The 4 Seasons

the track of the slp and H5, H7 for this storm felt eerily similar to Dec 24-26 2002 and Jan 3-4 2003, i checked CIPS and sure enough they both were in the top 10 analogs. 12-6-2003 being the top analog. That was a different situation though as i believe the airmass was signicantly colder to work with. The other two were boarderline like this storm.

i cant post a single map from anywhere right now as my max total size is down to a strange 0.38MB, anyone know why that is, i tried to msg dendrite but didn't hear back

Start big and then go really big, then go bigger

1-3 is a fair call for NYC right now, sorry if that hurts your feelings but its not biased. NWS OKX is the same

Yea i tried to do it again at 84 for both, GFS is every 6 and GEM every 12, that's all TT has. GEM does run 4 times a day but TT doesn't have it and i believe it only goes out to 84hrs, at least on MeteoCentre models.

Edit: its because GFS runs every 6 hrs and GEM runs every 12 on TT

Thats so weird because both models have 6hr increments at those times, they just choose to use 6hr for GFS and 12hr GEM?

hmm im going to blame it on the fever, let me correct this.

Looks like records are going to fall for BDR. The record snowfall amount for the past 70+ years on Dec 1st is a TRACE. Dec 2nd 2.5" and Dec 3rd 1.4". All those are in jeapordy. With Dec 1 the most likely to fall. It's crazy that over 70 years, that many records in december are only T, 1 or 2" of snowfall.

Can't do the EC but this is the GFS/GEM trend for 500mb track at hr 78 for the past 9 cycles. GEM has made huge swings, while GFS has been much more consistent. GEM started very far north then jumped south, then corrected in the middle while GFS was pretty consistent.

Reasonable first call. I believe most of the accumulation for CT will come in on the second half with the storm gets going S of LI and drifts east, and the problem with that is its still 2.5-3.5 days out. Lots of variables with the storm and i think confidence is low/bust potential high.

Everyone will probably end up getting 6+ and the usual hole over Groton/ New Londong of 3-6 or even 1-3. Poor guys.

I'm waiting till early tomorrow to do a map, feel its just too early but i get why news stations and nws has done theirs, completely. The start of the storm is only ~36hrs away but the end is still 3.5 days out or 84hrs. Waiting for the 00z/12z main suites, then ill post a first call, Sat night maybe 2nd call and Sunday morning before the storm begins final call.

thats your location?

For the entire event this is what OKX is going with: As for snowfall amounts, 6 to 12 inches are possible across portions of Northeast New Jersey, the Lower Hudson Valley and inland southern Connecticut. A Winter Storm Watch has been issued for these areas. This is a long duration event, with a snow to rain to snow changeover for many places. There may be impacts to the holiday travel on Sunday, and the Monday morning and evening commutes depending on location and precipitation type transitions. 2 to 4 inches are expected across southern Westchester and coastal Connecticut and portions of Northeast New Jersey and portions of southeast Connecticut. 1 to 3 inches are expected for New York City, metro New Jersey, Long Island.

And Jerry, thats only till 7PM on Monday, still snowing for most.

Snowfall total trend on EC since last Sunday

I don't have any upper air data to work with for the EC but here are some sfc trend GIFs

Here is the GEM 18Z run, snow total accumulation through 84hr compare to RGEM 18Z above.

18Z GFS is much juicer on the front end WWA thump than previous 12Z run.

You can tell thats a MA channel map, inland central ct mainly rain? nah. inland central CT does not equal SE MA in anyway shape or form. Plus, thats like the tropics/Florida anyways.

Hamden has climates within its own town, seasons in seasons. You can be raining and 37 on RT 10 at 100ft elevation with zero pack and heavy snow and 32 on gaylord mt road at 600ft elevation. Those areas of hamden deep in the woods probably avg 10-15" more than downtown hamden.

Those true SLR maps from TT are atrocious, almost always underdone, even in marginal events that we know are going to be all snow with around 10:1 paste bombs. When it's questionable it will be even worse. On the other hand 10:1 NAM maps from TT are just as bad in the other direction. Moral: don't use clown maps for forecasting or verification, in any way. Just nice to look at it is all.

ICON looks about the same to me

I'm in my early 30s as well, and being a cop in NYC im surpised you never heard of it. Die Hard and Seinfeld are two of many that use this slang. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_and_white_(police_vehicle)