Random Chaos

35.2F, moderate to heavy snow, minimal sticking - mostly melting on contact.

36.7F here. That's already below what some models were calling for tomorrow at dawn.

Just took some temperature measurements with my IR thermometer. My measurements are for just NW of Sandy Point State Park. Soil surface temperature varied between 29.8F and 35.2 F with most readings in the 32 to 33F range. This was measured after the sun dipped below the horizon. Chesapeake Bay temperature measured 33.8F (this is near shore on the open bay, not up a river or creek). This is the same as what I measured last night. My weather station has air temperature at 45.9F I don't see temperature as a likely problem come morning near the Chesapeake Bay. As a note, there is still snowcrete from the last storm on a beach near the top of it. I also have scattered spots in my yard that still have snowcrete.

How? Chesapeake bay running 34F (I measured 33.8F yesterday) and we have a gale warning for winds off the water. Peak surface temperatures for Annapolis area will be held close to freezing from those winds. I don’t see temperatures near the water to be a problem.

Not everyone. Annapolis went from 18 ro 23” high end.

10:1 stuck a 27.9” over us on GFS

Just measured the bay temperature with an IR thermometer, 33.8F. Near shore so might be high given daytime solar heating on shallow water. Near bay bridge.

Bay is 34F right now. Not exactly warm. This is forecast for Sunday 7am:

What’s with the ptype on RGEM. Feels like the 540 line is too far south for it to be rain that far north on hr 69.

Just remember that if the ECMWF caves to the GFS, the Euro is still king and the GFS still sucks.

FV3-Hires 0z looks good at end of run, very similar 500mb to 18z GFS.

I feel like GFS is back!

They are flying today: II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS 1. FLIGHT ONE - TEAL 75 A. 27/0000Z B. AFXXX 15WSE IOP15 C. 26/1830Z D. 25 DROPS APPROXIMATELY 60 NM APART WITHIN AN AREA BOUNDED BY: 30.0N 150.0W, 30.0N 130.0W, 50.0N 130.0W, AND 50.0N 150.0W E. AS HIGH AS POSSIBLE/ 26/2030Z TO 27/0230Z 2. FLIGHT TWO - TEAL 77 A. 27/0000Z B. AFXXX 03WSC IOP15 C. 26/1830Z D. 25 DROPS APPROXIMATELY 60 NM APART WITHIN AN AREA BOUNDED BY: 40.0N 175.0W, 40.0N 150.0W, 20.0N 150.0W, AND 20.0N 175.0W E. AS HIGH AS POSSIBLE/ 26/2030Z TO 27/0230Z And tomorrow: II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS 1. FLIGHT ONE - TEAL 74 A. 28/0000Z B. AFXXX 16WSE IOP16 C. 27/1700Z (CORRECTED) D. 25 DROPS APPROXIMATELY 60 NM APART WITHIN AN AREA BOUNDED BY: 35.0N 125.0W, 35.0N 155.0W, 50.0N 155.0W, AND 50.0N 125.0W E. AS HIGH AS POSSIBLE/ 27/2030Z TO 28/0230Z 2. FLIGHT TWO - TEAL 77 A. 28/0000Z B. AF309 03WSC IOP16 C. 27/1845Z D. 25 DROPS APPROXIMATELY 60 NM APART WITHIN AN AREA BOUNDED BY: 40.0N 165.0W, 40.0N 145.0W, 20.0N 145.0W, AND 20.0N 165.0W E. AS HIGH AS POSSIBLE/ 27/2030Z TO 28/0230Z

Wonder how these new models released today check out? https://finance.yahoo.com/news/nvidia-unveils-ai-models-faster-194409918.html

IAD Soundin

20.0F / 6.1F

Sterling radar showing virga at about 3000 ft beam height now, full circle around the radar.

22.2/6.0 winds gusting to 32mph

Those are some crazy snowfall rates at 11am Sunday on the RGEM.

Seems as modeled to me. Right now I am 38.7F. Most recent NAM calls for 39F. 24 hours ago NAM called for 37. Seems pretty good.

SREFs for DCA Look good https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/srefplumes/

Only reason NAM is the worst is the CRAS model got retired.

GFS has the Christmas Day storm back.

Crazy lightning in the storm again, surrounding the reforming eye.

Pure steam outside. 93% humidity. Temperature 80.2 dp 78.0.