tnweathernut

That settles it. Party at D-wags crib.

More of a microclimate thing, Jax. Unicoi, Greene & parts of Washington County tend to pull downslopes and dryslots like a magician pulls a rabbit from a hat. It's a talent we have in spades.

Don't get me started about this. lol You can ask @Carvers Gapmy thoughts on downsloping/dryslot. Was just mentioning to him this morning about the "double whammy" snow demon not everyone gets the joy of facing. haha I guess when you live where we live you can never really shake it being a concern, but it's less of a concern today than it was 36 hours ago. Trending in the right direction. I like the trajectory of the system and the orientation of the precipitation.

The UKIE is in its own world. No other model is taking it across northern FL and out into the Atlantic off the FL coast. For now, I'd toss that run. JMO.

The AI at 6z took the qpf shield south by about 30-40 miles i believe. Wondering if that is the start of a trend? The Euro has never been on board with this. It's been the model that loses the precip shield from the get go. It's either being stubborn or going to lead the way.

Not to mention, they just don't belong there. People like DT have zero clue how to make an intelligent snow map for SW VA and the southern Apps. Every time I see one of his snow storm maps I find myself wishing he'd just stop including our area in them. Either broaden your horizon and learn some microclimates outside of your bubble or stop trying. Ok, off my soap box. Oh yeah, and congrats on the snow Blunder!!! I knew you guys were golden for at least a couple of inches with that one.

We just have to hope the AI version is smarter than the normal Euro. The regular Euro is insistent upon moisture transport shutting down.

The panel before this was similar for the entire state.

Be interesting to see if this continues across the 0z suite. Last 3 runs Euro AI definitely beefing up nicely.

Or a change of pants.

For everyone that doesn’t know (I didn’t), we have a dedicated thread for late week. :-)

Wondering if we can bend the flow enough for a nice 2-4 to 3-6 type overrunning event with good temps. The other two options are we don’t bend it enough and whiff or bend it too much and get more precip but have temp issues. I think the latter is the least likely solution. …….

Didn’t realize we had a thread for the late week event. Late week likely has a ceiling keeping a positively tilted trough. This isn’t a terrible thing for a more widespread snow, however it also provides the environment where we lose lift and the moisture feed drys up the further east you go. The higher resolution Euro may be correct in picking this up. Better for temps, worse for totals, especially east and northeast through the mid south into the southern apps. Still a ways to go, but good to see modeling start to come together around a general track as we get closer. Let’s see if we can reel in a winter event, regardless of size.

Late week likely has a ceiling keeping a positively tilted trough. This isn’t a terrible thing for a more widespread snow, however it also provides the environment where we lose lift and the moisture feed drys up the further east you go. The higher resolution Euro may be correct in picking this up. Better for temps, worse for totals, especially east and northeast through the mid south into the southern apps. Still a ways to go, but good to see modeling start to come together around a general track as we get closer. Let’s see if we can reel in a winter event, regardless of size.

Just one of the many ways we can lose in East TN, albeit one of the more painful ways…. To see a robust system paste west TN, lose punch and thermals into East TN, only to phase with the lakes low to bomb parts of the NE and MA is no bueno if it happens that way. Especially knowing this is our best shot with the great pattern we were seeing at 500 breaking down much quicker than originally shown.

It looks to keep its positive tilt at 500 as the trough sweeps through the SE. With no real reinforcing cold high, that might be preferable for a light snow opportunity. Anything that approaches neutral tilt around the MS river at 500 likely destroys thermals without a reinforcing high. If we get that WSW flow and an overrunning light snow…… might be enough to get some of the forum on the board for snow. Long way to go, but fingers crossed.

What about ice pack? lol

I’m definitely more interested in the storm after the storm….. It looks like the writing is on the wall for a strong push of warming with storm one. I had this written before 12z, but when your 21 yr old daughter home from UT comes to you and asks if you want to take her to Cracker Barrel, the answer is always yes. :-)

What would be painful would be for the NAO to not provide enough help for storm one and too much help, squashing storm number 2 ......leaving our area mostly cold and dry. It's definitely on the list of possibilities, so something to watch for when it comes to "ways we can whiff" in the mid-south in what looks like a great pattern at 500mb.... That would probably leave us hoping for a system to attack the backside of the departing pattern, hoping there is enough residual cold for a winter system, while we wait to see if we can reload for a better opportunity.

It’s a testament to the pattern we are entering. Never a sure thing in the mid south for snow, but a mean that covers the entire state of TN with 2” is a rarity.

That's almost a full day ahead of the OP

18z is a full 10 degrees colder from southern Indiana to northern Alabama.

Yeah, probably going to make us keep our heads on a swivel. Just put the right “big feature” things in the right places and let’s play ball.

Solid step toward other modeling. There were favorable trends west and east at 500 vs 12z