dseagull

D Its the ICON. Focus on the 00z and and 12z Euro right now. Then watch to see where the GFS and Euro AI (ugh...AI) split the difference. It's 4 days off. I'm not looking at the damn ICON or UKIE. Garbage in, garbage OUT! It's always going to be models following suit until the data input is devoid of the current system which has not yet left the area. It's always been that way. That's why we get the back and forth with spacing.

Everyone will get pulled back in by 00z or 12z Euro. Lol. It's coming... that brutal "pull you back in" model flip.

Having said all that, I'll be waiting for the 00z models tonight. I work 24/7 from the end of March until mid January. This is my downtime season. I hunt with my dog and travel a bit. And it's the only time I can enjoy a cocktail or two without worrying about an on water rescue or tow. Praying for a good storm to wrap this frustrating winter up.

Great points. Jan 28 into 29, 2022... Grazer I suppose... wound up with 18.3 on barnegat bay. Quick hitter. Day before, had 3-5 forcast.

Lots of different folks here... who share a similar love for weather of all sorts... A link to one of my favorite storm coverage on TWC back in 96.

Its emotional investment. Lol. And I'm not making fun of it. It's like reading a familiar bedtime story. As long as folks realize that it's for entertainment and as a hobby, rather than get lost in it, it's actually pretty darn funny. And the roller coaster is part of the rush for many. The irony is that many folks lose so much sleep leading up to a big threat, that they are totally smoked when a big storm verifies and delivers the goods. I get it... i grew up anxiously waiting for radio updates, then spent hundreds of hours in the early weather channel days waiting for my local on the 8s to update. (I still watch the 96 blizzard videos from TWC on YouTube, with the music bringing me right back... Some of my fondest memories are from the lead-up... more so than the actual storms. Holds true today. I'm an unapologetic weather weenie, and will be until the day I die.

Like asking an alcoholic to take a week off drinking.

Windshield wiper. Back tomorrow at 12z with the goods.

It will wind up being one of those model scenarios where the Euro appears to be sadistically teasing weenies until a day of lead time.

Count your blessings. I got about a half hour of wet slop when on the water a bit ago down here.

Light snow and sleet, soon changing to rain in barnegat inlet.

Running drills right now off barnegat. Little snotty, but still fun.

Good points. It all hinges on CG at battery park having enough room at the docks for me to leave the boat and venture into the city.

Im routing for you city folks on this one. I've never been to the city with big snow on the ground, and have an opportunity to do some training in New York harbor on Saturday with some coworkers. Would be nice to see the city with a foot of snow blanketing the ground.

Have you moved locations? 14/15 was the most severe-col winter i remember with long duration sub freezing since the 80s. I was doing emergency crawlspace pipe repairs for many of my neighbors. People were driving vehicles all over barnegat bay.

Definitely the beginning of a pattern (at least for this part of the season.) I want to see what happens after the cutter materializes.

Kind of. Depends on the audience. 2001 was one of the first "mass hype busts" of that caliber. It literally created the first local media weather memes, or was at least foreshadowing of memes. More recent busts are different, for a lot of reasons in this strange time we live in. Social media is destroying so much. I think most of us would give up all tech advances to return to yesteryear. Net loss of tech and communication. Net gain in regard to everything else. Im not sure forecasting advancements have lead to more preparedness or even accuracy. ...at least not from the perspective of the general public.

Isnt there an automatic 10 day ban for bringing up that bust? Lol

Won't argue with you on that stance. I share it. ...but I'm definitely interested in seeing how it evolves. Isnt like we have the ability to ignore it either way. What it has done for many areas of daily life already is amazing. Unfortunately, the negatives clearly outweigh the positives when influenced by bad actors.

I'm enthusiastic about verification scores, considering it's recent introduction. Even we wind up with broken hearts due to an AI model win, it's a longterm win for forecasting if it can continue to perform on spacial and temporal regularity. Very interesting to enter the wild west of modern forecasting.

Appreciate it. Looking into updates versus large bias failures for the fun of it.

Do you have any recent examples where most of the globals were focused on fairly similar results simultaneously, yet the "EURO'S tucked bias" you mention was shown to be present?

Sign me up with the 28 jackpot

How many of us? Depends on if there's a mass extinction event among weenies when the models break hearts and minds for the 19th/20th storm. Should probably shut down all rooftops and bridges to be safe.

I know better than to get my hopes up for this one. Always wanted to hunt in a blizzard with the dog. Hmmmm