dseagull

We definitely had some good wind for a bit. For reference, im exactly 4.56 miles as the crow flies across the bay. So far, tidal departures not very impressive. Quarter moon REALLY helps us. Will post conditions reports shortly after breakfast. Gotta beat the rain for a long dog walk. Next high tide here, 1515.

Fear porn sells.

NWS has dialed back my predicted coastal flooding. Slowly, we look to be headed from major to moderate instead. Living on the water, 4-8 inches can mean the difference between insane amounts of water damage or just a PIA cleanup.

Wind is slowly starting to pick up a bit. Strong enough for spray to ruin my sandwich on my way across the bay, but I simply dont see the Major flood criteria being achieved as forecast. Im just not buying that this will be 8/10th of a foot less than Sandy. I imagine they will slowly walk it down.

It really has risen to that level of stupidity. People are slowly waking up to it, at least.

Still a fairly nice day on the water. A little chop 15-20kt , but otherwise a beautiful fall morning. 20251011_104915.mp4

I suggest you read the actual legislation, prior to what will soon become common knowledge. SOE declarations are an avenue for misappropriation of funds, and this has only emboldened those in power to declare them more frequently. While they absolutely do open the doors for federal funding, they simultaneously allow for interstate funding to be reallocated. It's not what you may believe it is. It occurs across party lines.

The "first call" hype machine is just a byproduct of social media and sensationalism in the modern era. While those who understand the complexity of forecasting, grasp how quickly model runs change... The general public does not. The general public just reads worst case scenarios on social media. Tides are not running high, most boats are still in the water, and this is likely going to be a glancing early season blow. Phone has been ringing off the hook about "storm prep." My answer as always: put some extra lines on, put fenders out as necessary, and keep up to date on any changes.

Yea, I hear ya. A good place to check real time tide guages and overlay them against predicted tides is on the USGS sites. Every location, obviously will be different based on fetch, stage of tide, orientation, etc... But, ill tell ya this... water levels in the back of barnegat bay are actually running slightly lower right now. Im actually getting ready to head out on the water for work now. Until late last night, we hadn't yet had any easterly flow since the previous NE blow. Infact, we has northwesterlies and SW. Nevertheless, spring tides only generally exacerbate the tidal flooding 10-15 percent. That 10-15 percent can make all the difference in the world though with a long duration easterly blow, especially with a strong or stalled system inside of the benchmark. Hoping we get more of a scraper, as im not necessarily enthusiastic about working vessel salvages 24/7 during and after the storm. Still approximately 60-70 percent of vessels are in the water for the fall run/locals summer. Towards the end of the season, bilge pumps and batteries on ignored vessels are often not working. Hope you have a nice day. It is chilly, but gorgeous this morning. At least we have something local and interesting to track. Ill post many pictures as the storm unfolds.

We are now 4 days off of a moon, and will ne even further as we approach neap tides.

I run charters from barnegat. Been doing so for almost 4 decades. It's cyclical, for sure.

Time will certainly tell, with regard to AI integration. Part of me is fearful that it will become "too good," eliminating the mystery and continuation of scientific analysis in forecasting. Maybe another thread for this topic. I'm fascinated by the current forecast evolution of this particular complex setup. This week will probably take the gold medal for most dynamic tropical forecast (regardless of land interaction,) in perhaps the past 2 seasons. Fujiwara is a thread the needle interaction with actual tropical core systems. Attempting to learn as much as I can over the next 72+ hours. This was worth the wait.

I have mixed opinions on the NHC utilizing DeepMind during the infancy of the AI revolution. It should absolutely be used as a tool, but Im not sure we are at the point where it should be used as a weighted metric in forecast discussions with the public. Model fatigue is a very real thing.

I began editing photos i took while on the ground for work, in the wake of Katrina. While doing so, I came to the conclusion that I wouldn't be posting "forum-friendly" photos of a natural disaster, but rather a humanitarian disaster, that humans were 90% responsible for. I lost my desire to do a thorough post on the matter, but still wanted to share how despicable the preparation, response, and cleanup efforts were by most agencies and parties. This includes local (mostly,) state, and federal (also despicable) efforts. I still have nightmares from stepping into the aftermath, as I wasn't fully mature at that age (even though I was well into adulthood.) The best of humanity was not present for much of the time I had any involvement in the immediate time following the storm. Having said that, it did eventually blossom, once the political finger-pointing and lawlessness subsided. It was the beginning of heavy propaganda and social media. We have only witnessed more depravity since then. Perhaps the most frightening aspect of Katrina, is that (in my opinion,) New Orleans and surrounding areas are no better prepared for a similar storm. In many ways, I believe the residents are even less prepared. Agencies certainly are. That makes me truly sad. To any others who witnessed the storm's aftermath, first hand... I know you are well aware of the human tragedy that took place...and the BS... and the birth of terrible weather-related media. God, help us prepare and react more efficiently and effectively in the future.

Except when the rain/snow line is 5 miles to the north and its puking 3-4 inch/hr rates north of that line. You wont complain, but rather cry. Lol

You will never convince cultists of anything, despite providing data and well-rounded and unbiased observations. I admire your tenacity, in terms of using factual and logical arguments in questioning the absurdities within the climate catastrophe narrative. Good luck... you are debating science with the same folks that decided that there are an untold number of genders. Good grief... Geological timescale is something that weak-minded individuals have difficulty with. "The thirst for answers" will often create delusional mob mentality.

"Wrongness?" I love lurking on this thread for nonsensical crud like this. I hope you were highly intoxicated when you posted this. (And just incase you are mentally retarded, my sincere apologies. I just assumed you were of sound mind.)

Check again. Lol

Nothing new about it. The only thing that is relatively new is constant "in your face" media and social media. Research the 1963 pine barrens fires. Research many of the other seasons with massive fires. The recent fire down here just has everyone on edge, and social media won't drop it. When you have droughts (1961-1966, 1998-2002, as examples,) all it takes is one idiot with a discarded cigarette, one arsonist, or one lightning strike as a catalyst for major fires. Add in some wind, and voila. Social media sometimes makes things seem unprecedented.... Don't fall for the nonsense. This is nothing new. Unfortunately, the new warning systems often act as alerts for arsonists to go out and wreak havoc (as mentioned in multiple state agency documents.)

Its about time to comb through some historical data and current teleconnections to see what the spring transition season may hold in store for us. Spring coastals are more impactful for shore communities than most pay attention to. Cold and rainy springs (with wind on weekends) have an economic impact that goes unrecognized unless you live here or work in part of the economy that depends on "good-weather" weekends leading up to summer. Another side hustle of mine is boat hauling to and from ramps and yards. Despite the cold winter, I already have plenty of calls from folks looking to schedule launching their boats. They always ask what i think would be the best day. My response is usually, "i don't have a crystal ball for a month out, but if you like to gamble, it's a fun game." Not much snow down here on barnegat bay, and sadly I'm getting accustomed to the less snowy winters. Would have loved 1 big KU event, but I'm not sure I'll be around for another 10-15 year snowy pattern again during my lifetime. The cold didn't seem particularly brutal to me this year, but the duration was absolutely recognizable. Hunting was stellar, especially with the drought. Now im ready for my nine months of 24/7 work... and thunderstorms. It was April 1, 2023 when I had to rescue a stranded vessel with two crew under a tornado warning, which wound up only producing quarter size hail and some gusts to 65 in my exact location. When you basically live on the water all summer, lightning begins to fascinate and scare the chit out of you at the same time. I'm looking forward to getting back to my "office."

Oh, its doing LOTS OF TUGGING alright. Lmao

The last good year for winter flounder here was quite a fluke (no pun intended.) It was march of 2009. Very strange, as all fish were in their traditional spots, and they were all tanks 2lbs and over. Chumming while anchored wasn't even necessary, but i did it anyway with my corn and clam secret recipie. I even used my plunger attached to a long pole (flounder pounder) to stir up the bottom. When i tell you that we caught hundreds each day for two weeks, its not an exaggeration. Very weird, like they showed up just so I could show people what it used to be like. Didn't matter if you used mussel pieces or blood worms or sand worms. It was like going back to the 70s. Like you, I now encounter them on wrecks while targeting seabass in the spring and summer. They arent on our nearshore snags either. This is all 120-180' plus on the 20 and 30 line. Hundreds of theories on what changed their migration pattern, but we may never know. I grew up setting fyke nets. Overfishing doesn't seem to be the culprit responsible for their disappearance in the estuaries, though I'm sure it didnt help. My bride purchased a new trolling motor (spot lock) for my personal boat. As much as I dislike the fact that anyone can just go buy one and quickly target tog, seabass, etc... with very little skill.... I am getting too old to be double anchoring regularly. Took me many decades to master a skill that was essential, only to watch spot lock appear and give anyone an edge. Needless to say, ill be out catching blackfish this spring after I'm tired of playing with the early resident stripers beginning in two weeks. As soon as fluke begins, I'll be drifting the bay while on my work boat everyday. Bluefin tuna has been off the charts in close in recent years, so that will take the place of everything for awhile... then weakfish will come after that. Im blessed to have such a great backyard. Back to spending 12-16 hours a day outside. I'll never fully retire, as what I do now is not work to me.

Im patient. What i would like to avoid is late winter/early spring coastals with rain. Good for nothing in my life. I'm a hige fan of drought conditions during my work season.

As promised.... If it didn't come back by 12z today, I'd lead the charge off the cliff. Adios, storm. Bring on spring. Work boats will be dropped back into the water slowly beginning next week, as seasonal maintenance is done. Personal boats will be in by the ides of March. Goodbye underarmor, winter coats, gloves, and scotch. Hello shorts, flip flops, beautiful scenery, and beer. Maybe next year

Sure am. Fully expect a coastal scraper to materialize. Solid 2-4 NYC, 3-6 Long Island, Coastal NJ 2-6 from Asbury to IBSP. 4-8 from IBSP to ACY, 6-10 from ACY to Cape May. Could see more, could see less. Always worth tracking something that actually exists to track.