CCHurricane

CMC going the way of the EURO. Not looking good for the GFS

Confirmation bias here we come. 18z ICON with the big bump NW for SE New England.

It won’t take much to move it another 50 miles…

Nuke for the Cape...widespread 8-12 for most of SE New England.

Likely the last flood of the pond this winter here on Cape Cod. What a stretch of cold…snowstorm from 3 weeks ago that dropped 15” still very much OTG. Since January 24th (22 days): 19 days with high temps below 33°F 18 nights with lows below 20°F 9 nights with lows below 10°F

In over +100 years (since 1918), Boston is looking to make a run at the longest stretch (19-days) where day-time highs failed to break above 34°F (currently at 16). Impressive stuff to not have a few days pop into the 40's, while also considering the potentially warm-biased Logan readings vs. history.

So just a tad more than 1 inch. Gotta stay positive! Results to the north boded well for you.

Looks light on Cape, have +30" WTD in Barnstable

I fundamentally do not understand coming to a conclusion based on a 360-hour EPS run. If this past storm was any indication, these sort of model "means" can be wildly inaccurate even at just 120 hours out. Modeled period of elevated activity =/ snowfall.

We watch

There’s gotta be some +4” reports coming from this south shore band when it’s all said and done, no?

2-4 mm

23z HRRR with signs of the cave. All she wrote, on to the next one.

And 12z with the rug pull. Cape Cod will be lucky to come away with an inch. Inside 120hrs, a disaster class by the full suite of models. OP, AI, and Ensembles.

00Z suite look tepid. Max QPF across any one model is looking like 0.3, and thats the 12k NAM (whereas the 3k is only showing 0.15). NWS may have to discontinue that WSWatch, 4-7 looking a tad ambitious.

Cape Cod may be lucky to even get a dusting at this rate... Such wasted potential for all!

Oh I totally agree, haha. Just interested in that output given the QPF dump. Drifting would be historic at +50mph, redux 2005 despite it being a totally different setup.

I need a Kuchie output stat!

NOT TOO FAR

AI-GFS says game on for eastern areas...

#8 all-time storm here in Boston. Hard to complain about that. With this one wrapped up and on the books, 5 of the top 10 storms all-time for Boston will have come since 2013. Now to take a breather and enjoy some deep winter vibes.

BOS database management failing here, not sure why they are appearing to stack rank by single-day snowfall amounts (in the case of partial snowfall for 2003 storm) and compare to a 2-day total here. 2003 Presidents’ Day blizzard saw 27.6 for Boston and is actually the #1 all-time. 23.2” is still good for 8th all-time, just not right behind 2003.

Whatever helps you sleep at night… The fact remains that this was a memorable storm for all of the right reasons. Just because you weren’t here for it doesn’t make it any less important for those who experienced it. No different for what I’m sure have been countless events you’ve found memorable, that don’t even register for fellow board members. But you don’t see them being a complete a-hole about how it’s “not a big deal” that ultimately devolves into a juvenile gatekeeping / competition about who experienced “the best storms”. This storm will be memorable for all of the right reasons; 1) entrenched arctic airmass that held it’s ground 2) just the right amount of model waffling that brought this back from being a non-event Wed/Thur of last week 3 historically well producing SWFE that effected 1/3 of the country. 4) numerous +20” totals across the state of Massachusetts. 5) unpredictable mesoscale ending with amazing snowfall rates. 6 the most historically relevant metro area having this event stand at #10 all-time.