The 4 Seasons

That devil face East of the cape. Thats what youre talking about?

It probably wont but there have been some W-E gradient storms, specifically the analog that i like the best...12-15-02.... where NYC got more than E and NE CT

i always go back and forth on how much weight to give it, its a new model and i just dont know if i believe it one way or the other. It doesn't seem as bad as some of the worst though like NAVGEM/JMA

When does the 18Z Euro come out? Must be like 7pm or so going by when the 12z starts rolling

No, no last resort is an individual EPS member, even with 12 hrs to go, because then you can say "well its the best model and a member of the best model shows X"

oh you switched bodies i see.

NYC gets more than TOL on that 18Z RGEM run, LOL

48-60 lmao.

6Z euro looks better for the 2nd round as the low gets going S LI. Main focus is W areas though.

Yeah, i have a feeling im going to be pretty conservative with this storm, lots of ways this can bust, lead time for rd 2 is still aways away and the analogs aren't impressing me. With the surface low tucked in like that and so close to us its always been a lose-lose, either a huge slot punches up through central and eastern CT or we change over for an extended period and end as snow, seen it in so many storm. NAM looks pretty dry for an extended period around here over H8. I'll look at things more closely and wait till 12z to make a call. 6Z GFS is pretty gross, good thing its the worst.

You dont see this get used to much but i imagine they are going with 24hr totals for this storm, in some places 12 or 24 won't matter. But for CT and surrounding locales probably need the 24 threshold. I still like 12-25-02 for the best fitting analog. Surface track, H5 and H7 are very close throughout the duration. 12-07-03 might be the top analog for the storm at the 72 hour panel but subjectively, 12-25-02 makes more sense to me. Plus the airmass is closer to that storm and no 12-07-03

no doubt, confidence is low given the lead timing. But they did upgrade a lot to warnings where its pretty much guarantted to be 8 and in some places 9" or more snow totals.

NWS not confident enough to turn a lot of those watches over to warnings, not even Litchfield or Worcester yet.

surprise, surprise.

final CT totals vs. FX

March 2nd 2019

the track of the slp and H5, H7 for this storm felt eerily similar to Dec 24-26 2002 and Jan 3-4 2003, i checked CIPS and sure enough they both were in the top 10 analogs. 12-6-2003 being the top analog. That was a different situation though as i believe the airmass was signicantly colder to work with. The other two were boarderline like this storm.

i cant post a single map from anywhere right now as my max total size is down to a strange 0.38MB, anyone know why that is, i tried to msg dendrite but didn't hear back

Start big and then go really big, then go bigger

1-3 is a fair call for NYC right now, sorry if that hurts your feelings but its not biased. NWS OKX is the same

Yea i tried to do it again at 84 for both, GFS is every 6 and GEM every 12, that's all TT has. GEM does run 4 times a day but TT doesn't have it and i believe it only goes out to 84hrs, at least on MeteoCentre models.

Edit: its because GFS runs every 6 hrs and GEM runs every 12 on TT

Thats so weird because both models have 6hr increments at those times, they just choose to use 6hr for GFS and 12hr GEM?

hmm im going to blame it on the fever, let me correct this.

Looks like records are going to fall for BDR. The record snowfall amount for the past 70+ years on Dec 1st is a TRACE. Dec 2nd 2.5" and Dec 3rd 1.4". All those are in jeapordy. With Dec 1 the most likely to fall. It's crazy that over 70 years, that many records in december are only T, 1 or 2" of snowfall.