dseagull

Finally beginning to see some rates compensate for the marginal temp layers and strong winds here on barnegat bay. Didnt anticipate staying awake long enough to watch it happen, but I wanted to see where the deform band was going to set up to the west. Also embracing an extra day off from my daily winter gig. Final Thoughts : I've seen plenty of inside/on/outside benchmark systems roll through over the years. This is an interesting one, that will warrant plenty of post-storm analysis from mets that know farrrr more than my anecdotal-mind is capable of understanding. Ill spare everyone my rant about modern "modelology," but would hope to see a moderator consider opening a thread to discuss the GFS performance for the current system. The "lock" was early, persistent, and unwavering. I like to give credit where it is due, especially when the signal was picked up at an impressive lead time. I hope everyone has a great night, stays safe, and has an opportunity to put work aside to enjoy the important things tomorrow. Be well.

Battery Park for the win. Hopefully they get a decent period of subsequent action. Boom. Very cool.

My buddy's kid is in town from Houston for an interview up in NYC on Wednesday. He started bitching about a headache and coming down with a bug before his big interview. Had to reassure him with my station barometer that we just watched pressure fall through the floor since breakfast.

I can assure you that Im not "tripping." I don't discount your measurements, as I have several employees near one of my job sites near north ocean city. They are reporting nearly a foot as well, near you. I report what I have, and others have in my specific area. Dynamic storms tend to perform this way.

Come on, Santa... use your powers.

I hear ya, this will be a localized jackpot storm. Again (as Ive stated numerous times,) I am not downplaying the severity or intensity of the storm. I will absolutely stand by my "total storm accumulation" forecast of under a foot for the Forked River to Manahawkin area of coastal Barnegat Bay. I can confidently assess that nearly a foot has fallen already. However, well under 6 inches has accumulated thus far. Between the temperature profile and winds, I see no feasible way for such a wet paste to amount to much in the way of accumulation. Power outages and other impacts are stacking up, but these are primarily wind related. Absolutely incredible storm to track, but very borderline MECS for immediate coastal areas in terms of accumulation. Our January storm, and subsequent glacial freeze.... will be what most remember this winter for. Enjoy the storm.

We shall see... In any case, all rapidly intensifying lows are a treat for us to track (any time of year, here...) We live in a pretty special location, in terms of multiple bordering micro-climates. If you are hoping for those projected totals, ill hope along with you, as I walk my dog one last time for the evening. From a meteorological and observational perspective, I would caution against expecting more than 12".... If you are going to live-track the storm throughout the night, I would suggest taking many meso model screenshots, which you can analyze again post storm. This simple activity, coupled with observations, is extremely useful in both scoring model output, and learning your local climo in various setups. Cheers.

Struggling to keep anything more than thst up here in Waretown and Forked River, as well. We will hopefully see a long duration high dbz band pivot near (or over us) overnight, but Im simply not seeing enough observational temp crash to help us catch up to projected totals. For me, snow totals mean far less than the overall coastal impacts... but I like to call things as I see them. I would consider double digits a win, at this juncture. Hope we both get to experience some true blizzard conditions, regardless of overall snowfall accumulation.

I think you guys up north (NYC, and points East,) may do much better than those of us along coastal Ocean County, NJ. We need temps to drop soon in order to achieve the currently projected totals. This is not a post designed to troll or downplay the storm. Im fully aware of the dynamics involved, and what may lay ahead for those of us down here, but I'm using quite a few decades of life on the water here to make my call. As soon as rates fall, im watching our slush compress and melt away into a saturated and fairly warm surface, losing half of what we gain with each higher-rate band. Could absolutely see points North of Point Pleasant doing better, but I believe we will struggle to pull off more than 8-12 down here in Forked River and Waretown. Not screaming, "bust," but preparing others for what looks fairly likely at this point. I am in no way tossing NWS forecasts, but using real-time observations to predict that more southern coastal areas may see a walk-back in total accumulation. The system is still incredibly enjoyable to track and experience, and I would love to eat crow. To those in the jackpot zones, soak it up! ...and post some pictures. Cheers.

Bayfront Waretown. Looking forward to enjoying it. First two days off in almost a month. Hope you get to enjoy as well.

Wind just ramped up 10 minutes ago on barnegat bay. Dumping good now with heavy paste.

And just like that, roads caved barnegat bay

Down to 33.1 on barnegat bay. All non-pavement surfaces and ground are covered, ans things are ramping up.

Down to 34 on Barnegat Bay, and it instantly flipped to moderate snow. Wind on the water is SLOWLY picking up. Dont expect any accumulation until dusk down here. Im going slightly lower than Mt. Holly's 18-24 (which was already adjusted downward from HISTORIC 24-28, to MAJOR 18-24.) I will stick with 10-16, not that accumulation matters much in terms of watching this storm evolve and bomb out. Enjoy, all.

38.6 , Moderate Rain, Barnegat Light Winds slowly picking up. If it weren't for the rain, id be working on the boat in seasonable temps. Should see a flip to snow by 1545

By 1430, you're dumping.

We shall see. GFS was consistent for days. Unchanged, largely. As always, snow totals are always the focus... which has always fascinated me. This will be a fairly historic blizzard for more, if for no other reason than the speed of pressure drop and potency of the low. This is a textbook storm, and will be referenced for years to come. I see zero evidence that this will be a region wide bust.

Both Mt. Holly and Upton wholeheartedly disagree with your take, but we shall see. I dont agree with some of the totals (region wide,) but there will certainly be some major jackpot areas over 2'.

Could very well see someone between CT and Monmouth crack 3', if a persistent band sets up on the pivot. Going to be a very interesting final snow map. A lot of immediately coastal NJ may see totals (if they can be accurately guaged,) a bit on the lower side. Winds of this strength tend to compact snow depth during warmer snowfall. However, it also leads to some wild drifting. We will know in about 24 hours. Fun to watch.

Will always be some who are impacted during travel. Unavoidable. This may be one of the VERY FEW benefits of a world engulfed by social media, though. Id be very surprised if anyone on the east coast hasnt been bombarded by blizzard-talk. I have relatives from both Oklahoma and Texas calling and asking me about the storm.

Sherrill began repeated stating "stay off the roads" yesterday. Technically, there is no legislation in the state of NJ to outright ban travel, as was attempted during the covid crud. Most people will head warnings, as the term "blizzard" has been in everyone's life for nearly 24 hours now. Regardless of warnings, youll always have a certain percentage of folks that will attempt to travel. Luckily, Sunday afternoon and night is not a common heavy-traffic period.

NYC 9.5" LGA 12.5" ISP 16.0" JFK 13.25" EWR 11.75"

The consistency from run to run with the GFS is rare beyond words, especially at this lead time. If it folds, it is seriously time to discuss discontinuing funding for the model and surrounding program.

Climo, should always remain heavily weighted when in a sub-optimal setup... as you point out. Still, enjoyable to track. Offers an opportunity to find biases in models, year over year. Wouldn't surprise me to see decent pattern-changing coastal as winter winds down, but didn't expect to see it so soon.

Crazy uncle needs a straight jacket. That is some wild stuff that would set records. If it's going to be a complete miss, please let it verify. One for the ages.