The 4 Seasons

1 hour ago, powderfreak said:

You mean the posters from CT, one from MA, one from NH and one from ME?  Should I add one from VT to round out most of New England ?

Whenever i see a post with a bunch of weenies on it, i just add one it's fun to pig pile like that. Or if a post has a weenie, a wow, a confused, a thanks...ill add a sad just to try to make the whole gamut of emotions

Edit: I only see one heart and one weenie....you can do better than that...

Edit 2: getting better...one confused, i like those

Edit 3: we're gettin close, just need a thanks and a sad...maybe a few more weenies too for the fire

Edit 4: A sad face and we've made it

Edit 5: We have arrived, i'm so proud of this community.

The HRRR has the 850 0C line just north of the shoreline at 12Z and the RGEM is at the MA boarder, worlds apart.

RGEM is significantly warmer at H85 and is absolutely putrid for snow in CT, almost nothing up to 84. Pretty much all mix from the start.

1 minute ago, moneypitmike said:

And your 10:1 clown.

Factoring ncp, Region-wide advisory .

That map is utterly useless. Unless you want to confuse the public and post them all over social media, it's good for that.

@RU848789 and just as you say that and post an updated map, NWS PHI uses the old criteria for the warnings and issues a Winter Storm Warning for .25" of ice. Maybe they are just fudging it a little bit and going for impacts and combination of 2-4" of snow and .25ice combined, those two alone dont meet warning criteria though. At least not from the map you posted.

As i suspected...

Although the snow totals and the ice
totals individually fall below Warning criteria, believe that
the combination of the two will result in Warning level impacts.

Just now, Bostonseminole said:

has box updated their maps lately? I don't see an update since 3:30 am

New advisories out for OKX, upped snowfall for 2-4" staying conservative with the ice with 0.1-0.2. nothing new from BOX or ALY yet. maps are still old

NAM & 3K NAM GW for S CT with now over 1.00" of ZR. Obviously those numbers are too high for this type of event. Still think up to a half inch is possible though. ill be interested to check out the soundings in bufkit when the 18zs come out. 

@weathafella

4 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Thanks, But we already no the thermals are junk, That wasn't where this was going.

Well that was just part of what said, I did say it was over amped and too far N, i just threw the thermals in there and prefaced it with the obvious, which clearly was a mistake. It's all good

2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Models won before 1 flake fell? Lol 

Thats really the main point here

Well the storm hasn't happened yet so i don't think anyone should be counting chickens just yet.

With that said, the GFS is not likely to win anything, by a long shot. As will said it was way over amped and thermals were awful as usual. Well have to take a look after its all said and done but what i've seen recently is that the GFS is coming south and cooling off and the EC coming north, just a consensus being reached atm.

4 minutes ago, CT Rain said:

HRRR with quite a weenie stripe through centrtal CT

Weenie stripe

3 minutes ago, RU848789 said:

 

Always though that map was odd - why have NYC Metro with higher ZR criteria than Sussex/Warren/Morris, where ZR is far more common.  I'm sure some of that was due to the office boundaries, which is why I like the current ice storm warning criteria, which is at least more consistent from east to west (although I'd orient it more SW to NE than this with Union/Essex/Hudson and NYC/LI in the 0.25" criterion.  

 

ah i see, where did you find that, id like to see if there are updates to any other wwa or wsws

2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

If I had to pick zone of .50-.75 ice it would be southern Naugatuck Valley. Bethany area loves to accrete big ice. Might happen again with this 

@BuildingScienceWx loves ice...damn ice!

Thumpity Thump on the 18Z RPM covers even S CT with 4-6" ill post a map for Jerry when its done

7 minutes ago, FXWX said:

BDL coarse sounding from 12z Euro; valid 12z Tuesday...

 

howd you get your hands on that?

Saw people talking about the Ice Storm warnings, here is the criteria. It's 0.5...0.25 farther SW.

The Freezing Rain Advisory was discontinued, it'll now be under a Winter Weather Advisory but the Ice Storm Warning is still in use.

Advisories expanded into southern CT down to the shore. Highly doubt we see any warnings though, criteria won't be met on either the snow or ice side of things.

looks like the euro came north a bit, still a mess for ct but it seems like we are reaching consensus now

Just now, weatherwiz said:

Can we do a severe wx thread in this subforum that's dedicated to severe wx outside of New England? Would be good practice for when our season heats up 

Go for it, you can start one..though i think you'll be talking to yourself in there

Just now, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

If there was a “everything breaks right for snow” output... I think this would be it

The RPM goes through stages from "if everything breaks right" to "if everything goes to sh!t" and everything in between, i think it's written into the code.

HRRR is pretty damn juicy at the end of the latest few runs. a good 2-4 is looking likely even right down to the shore.

Just now, Ginx snewx said:

Windsexy after. 

do tell. i haven't looked at anything after 00z tomorrow night

2 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Updated forecast 

WOAH at the SPC outlook   

“environment will support risk for multiple significant tornadoes” 

Going big with the ice i see. I am likely bumping up the .1-.3 range to .25-.50, our zones are the same though. My biggest problem though is forecasting the shore, you think they dont see any ice accumulation at all? I dont think itll be as big as inland areas but still have up to a tenth or so..

4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I'd be surprised if anyone in CT saw a half inch of ice. There's definitely going to be some solid icing but you're prob not getting as much as the icing algorithms think. There's a pretty thick layer of below freezing air for a while....which tells me there's going to be some sleet in there that probably hangs on longer than ptype algorithms allow for...and then of course you have to lop off additional tenths because the accretion efficiency isn't going to have a 1 to 1 ratio (for every tenth of QPF that falls as ZR, prob like 0.06-0.07 will accrete, and that ratio falls during very heavy precip).....this is a heavy burst of precip that is prob done in 6-8 hours. Still, even a quarter to a third inch of ice is no slouch and could cause some issues.

 

Can't totally rule it out though....a SWFE on 1/8/05 gave a narrow band in CT a half inch of ice. But everything has to go perfect when you're talking a duration that short. Most siggy icing events are much longer.

BUFKIT is showing 12 full hours of ZR for HVN, ranging from .017 to .169/hr usually ranging around .060 per hour for a total of .805. Say we lose 30-40% of that due to run off. That's still .5" of total ice.

Precip is on the light side so that will help with accretion. Temps rangning from 27-32F. I don't think a widespread .5-.75 is likely but i think its in the cards, like you said if everything goes right. .25-.50 is not an unreasonable forecast thought for interior S CT.

Total snow before the flip is 3.7" on bufkit so well have a solid concrete pack for a while if that pans out.

Those are some high probs on the EPS, though we are really close