS disagree on how long the MJO will stay in phase 8: GEFS: only 6 days though it returns for rd 2 on 12/18: But the EPS, which recently has been much steadier and has been verifying better than GEFS since phase 7, once again is going with a very long phase 8 (16+ days, longest in 50 years): you can’t place an MJO better than this in Dec for E US cold lovers (and it looks to be cold the next 10 days per models though one must remember that there are always other factors to consider due to the complexity of the atmosphere):”

Good point, the 7 pm MDT observation still had wind at 13 mph.

CTP has the forecast low at 14 tonight for MDT. The remaining snow cover could help the temps to bottom out. Current dew point is 13 at MDT.

Looks like a very cold night tonight! Unfortunately for us, the light event tomorrow is not getting north of BWI, but good to see those folks getting the chance to score a little snow. This coming week we need to see if we can get some table scraps from any of these Clippers. The advertised pattern for the next few weeks should keep us mostly in the game. Hopefully it’s just a matter of time before we are back to tracking a specific chance for more snow.

Still showing MM for the snow measurement at MDT in the overnight climate summary. They must be really stumped on this one.

6z Euro keeps the LSV in the game for a light snow chance on Friday.

After further review of the minute breakdown of MDT’s observations, approximately .35 of precip fell today as snow or snow/sleet mix. MDT showed 1 inch snow depth at 7 am on only .07 of precip, so there must have been decent ratios early on. It then proceeded to snow or snow/sleet mix there for over 3 more hours. As I mentioned, MDT recorded snow or snow/sleet mix from around 5:30 am until around 10:15 am before the full flip to freezing rain. Based on this & surrounding observations, hopefully we get a MDT official reading near @canderson prediction of 2.5” snow for the event.

I was on a Teams call today & one of the guys was located in Middletown directly across the street from MDT. I watched it snow heavily through his window on my screen between 9:30 & 10.

Look again… it’s predominantly snow or snow/mix until a little after 10 am…

Soon my friend, hopefully you & the Lanco crew cash in on the next one! The pattern looks potentially active through the next week, so hopefully it won’t be long until we are back tracking a specific chance.