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dseagull

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  1. dseagull
    VID_20251012_210615.mp4
  2. dseagull
    Low tide, video above.
  3. dseagull
    VID_20251012_211458.mp4
  4. dseagull
    Ill make the claim now.... this is going to overperform on the mainland of barnegat bay. We have very strong sustained winds with frequent gusts over 50 now. The water began rising before low tide was reached, and its going to be a long night ahead until the 4AM high tide. Many boats will likely succumb to this storm, sadly... Then, my work begins. Brutal.
  5. dseagull
    Of course I do, and tog into January. But im more or less off the water for both jobs from mid January until mid March.
  6. dseagull
    Yup, thats a large part of it. In any case, a low to mid range moderate event would be a blessing for those of us on the water. One less headache to deal with. Im ready for winter and my 2 months off of work.
  7. dseagull
    Winds have actually relaxed somewhat here. I expected a higher push than we have recieved for this approaching high tide. Beginning to think that this storm may not break the 2.67 we received on August 21st, when Erin passed by farrrrr offshore.
  8. dseagull
    Thanks. Im directly behind Barnegat Inlet in waretown, on the Bayfront. The last squall that came through dropped heavy rain and we had several gusts over 45. I imagine Harvey Cedars highest gust may increase shortly. Somebody certainly will have 60-65 soon. The water level chart is what most of us on the water will have our eyes glued to over the next 36 hours.
  9. dseagull
    They are "professionals," but I still try to keep people like this at arm's length. Hey, it's a free country, but I cant promise my response will be timely if they find themselves in a precarious/dangerous situation.
  10. dseagull
    3 hours til high tide on my part of barnegat bay. Lower roads are already all caving quickly. This may overperform. Im getting consistent gusts to 45 now in this band. If this intensity is consistent until tomorrow's high around 4PM, we may have significant flooding damage in the 2nd flood zone tier for our town. This would affect nearly 400 homes that were not raised after Sandy.
  11. dseagull
    We definitely had some good wind for a bit. For reference, im exactly 4.56 miles as the crow flies across the bay. So far, tidal departures not very impressive. Quarter moon REALLY helps us. Will post conditions reports shortly after breakfast. Gotta beat the rain for a long dog walk. Next high tide here, 1515.
  12. dseagull
    Fear porn sells.
  13. dseagull
    NWS has dialed back my predicted coastal flooding. Slowly, we look to be headed from major to moderate instead. Living on the water, 4-8 inches can mean the difference between insane amounts of water damage or just a PIA cleanup.
  14. dseagull
    Wind is slowly starting to pick up a bit. Strong enough for spray to ruin my sandwich on my way across the bay, but I simply dont see the Major flood criteria being achieved as forecast. Im just not buying that this will be 8/10th of a foot less than Sandy. I imagine they will slowly walk it down.
  15. dseagull
    It really has risen to that level of stupidity. People are slowly waking up to it, at least.
  16. dseagull
    Still a fairly nice day on the water. A little chop 15-20kt , but otherwise a beautiful fall morning. 20251011_104915.mp4
  17. dseagull
    I suggest you read the actual legislation, prior to what will soon become common knowledge. SOE declarations are an avenue for misappropriation of funds, and this has only emboldened those in power to declare them more frequently. While they absolutely do open the doors for federal funding, they simultaneously allow for interstate funding to be reallocated. It's not what you may believe it is. It occurs across party lines.
  18. dseagull
    The "first call" hype machine is just a byproduct of social media and sensationalism in the modern era. While those who understand the complexity of forecasting, grasp how quickly model runs change... The general public does not. The general public just reads worst case scenarios on social media. Tides are not running high, most boats are still in the water, and this is likely going to be a glancing early season blow. Phone has been ringing off the hook about "storm prep." My answer as always: put some extra lines on, put fenders out as necessary, and keep up to date on any changes.
  19. dseagull
    Yea, I hear ya. A good place to check real time tide guages and overlay them against predicted tides is on the USGS sites. Every location, obviously will be different based on fetch, stage of tide, orientation, etc... But, ill tell ya this... water levels in the back of barnegat bay are actually running slightly lower right now. Im actually getting ready to head out on the water for work now. Until late last night, we hadn't yet had any easterly flow since the previous NE blow. Infact, we has northwesterlies and SW. Nevertheless, spring tides only generally exacerbate the tidal flooding 10-15 percent. That 10-15 percent can make all the difference in the world though with a long duration easterly blow, especially with a strong or stalled system inside of the benchmark. Hoping we get more of a scraper, as im not necessarily enthusiastic about working vessel salvages 24/7 during and after the storm. Still approximately 60-70 percent of vessels are in the water for the fall run/locals summer. Towards the end of the season, bilge pumps and batteries on ignored vessels are often not working. Hope you have a nice day. It is chilly, but gorgeous this morning. At least we have something local and interesting to track. Ill post many pictures as the storm unfolds.
  20. dseagull
    We are now 4 days off of a moon, and will ne even further as we approach neap tides.
  21. dseagull
    I run charters from barnegat. Been doing so for almost 4 decades. It's cyclical, for sure.
  22. dseagull
    Time will certainly tell, with regard to AI integration. Part of me is fearful that it will become "too good," eliminating the mystery and continuation of scientific analysis in forecasting. Maybe another thread for this topic. I'm fascinated by the current forecast evolution of this particular complex setup. This week will probably take the gold medal for most dynamic tropical forecast (regardless of land interaction,) in perhaps the past 2 seasons. Fujiwara is a thread the needle interaction with actual tropical core systems. Attempting to learn as much as I can over the next 72+ hours. This was worth the wait.
  23. dseagull
    I have mixed opinions on the NHC utilizing DeepMind during the infancy of the AI revolution. It should absolutely be used as a tool, but Im not sure we are at the point where it should be used as a weighted metric in forecast discussions with the public. Model fatigue is a very real thing.
  24. dseagull
    I began editing photos i took while on the ground for work, in the wake of Katrina. While doing so, I came to the conclusion that I wouldn't be posting "forum-friendly" photos of a natural disaster, but rather a humanitarian disaster, that humans were 90% responsible for. I lost my desire to do a thorough post on the matter, but still wanted to share how despicable the preparation, response, and cleanup efforts were by most agencies and parties. This includes local (mostly,) state, and federal (also despicable) efforts. I still have nightmares from stepping into the aftermath, as I wasn't fully mature at that age (even though I was well into adulthood.) The best of humanity was not present for much of the time I had any involvement in the immediate time following the storm. Having said that, it did eventually blossom, once the political finger-pointing and lawlessness subsided. It was the beginning of heavy propaganda and social media. We have only witnessed more depravity since then. Perhaps the most frightening aspect of Katrina, is that (in my opinion,) New Orleans and surrounding areas are no better prepared for a similar storm. In many ways, I believe the residents are even less prepared. Agencies certainly are. That makes me truly sad. To any others who witnessed the storm's aftermath, first hand... I know you are well aware of the human tragedy that took place...and the BS... and the birth of terrible weather-related media. God, help us prepare and react more efficiently and effectively in the future.
  25. dseagull
    Except when the rain/snow line is 5 miles to the north and its puking 3-4 inch/hr rates north of that line. You wont complain, but rather cry. Lol
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