dseagull

Crazy uncle needs a straight jacket. That is some wild stuff that would set records. If it's going to be a complete miss, please let it verify. One for the ages.

Hahahah. A 968 scooting East at light speed. This doesnt make sense.

Yea, minus the upstream kicker. Im not sold on any of this if a run shows inconsistencies in placement. Let the Euro run, then stick a fork in it...

...because it's showing an unrealistic 977 just off Buxton. It's trash. And it actually gives us some hope.

Agree... which is why it doesn't really make sense. Have to look at individual members and attempt to see which output jives. This is ugly.

500 doesnt really align well with that output. Seems disjointed. I guess the upstream kicker means business. Strange evolution.

Having flashbacks to 2010 (despite it being late January) ... I remember it well. Oddly enough, Im not wishcasting for anything near that sort of evolution. My work boats and equipment are currently frozen in place, which is costing me untold thousands of dollars each day, regardless of wintry precipitation. This is a "relatively rare" setup. We just recieved a good storm, and everyone has a decent snowpack in this forum. It has been years since we have seen this type of cold, following a SECS... Generally speaking, we cash in during relaxation of a similar patern. Being a Nina year, this is intriguing. Hope everyone has a moment to sit back and take this in... ...If we do wind up seeing a cold and dry 2 weeks ahead, it will be interesting to find an overal analog year that makes sense of if all.

12z tomorrow. See y'all then. Have to fix the hydraulic lines on all of my machines. Hope the next storm is powder... screw the weight of ice.

Piss and moan to me first... I'll take a crack at where the trend may verify. Looking at the very few occlusions that occur from Augusta, GA to Charleston, SC... Id say the digging was exaggerated. The kicker doesnt seem too "forwardly" progressive... Timing... could be a thread-the-needle outcome. Those counting this out... premature.

If a weather weenies mental health crisis were to occur with 00z or 12z runs, I hope the victim also has a chiropractor. The whiplash could be deadly...(AKA 2010)

Traditionally, this is where you would want the models losing the storm. Not sure how well we can forecast the upstream kicker yet. The primary, on the other hand, really looks like it winds up wayyyy too far into the deep south. Still not buying it. By 12z tomorrow, we can either throw in the towel or get ready to throw snow.

If 06z Euro brings it NW, you're going to see the mother of all Bi-Polar mood swings on here.

Unlikely for this to offer a good surprise for the forum, but I'd wait to see if the energy from the kicker winds up more strung out and further WNW. Very curious to see the 500mb depictions at 12z and 00z. Im not buying the low closing off down in Georgia. Regardless, fun one to track.

Dont get me wrong, as Im on Barnegat Bay... But id like to see a region-wide blockbuster event. We cashed out in 2018 and 2022, on two bombs that left NYC feeling robbed of potential.

100-125 miles NW, and its game on. Plenty of time. Looking forward to recon data being ingested into models.

00z tonight could very well bring it back. We know this story. Regardless of outcome, the low is going to absolutely bomb.

5.5 days

Snowpack will help. Radiational cooling on cloudless nights will help. Low ceiling cloud cover will work against the city though. I don't envy those who attempt to figure out urban heat outputs. Wayyy too dynamic. In any case, this is a winter-lover's paradise thd next 10 days or more.

Would be an absolute KU bomb. Show this to me Wednesday night and I'll take the bait.

As depicted, the next two weeks would be pretty memorable. Will be plenty of tracking ahead, but will begin taking runs seriously only if they are all onboard come Wednesday afternoon.

Haven't chimed in on this one much until now. While total snowfall depths are often the hot topic of debate, this storm (in our subforum,) is going to be known for something entirely different near the city and coastal plains. Mixing, even over to a brief light rain or snizzle, is only going to make the freeze and frozen concrete worse. The crashing reinforcement of cold air on Monday is going to absolutely be the headline. Id much rather have to deal with 12-18 inches of powder than what we are likely going to have to deal with. You cant shovel chunks of frozen snow in 10-20 degree temps. Been there, done that. This storm is going to delay many construction projects.

Headlines and click bait sell... nothing is genuine in "journalism" anymore.

By the time all is said amd done, this storm will mostly be remembered for the areas that recieve ice, and the following arctic air. Sure doesnt look like the blockbuster metropolis snowstorm we were hoping would thread the needle. Im enjoying watching the evolution of model outputs, particularly the AI versions. We have a longgggg way to go with AI models, and without sampling, its evident that solutions will likely not verify at a higher level than traditional models.

If the north trend stops or shifts back south 50 miles, I agree with you. Toms river would do OK. Could very well see the warm nose come to fruition, though... and that would be pretty brutal.

Going to be a fun couple days to see which models handle the phase best. Regardless of the outcome, Im just stoked to have a setup like this to track again. Its been a minute....