Random Chaos

FV3-Hires 0z looks good at end of run, very similar 500mb to 18z GFS.

I feel like GFS is back!

They are flying today: II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS 1. FLIGHT ONE - TEAL 75 A. 27/0000Z B. AFXXX 15WSE IOP15 C. 26/1830Z D. 25 DROPS APPROXIMATELY 60 NM APART WITHIN AN AREA BOUNDED BY: 30.0N 150.0W, 30.0N 130.0W, 50.0N 130.0W, AND 50.0N 150.0W E. AS HIGH AS POSSIBLE/ 26/2030Z TO 27/0230Z 2. FLIGHT TWO - TEAL 77 A. 27/0000Z B. AFXXX 03WSC IOP15 C. 26/1830Z D. 25 DROPS APPROXIMATELY 60 NM APART WITHIN AN AREA BOUNDED BY: 40.0N 175.0W, 40.0N 150.0W, 20.0N 150.0W, AND 20.0N 175.0W E. AS HIGH AS POSSIBLE/ 26/2030Z TO 27/0230Z And tomorrow: II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS 1. FLIGHT ONE - TEAL 74 A. 28/0000Z B. AFXXX 16WSE IOP16 C. 27/1700Z (CORRECTED) D. 25 DROPS APPROXIMATELY 60 NM APART WITHIN AN AREA BOUNDED BY: 35.0N 125.0W, 35.0N 155.0W, 50.0N 155.0W, AND 50.0N 125.0W E. AS HIGH AS POSSIBLE/ 27/2030Z TO 28/0230Z 2. FLIGHT TWO - TEAL 77 A. 28/0000Z B. AF309 03WSC IOP16 C. 27/1845Z D. 25 DROPS APPROXIMATELY 60 NM APART WITHIN AN AREA BOUNDED BY: 40.0N 165.0W, 40.0N 145.0W, 20.0N 145.0W, AND 20.0N 165.0W E. AS HIGH AS POSSIBLE/ 27/2030Z TO 28/0230Z

Wonder how these new models released today check out? https://finance.yahoo.com/news/nvidia-unveils-ai-models-faster-194409918.html

IAD Soundin

20.0F / 6.1F

Sterling radar showing virga at about 3000 ft beam height now, full circle around the radar.

22.2/6.0 winds gusting to 32mph

Those are some crazy snowfall rates at 11am Sunday on the RGEM.

Seems as modeled to me. Right now I am 38.7F. Most recent NAM calls for 39F. 24 hours ago NAM called for 37. Seems pretty good.

SREFs for DCA Look good https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/srefplumes/

Only reason NAM is the worst is the CRAS model got retired.

GFS has the Christmas Day storm back.

Crazy lightning in the storm again, surrounding the reforming eye.

Pure steam outside. 93% humidity. Temperature 80.2 dp 78.0.

Just heavy rain, not even strong winds. Lots of lightning though.

Definitely feel it should be warned. It’s heading straight for me, should be able to say in 15-20 minutes…

Meso discussion just out on that Tornado:

Fire weather watch just popped: URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 213 PM EST Fri Feb 28 2025 DCZ001-MDZ004>006-008-011-013-014-503>508-VAZ053-054-505-506- 010315- /O.NEW.KLWX.FW.A.0001.250301T1600Z-250302T0100Z/ District of Columbia-Frederick MD-Carroll-Northern Baltimore- Cecil-Southern Baltimore-Prince Georges-Anne Arundel- Northwest Montgomery-Central and Southeast Montgomery- Northwest Howard-Central and Southeast Howard-Northwest Harford- Southeast Harford-Fairfax-Arlington/Falls Church/Alexandria- Western Loudoun-Eastern Loudoun- 213 PM EST Fri Feb 28 2025 ...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR STRONG WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST MARYLAND...THE DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA AND NORTHERN VIRGINIA... The National Weather Service in Baltimore MD/Washington has issued a Fire Weather Watch for strong winds and low relative humidity, which is in effect from Saturday morning through Saturday evening. * TIMING...From Saturday morning through Saturday evening. * WINDS...Northwest 20 to 25 mph with gusts up to 45 mph. * RELATIVE HUMIDITY...As low as 19 percent. * IMPACTS...The combination of dry conditions, low humidity, and strong gusty winds may result in favorable conditions for the rapid spread of fires * FUEL MOISTURE...5 to 10 percent. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Fire Weather Watch means that critical fire weather conditions may occur. Listen for later forecasts and possible Red Flag Warnings. && $$ http://www.weather.gov/lwx/fire

Some people are upset at the NWS firings being discussed here, but the people affected are some of those on this board we always await with glee their forecast comments, some of the red-tagged meteorologists who give us the best analysis of the next winter storm or summer squall line. Whether or not people here got fired in this first wave, they likely knew people that did, and they could be fired in the next wave or the one after that. These are our friends. I hate that politics has come to a weather forum, but it was pushed on us from the outside, not something we chose or desired.

Hit a 50mph wind gust not long ago. Bay bridge is closed due to winds over 55mph. https://bayheadwx.net/weewx/

It’s only a fail if you look at "snow in my back yard" measure. If anything this is a huge sucess for the models. We’ve seen remarkable consistency from 6 days out to 4 days out with only minor track changes, but because of the range minor changes result in significant differences in who gets snow and who doesn’t. We’ve been consistently seeing a southern eastern shore/Ocean City axis with models frequently, but not always extending the precip shield over the DC metro. We’ve consistently seen a coastal bomb cyclone but differences in exactly where the northern turn occurs that impact totals here but not Ocean City. We always sit on a razors edge here for max potential, and the models have been crazy consistent in that there is a storm to within a very small north/south zone at very good temporal range.

That includes today’s snow.

Fixed it for you.

I think I’m going to make a new model and call it the Ji model. It will take the output from all the other major models, average them, then remove all snow in a 25 mile radius around Ji’s house.