The 4 Seasons

Can't do the EC but this is the GFS/GEM trend for 500mb track at hr 78 for the past 9 cycles. GEM has made huge swings, while GFS has been much more consistent. GEM started very far north then jumped south, then corrected in the middle while GFS was pretty consistent.

Reasonable first call. I believe most of the accumulation for CT will come in on the second half with the storm gets going S of LI and drifts east, and the problem with that is its still 2.5-3.5 days out. Lots of variables with the storm and i think confidence is low/bust potential high.

Everyone will probably end up getting 6+ and the usual hole over Groton/ New Londong of 3-6 or even 1-3. Poor guys.

I'm waiting till early tomorrow to do a map, feel its just too early but i get why news stations and nws has done theirs, completely. The start of the storm is only ~36hrs away but the end is still 3.5 days out or 84hrs. Waiting for the 00z/12z main suites, then ill post a first call, Sat night maybe 2nd call and Sunday morning before the storm begins final call.

thats your location?

For the entire event this is what OKX is going with: As for snowfall amounts, 6 to 12 inches are possible across portions of Northeast New Jersey, the Lower Hudson Valley and inland southern Connecticut. A Winter Storm Watch has been issued for these areas. This is a long duration event, with a snow to rain to snow changeover for many places. There may be impacts to the holiday travel on Sunday, and the Monday morning and evening commutes depending on location and precipitation type transitions. 2 to 4 inches are expected across southern Westchester and coastal Connecticut and portions of Northeast New Jersey and portions of southeast Connecticut. 1 to 3 inches are expected for New York City, metro New Jersey, Long Island.

And Jerry, thats only till 7PM on Monday, still snowing for most.

Snowfall total trend on EC since last Sunday

I don't have any upper air data to work with for the EC but here are some sfc trend GIFs

Here is the GEM 18Z run, snow total accumulation through 84hr compare to RGEM 18Z above.

18Z GFS is much juicer on the front end WWA thump than previous 12Z run.

You can tell thats a MA channel map, inland central ct mainly rain? nah. inland central CT does not equal SE MA in anyway shape or form. Plus, thats like the tropics/Florida anyways.

Hamden has climates within its own town, seasons in seasons. You can be raining and 37 on RT 10 at 100ft elevation with zero pack and heavy snow and 32 on gaylord mt road at 600ft elevation. Those areas of hamden deep in the woods probably avg 10-15" more than downtown hamden.

Those true SLR maps from TT are atrocious, almost always underdone, even in marginal events that we know are going to be all snow with around 10:1 paste bombs. When it's questionable it will be even worse. On the other hand 10:1 NAM maps from TT are just as bad in the other direction. Moral: don't use clown maps for forecasting or verification, in any way. Just nice to look at it is all.

ICON looks about the same to me

I'm in my early 30s as well, and being a cop in NYC im surpised you never heard of it. Die Hard and Seinfeld are two of many that use this slang. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_and_white_(police_vehicle)

serious? i dont remember this and ive seen every episode like 20 times. id probably remember if i saw it again.

i imagine him on a horse in central park

slang for patrol car, a roller, etc maybe before your time? but i imagine were close to the same age.

Do you post on your smartphone while sitting in your black and white

You're welcome here lieutenant.

Surprised they didn't start a thread tbh. NAM was not an improvement for most, looked a bit warmer and north of 18Z but its still in never never land.

Slick way of asking "how much for (X) questions"

It's that perspective bias, we even see this with the NWS. OKX treats the northern zones like Canada, and the southern zones like the tropics. Reminds me of that Mass-holes map that was posted in this forum. You can even see it with this storm with the LFOs in CT. 4 Southern Zones in CT, which are the northern most zones of OKX were the snowiest but the southern Zones of ALY (Litchfield) and BOX (Hartford, Tolland, Windham) included more rain/sleet/mix and less snow than areas south of them.

I'd put the bullseye much farther north than that map though if i were to make one, i cant see SW, S Central CT getting more snow than all of MA. Not right now anways.