tnweathernut
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Everything posted by tnweathernut
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This is a really good post. Might want to throw this in the storm thread. If we see a widespread snowstorm this weekend, that’s the thread we will be searching for 5-10 years from now.
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In an overrunning situation……. The precip field is normally further north than is being modeled from a few days out.
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Check the pattern at 500 and it's almost a dead ringer.
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The upper levels are very similar to the January 6-7, 1988 snowstorm. If anyone wants to catch up to how that transpired, feel free to take a look at this video from back in the day....
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I was thinking the same thing, John. Very reminiscent of some of the old school systems from way back in the day....
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Agree. I'm probably in the minority, but I never mind a long lead winter thread. Sure, most of them would need a clean up on aisle 7 (sorry mods).......... but when the forum finally achieves something memorable or even historic, it would be nice to have a longer lead thread to revisit.
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Cold 1050 highs don't come toward Iowa every year. Maybe the AI models are starting to get into a time frame less reliant on reanalysis............
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Looks like Nashville is in the basement playing ping pong.
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Things are on a razors edge dependent upon the energy in the southwest (how much comes out) and the strength of the high incoming. Unfortunately, modeling is still unsure how to handle these features.
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The most important feature I'm watching is the high pressure that enters the US around hour 100-110.
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I certainly hope Mike is onto something, but i'm never confident 4+ days out. I guess that's just me and 40+ years of following these things.
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Good find. Thanks for your research.
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This would actually make sense. I've been watching winter storms forecast across the mid-south turn into Kentucky maulers (80% of the time) for over 50 years now.
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Next 24-48 hours of model runs will be pivotal in determining what this looks like coming out. (i.e. one system vs. several smaller waves of overrunning moisture- Miller A/Miller B and what the orientation the incoming high will take on). Pretty confident a nice winter storm will scoot across, but in the mid-south there's always a chance the warm air across the gulf surges further north than modeled.
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There’s nothing really at 500 that should keep the system from kicking out and coming across, FWIW.
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Agree. This would fit many systems I’ve followed in the last 20 years.
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I think we better get a lot of sleep over the next couple of days. 24 more hours of consistent modeling and grocery store workers will be hating life soon.
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Had to be warm when it tries to develop a glacier in your front yard…. lol
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The Canadian is reminiscent of some of the east to west maulers I remember from being a kid in the 80s……. It’s a winter lover’s dream with……Snow on snow with back to back systems with less than 24 hours between them.
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Looks like more snow possible in the panhandle of FL. Two straight years?
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12-1PM and a nearly all snow profile……. Looks good to me.
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6 to 7z - or 1-2 AM EST for northeast TN, from the looks of it.
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SO much chaos in the northern stream. Kick some of that out and it's almost automatically going to help modeling produce more consistently. JMO.
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Feb 9-11, 1994 February 1994 Ice Storm 0.5-3 inches ice (1-2" Plateau, Knoxville), 500,000+ outages (weeks-long), $50M damage. Bad one here too.
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Two possibilities. Cold high, followed by cold high, followed by cold high.......... and a clipper possibility to boot. Really nice Euro run, but more importantly it matches well with the GFS and Canadian for something right around a week away. Need to see some consistency over the next few days (which has been like pulling teeth to get) to gain confidence in any excitement.
