The 4 Seasons

@OceanStWx can correct me but i think they did away with the Freezing Rain & Ice Storm Warning products and lumped themp into WWA and WSW products. But this is the criteria nontheless. I think we are a candidate for this in the four southern counties of CT. Highly doubt they will be up this evening though. 

GFS ice for CT, its getting colder each run. Coming towards EC. Still a half inch for most is serious.

32 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Holy smokes

my thoughts exactly, freezing rain looks serious for southern CT

2 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

Still , 4 inches ?

There has to be at least 10 inches here to cancel school.

That seems unrealistic. A winter storm warning is issued for an avg of 6". You can bet your bottom dollar if we are expecting 4-8 and its snowing during the AM rush all schools will be closed, and they should be imo.

Just now, Snow88 said:

They cancel school for 4 inches ?

??? um...that seems to be more than enough from my experience in CT, i imagine NYC would be even more liberal with the cancellations. It depends on road conditions obviously. But almost all schools were cancelled here for the last storm across the state, even the shore and most places only got 2-4, with 0.5-2 at the coast. 

It all depends on timing. If we get 6-12 the night before and it ends at 4AM, there probably will be a 2 hour delay. If the forecast is for 2-4 or even 1-3 and its snowing at 5-9am, schools will be closed.

@weatherwiz

Coolwx is a great site to get a quick glance at omega/growth and p-type accumulation, if bufkit isn't your thing. Even so, it's still faster than downloading and loading profiles into bufkit.

6Z GFS has a lot of ice for CT ranging from .1-.6 and NAM from .1-.4 with the exception of BDL. Again southern CT inland from the immediate coast looks to be in the most trouble.

.666 Ice for OXC on the GFS

Just now, Ginx snewx said:

Cancel 

Lot's of cancellations on Tuesday, probably most of the state. Shoreline is the only place in question.

Just now, weatherwiz said:

I certainly wonder if there can be like a 4-6'' spot up along the CT/MA border. Strongest lift here is just above the DGZ but the front end potential with this looks pretty intriguing. 

 

I agree. Probably going to be taking things up a bit for the final call. Want to check out the 12Z suite first. 

@weathafella

Deep Thruster & RPM with a 6-8 stripe along the MA boarder/I-90

Just now, Ginx snewx said:

Heres the variable with 10 to 1. But I am going to watch final totals closely as I still think with the Euro lift and colder column there is a warning level strip. That website absolutely sucks on mobile. Geezuz 

 

 

I refuse to look at anything other than this forum on mobile. I don't know how you guys do it. It's like having your hands tied behind your back, but maybe that's what you're into

8 minutes ago, Hoth said:

Do you think this compares to last January, or maybe a little less?

Last jan was a different beast, definitely a bigger system. What really made that event really bad was the extreme drop in temperature combined with high winds right after. We got down into the single digits, nothing melted not even on the roads. And with the high winds, trees came down left and right, tons of people without power. This made it exceptionally bad for road crews to try and restore power.

The impact will be less this time for sure as we are not dealing with the winds and extreme temperatures. As far as straight ice accumulation i think it could approach or rival that of Jan 19 2019. Probably end up being a little bit less though i imagine.

Just now, dendrite said:

I’m pretty plastered right now from taking shots for every 12/13/07 reference I’ve seen. 

I don't even remember that event. 

Let's talk about it.

850s start to blow through CT around 12Z and make it all the way up to about just shy of the pass pike before retreating.

Here's the 6Z ECMWF weenie map for you winter weather weenies 

6 minutes ago, Mr. Windcredible! said:

 

Right at the shoreline it’ll likely be a 31-32 deg fz rain deal, which certainly doesn’t spell disaster. In the 12 years I e been here I’ve never seen much more than a glaze to maybe 0.1”. I could see it being a bigger deal back W, the I-91/15 corridor and up to about 84 as you say. The Q River valley does a remarkably good job funneling down cold air towards HVN/BDR if the wind direction is right.

 

This.

Weenie maps are showing a great deal of zr accumulation right down to the shore. In the 0.4-0.6 range. I went lower at the immediate the shore and right now feel the significant icing threat is along the merritt pkwy to about and around 84. Especially central valley CT like you said is prime for freezing rain. My area to MMK could be in some trouble. This isn't a huge event i don't think, i.e. ice storm warning criteria >0.5, that's probably the cap. But i can certainly see some inland valley areas getting 0.25-0.50". The freezing rain soundings on the NAM bufkit are no joke, it's light enough to accure, cold enough and long enough to accumulate well.

2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

New HRRV4 online at Pivotal 6Z. Getting Thumpity.  Look out for Thumper the Dumper Kev, MPM ORH Hippy Hunchie Ray line 

 

Yea, i just took a look at that. One noticable difference compared to the rest of the model suite is that it brings snow in much earlier with the leading edge entering fairfield county around 9pm and keeps most of the state snow until around 9Z. I can only see H85/H7/SFC temps though. Then after 9Z the transition begins with a lot of sleet inland and freezing rain for the southern half of CT. The bulk of it ends tomorrow afternoon. Not sure how trust worthy the long range HRRRv4 is. How did it perform on the last two events? I haven't really been looking at it much.

Not sure why the NWS is so bearish on the icing potential. For most of CT and RI they only have a couple one hundredths of an inch with a max at hartford of .11

@weathafella

Much more is quite the overstatement. Big story on the NAM is the sig icing event here in CT. This could be bad for us.

Ice storm on the 00Z NAM for interior southern and central CT

First call for Wednesdays mixed bag event. If trends continue ill make an update tomorrow but hoping not to. EC/NAM/Can used for the forecast GFS completely ignored.

2 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

The temp issue does not surprise me.  The GFS is getting worse over time it seems with low level cold.  The evolution of the setup is probably too complicated as well. Models tend to struggle in these setups where you've got a dying wave of WAA precip as we do here then almost an entirely new system taking over.  They usually end up massively blowing some aspect of it.  This is why the belt from NYC to where you are is so tough tomorrow because they could bust both on the initial WAA area not dying as fast as expected and then the 2nd round being earlier/colder

that would be nice. I'm making a map right now, actually 2, one for ice one for snow. Leaning heavily on the ECMWF/NAM/Canadian, disregarding the GFS. My biggest challenge right now i feel is the immediate shore and whether they flip over to rain or get prolonged icing. Past experience tells me BDR/HVN/GON should pop above 32 into the mid 30s

2 minutes ago, FXWX said:

The early dismissal option is the only option that is not on the table.  Late openings Tuesday or cancellations are the 2 most likely outcomes... Early dismissals are in play when an event is arriving during the afternoon, not when it starts the night before or during the predawn hours.

I forsee widespread closures for most of the state due to icing, with the exception of the immediate shore may just have delays or nothing at all, unless it ends up being much colder there.

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

Euro def ticked north a bit but it was also better on precip...the two are likely connected in this case. 

We should also say that it is nowhere near the 18z gfs solution as to not confuse people who aren't reading each model output. Euro was still pretty cold even though it was a bit warmer than 12z. 

It's pretty amazing how we are about 24 hours from the event and the GFS & ECMWF are worlds apart. GFS is literally all rain here and EC is all frozen and barely makes it to 31.

1 minute ago, SnowGoose69 said:

 

One thing I am marginally afraid of tomorrow from about NYC-SW CT is that there could be an earlier surge in the 21-00Z window of precipitation that is unforecast by all models right now.  If that happened places like HPN/BDR could see a surprise several inches of snow

What gives you that inclination

It was just more robust on the front end on the 18Z run that increased the snowfall across CT...it ticked warmer at H85, i cant see the profile or any other layers though on weathermodels.

Here's another map from 12Z, ZR accum.

cant see much yet but this looks like a south tick on the thermals just for comparison reference, can't get into weathermodels atm.