dseagull

Nice. Just had the heaviest band move in, with 40 mph wind as we speak. Very thin on radar. I'm impressed. Busted wayyyy high on my thoughts.

We have different years where the expanse of gulf stream Eddies is smaller, but more intense, vice-versa. The overall ocean heat index is difficult to calculate because of many variables, including depth, ambient air temp, flow...etc... This year is nothing special. Reminds me of some fishing conditions I had in the late 80s and early 90s. Very wide spread flow off the GS. The inshore SST is warmer for obvious reasons, but in still skeptical about the overall effect on a truly dynamic storm. I'm genuinely interested in this next storm, despite closing in on 9 inches. I'd love to see a true Miller B this winter, for coastal implications. Long duration events have always been my thing, unless we are talking real tropical systems.

I'm in Barnegat. (Waretown technically) I keep thinking this edge is gonna slide out, but the pivot is dumping on us. We may EEK out a legit 9.5-10 5 inches You are clearly in Beach Haven West. I just got off the parkway from my hunting club. Nassssttyyy

Trending in that direction. I'm looking forward to comparing tonight's globals with last nights globals, and then again with tomorrow nights runs. Wise professor once told me that past, present, future....is simply used knowledge, and many people refuse to be useful.

That was honestly my concern. I capitalized today by threading the needle. (Barnegat NJ) I will be fishing in this lull tomorrow afternoon wednesday morning. Water temps are still 43.5ish near the coast. If I run 90 miles for bottom fish at the Wilmington Canyon, I still have 63 SST. That's why we are still crushing tuna. Unless we get a bomb or a similar slider, I get screwed .... and just have to take the dogs up to susquehanna to hunt instead. Lol. Next one is for you. I think she over performs, despite being a progressive track at the moment.

"One system carving out a path for another," sydrome?

Beautiful to have something to track immediate after this system exits.

Peaks of sun in Barnegat NJ, back end is marching to the coast FAST. Just about over. Quick 4 inch storm, and watching temps slide with the DP

Also, NWS Mt Holly did amazingly well with conservative forecasts. Kudos.

Exactly. While people in NYC and LI are calling this a bust for not delivering, it may be argued that it is a bust high for people in Tom's River and further South. This was always a southern storm until late in the game, and many people on the Jersey Shore are busting high, (if you remove extreme runs from the past 18-24 hours.) It is all perspective. Nice little nusaince event until you go south of Little Egg in NJ

Barnegat, NJ. 1240. 30.4/33. Light/mod snow. Lull in the wind, 12@ 345 NNW. Gusts to 24 @10m on the bay. 3.7" on the board. Looks like we may get one more band before it wraps up at 1430

Thanks for sharing. Totals are definitely busting low even further south. I'm curious to see where the axis of max accumulated snow sets up. just east of hammonton, NJ is looking prime for jackpot. Maybe a line from Millville to New Gretna.

I did a poor job articulating myself. Let me try again. It outperformed and signaled at something that most models lost entirely for a period of time. Consistency is a valuable asset for any model. I'm not lauding the performance of the GFS, I'm simply giving credit where it is due. I'd like to look into the parameters once this system exits. Something to learn from. OBS - 31/31 Barnegat NJ. Light/mod SN. Winds starting to howl N @ 20-25 G to 35. 2.6" on the board. Still expecting less than 5", but the roads have gone to crud quickly. Going to make bird hunting impossible today, unless it lets up soon here on the Northern Fringe.

I'd go with the GFS for the 7th, but let's get past this threat and revisit the models when this thing exits the N. Maritimes. 50 miles south, and you would be cashing in. When we are talking deviations of less than 100 miles, it's all just noise. The GFS nailed this storm (besides QPF), when all others were out to lunch. Gotta give credit where it is due.

Going to school nowadays is as rare as snow days used to be.

31.5/31. Barnegat, NJ. Mod snow. About 1.2 inches on grass, roads just caved. Rt. 9 covered and getting slick fast. Not expecting too much, but this freeze tonight is going to make this stuff a nightmare for roads.

33.4/30, Barnegat, NJ....rain flipped to moderate snow 25 minutes ago, and grass and car tops are quickly covered. Dog is having a blast. The cutoff is going to be a super tight gradient on this one. I have low expectations for this type of setup, but someone will take a crack at 10 inches. I'm making the call 4-5 here with low ratios.

I may have spoken too soon. I just went to let my German shorthair out for his morning romp, and it must have just started thumping, and collecting on the grass very quickly. Cars are covered within 10 minutes. 33/30

Barnegat, NJ on the bay. 35/30 Rain/snow, flipping to to snow. Going to be a very sharp cutoff. I've seen this kind of storm play out before. Going to be tough to break 4 or 5 inches in this scenario.

Played with some tautog before heading back in the 3 mile line and puting a 2 man limit of stripers together really fast. Love keeping the boat in late for these type of warm winter days. Will do the seabass and cod spiel when the boat goes back in March.

Thanks. To my failing memory, this setup just doesnt work too well for us unless we thread the needle, but when it does, we put up some numbers. Appreciate the feedback.

43.8/35. Dropping like a stone. About 3 degrees in last half hour.

Will take it, just interested if warm air will be a problem on immediate coast if this wraps up and in a bit. I had around 43 water temp when fishing 6 miles SE of Barnegat Inlet today.

46.2/38 on the bay in Barnegat, NJ. Wind steady at around 10 knots, gusts picking up to 15-20. 12 degree drop in 85 minutes now. Noticeably drier air coming in fast with the NW wind. Had 43.7 water temp 6 miles SE of BI today while fishing.

Barnegat, NJ on the water. 47.2/41. Temp dropped 10 degrees in 75 minutes. Wind went NW at 12, and getting some gusts of clean NW air picking up. We are due for a nice 6+ event. Bird hunting should be interesting tomorrow.