dseagull

Engine is about to turn over. Still looks perfect.

Take a high level scientific statistics class, and I GUARANTEE you wouldn't be sad. Numbers are static and involve no emotion. (Mods, sorry...feel free to remove...back to the storm) This coastal is just about to get going. By 1630, moods are going to change.

100 percent. Been saying the same thing for almost 2 hours now... this has BEAUTIFUL presentation. Getting black to my south. Wind just started increasing 2knots/15min intvl.

Don't think people will discount similar placements (not totals) of jackpots. Islip through central Monmouth may be annihilated, just like 2018. Let's see what sort of convection pushes in as the precip field explodes. I'd put money on 30-40 miles north of myself on the Jersey Coast getting absolutely crushed. Not sure why anyone East of the city is jumping.

Yes, but positioning Is always primary.

Within this envelope, it isnt about the globals. The >36hr point can be debated (for any given year, statistically.) This storm looks great with presentation. Unfortunately, every product I use is lagging.

If anything, the H5s look held back, I'm not trusting the Euro inside of 8 hours. This looks good. Gonna head out and enjoy the calm before the storm. It's going to EXPLODE . Nothing...has changed. Still on course.

Not convinced of any global shorts... This is eerily similar to the 2018 setup. Baking in the sun here on BB in ocean county, nj. Waiting for feedback result error. This system was always going to be a nowcast. Everything looks the same to me still. Going to look through and see what changed, but it still looks almost perfect for coastal and 20 mile differentials for banding. This coastal is about to explode.

Thanks. I work in oceanic sciences and the same is true on a different spacial and temporal scale.

Because... the atmosphere and conditions are primed for extreme explosive growth over the next several hours. This storm is likely to provide many surprises. (Both high and low busts in different regions) Many people are still working and may count the storm a bust if they see nothing when traveling home. That is likely not to be the case... the models are pointless, mostly at this point... Real-time obs and data interpolation is. What is scientifically gathered from this system is still useful in future events, even if it doesn't (it prob will) produce what you expect. Not trying to be rude. That is the actual answer. Research and data collection now, helps models and scientific interpolation and predictions later...

That's such a classic and gorgeous look. If this thing bombs out like the 2018 storm, the banding won't match those QPF maps, but there will be striations of jackpots. (Not just on the immediate coast.) This looks really good.

Would be surprised if you dont begin to see the radar blossom from south to north and begin getting event precip by 730. Atmosphere is juiced. Water vapor, radar, and mesos need to be the go to from this point forward.

32/23 and cloudy on Barnegat Bay. "Smells like snow."

Jersey Shore and LI Burial! Not the biggest 3k fan, but the trend we wanted hasn't flipped.

If some of these short-term models become high confidence, NWS may want to begin changing their discussion drastically within the Blizzard Warning discussions.

Super Bomb. Been waiting for this one since 2010.

Wow... what a horrible night of on and off sleep... happy to wake up to a blizzard warning for barnegat, nj... this storm has been incredible to watch transform. In 24 hours A LOT has changed. Gotta charge all the cameras up and get the generators ready.

I'd be thrilled with half that jackpot sitting over old barney and my house.

Hope you haven't spoken too soon. I don't see this tucking nearly close enough either though.

Smelling the rain, close?

And if this verifies, accurate measurements will be very difficult as usual with MECS in areas that get these forecasted winds. (Good problem to have)

Spot on with your thought on the earlier H5 depictions, if this were to verify. Thanks for your explanation this afternoon.

Fellow weenies would be streaking through my neighborhood's 3-5 foot drifts if this came to fruition.

Montauk would get absolutely raked with insane winds for hours.

Live for long duration coastal wind events. They always intrigued more than tropical systems. This wont be in my top 10 without big changes, but makes for a great storm. Enjoy up your way.