Jump to content

dseagull

NO ACCESS TO PR/OT
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    544

  • Joined

 Content Type 

Everything posted by dseagull

  1. dseagull
    Duration under gradient. Thankfully, neap tides. Its bad, but ive been here for many decades, my entire life. I still havd visual tide guages from 40 years ago. Id love to blame my areas back bay flooding on sea level rise, but thats not the case. There have been tremendous man-made changes to the inlet and surrounding areas that are almost certainly responsible. To each their own.
  2. dseagull
    It's been a F'n day.... will share pictures tomorrow of what really happened on Barnegat Bay. It was a good one....
  3. dseagull
    And like I thought, boats are breaking free and sinking. This storm may not break any records or be remembered for long, but a significant amount of damage was done, considering tens of thousands of boats were still in the water.
  4. dseagull
    Ill fix my post.... I understand its a gradient squeeze. Trust me, I do. Apologies, im about to watch many neighborhoods get exceptionally wet here, as this system doesnt necessarily deepen, but the net results worsen. If I didnt look at the surface map you posted, id describe an incredibly different situation.
  5. dseagull
    I am a bit of a radiohead. I have 3 scanners going with trunked talk groups on custom settings. All of ocean county towns have too many calls for me to keep up with. Trees falling and lines arching are the most frequent. This thing is NOT bombing out (thanks, Omega,) but the net results of the gradient squeeze are impressive. Updated to reflect reality of surface maps, dated or not.
  6. dseagull
    VID_20251012_210615.mp4
  7. dseagull
    Low tide, video above.
  8. dseagull
    VID_20251012_211458.mp4
  9. dseagull
    Ill make the claim now.... this is going to overperform on the mainland of barnegat bay. We have very strong sustained winds with frequent gusts over 50 now. The water began rising before low tide was reached, and its going to be a long night ahead until the 4AM high tide. Many boats will likely succumb to this storm, sadly... Then, my work begins. Brutal.
  10. dseagull
    Of course I do, and tog into January. But im more or less off the water for both jobs from mid January until mid March.
  11. dseagull
    Yup, thats a large part of it. In any case, a low to mid range moderate event would be a blessing for those of us on the water. One less headache to deal with. Im ready for winter and my 2 months off of work.
  12. dseagull
    Winds have actually relaxed somewhat here. I expected a higher push than we have recieved for this approaching high tide. Beginning to think that this storm may not break the 2.67 we received on August 21st, when Erin passed by farrrrr offshore.
  13. dseagull
    Thanks. Im directly behind Barnegat Inlet in waretown, on the Bayfront. The last squall that came through dropped heavy rain and we had several gusts over 45. I imagine Harvey Cedars highest gust may increase shortly. Somebody certainly will have 60-65 soon. The water level chart is what most of us on the water will have our eyes glued to over the next 36 hours.
  14. dseagull
    They are "professionals," but I still try to keep people like this at arm's length. Hey, it's a free country, but I cant promise my response will be timely if they find themselves in a precarious/dangerous situation.
  15. dseagull
    3 hours til high tide on my part of barnegat bay. Lower roads are already all caving quickly. This may overperform. Im getting consistent gusts to 45 now in this band. If this intensity is consistent until tomorrow's high around 4PM, we may have significant flooding damage in the 2nd flood zone tier for our town. This would affect nearly 400 homes that were not raised after Sandy.
  16. dseagull
    We definitely had some good wind for a bit. For reference, im exactly 4.56 miles as the crow flies across the bay. So far, tidal departures not very impressive. Quarter moon REALLY helps us. Will post conditions reports shortly after breakfast. Gotta beat the rain for a long dog walk. Next high tide here, 1515.
  17. dseagull
    Fear porn sells.
  18. dseagull
    NWS has dialed back my predicted coastal flooding. Slowly, we look to be headed from major to moderate instead. Living on the water, 4-8 inches can mean the difference between insane amounts of water damage or just a PIA cleanup.
  19. dseagull
    Wind is slowly starting to pick up a bit. Strong enough for spray to ruin my sandwich on my way across the bay, but I simply dont see the Major flood criteria being achieved as forecast. Im just not buying that this will be 8/10th of a foot less than Sandy. I imagine they will slowly walk it down.
  20. dseagull
    It really has risen to that level of stupidity. People are slowly waking up to it, at least.
  21. dseagull
    Still a fairly nice day on the water. A little chop 15-20kt , but otherwise a beautiful fall morning. 20251011_104915.mp4
  22. dseagull
    I suggest you read the actual legislation, prior to what will soon become common knowledge. SOE declarations are an avenue for misappropriation of funds, and this has only emboldened those in power to declare them more frequently. While they absolutely do open the doors for federal funding, they simultaneously allow for interstate funding to be reallocated. It's not what you may believe it is. It occurs across party lines.
  23. dseagull
    The "first call" hype machine is just a byproduct of social media and sensationalism in the modern era. While those who understand the complexity of forecasting, grasp how quickly model runs change... The general public does not. The general public just reads worst case scenarios on social media. Tides are not running high, most boats are still in the water, and this is likely going to be a glancing early season blow. Phone has been ringing off the hook about "storm prep." My answer as always: put some extra lines on, put fenders out as necessary, and keep up to date on any changes.
  24. dseagull
    Yea, I hear ya. A good place to check real time tide guages and overlay them against predicted tides is on the USGS sites. Every location, obviously will be different based on fetch, stage of tide, orientation, etc... But, ill tell ya this... water levels in the back of barnegat bay are actually running slightly lower right now. Im actually getting ready to head out on the water for work now. Until late last night, we hadn't yet had any easterly flow since the previous NE blow. Infact, we has northwesterlies and SW. Nevertheless, spring tides only generally exacerbate the tidal flooding 10-15 percent. That 10-15 percent can make all the difference in the world though with a long duration easterly blow, especially with a strong or stalled system inside of the benchmark. Hoping we get more of a scraper, as im not necessarily enthusiastic about working vessel salvages 24/7 during and after the storm. Still approximately 60-70 percent of vessels are in the water for the fall run/locals summer. Towards the end of the season, bilge pumps and batteries on ignored vessels are often not working. Hope you have a nice day. It is chilly, but gorgeous this morning. At least we have something local and interesting to track. Ill post many pictures as the storm unfolds.
  25. dseagull
    We are now 4 days off of a moon, and will ne even further as we approach neap tides.
×
×
  • Create New...