tnweathernut
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Everything posted by tnweathernut
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I say this kinda in jest, kinda not.... I'm sure they've seen the runs that send a low into east TN bringing thunderstorms. They are probably like............ "I just don't want to right now".
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The one thing that I find absolutely amazing. All the (supposed) modeling improvements seen in the recent past, combined with AI being utilized in its infancy............... and there were models that nailed the blizzard of 1993 from 5 days out. That was 33 years ago!
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Looks like we get to do it all over again toward the end of January. Very similar setup at 500 late month.
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Canadian is an Ohio River snow max. It's in the mid teens with sleet at 3PM Saturday north of Nashville.
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12z was relatively unchanged. Looks like 13z acknowledges the major shift in modeling.
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One of the things I always looked at when modeling became a thing was Chicago. If the snow shield was shown making it to Chicago our area was cooked. I know it's overly simplistic, but that's where we are.
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If you remove the American modeling, you'd have a much cleaner picture. Keeping the American modeling a consideration leads one to believe a wide range of possibilities are still on the table. As much as I'd like to lean on all things American, it's almost impossible in this situation.
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Almost unbelievable, but the NBM at 12z is almost unchanged. Surely it changes this afternoon.............?
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It's not interacting with the energy in the southwest in the same way at 84 at 500mb. That allow the height field to be suppressed a bit more in the east with the initial slug of moisture.
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I think for many, a thump of snow would be something that would help get past the sting of whiffing in that department. Some modeling is very brief with snow before a changeover and just looking at how the setup has moved, that wouldn't surprise me either.
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Maybe it introduces the possibility of two distinct waves though?
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There's a touch less interaction and it's colder at 78 than the prior run at 84, but it's really splitting hairs from the looks of the 12z RGEM at 500.
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The 12zNAM is a crippling ice storm for a bunch of people - even well into KY.............. but as was said, it's the NAM at range. I'd still like it to have shown a period of snow first, but here we are. lol
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Where we were just 24-36 hours seems like an eternity. There was confidence in what we were looking at because baby step moves kept us in the game. Then came the runs that took a man size step away. Not sure there's enough time for small steps to do anything but increase ZR amounts for parts of east TN. At 500, the phase just kills our chances for a big snow by pulling the entire structure northwest. It doesn't take middle and west TN out of the sweepstakes just yet, but there's a reason I-40 has been a battle area over the last 40 years in that neck of the woods. It also doesn't yet kill our chances in east TN for a historic ice event. As an insurance guy I'll just say if it happens that way you probably won't see much of me for a while. It's not unbelievable for this to have gone this direction. It's happened many times in the past. What is unbelievable to me is the Canadian at range has a chance to score the victory here. At the end of the day the weather will do what it wants though and there's nothing we can do about it. At the very least I'll have saved some of the greatest accumulation maps of my life for our area and. Still hopeful we see this move back to the south. It's not out of the range of possibilities on the ensembles and we can always hope the OP's are overamping things. On to 12z.....
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Some morning thoughts. You don’t want to be on the southern edge of a snow shield 3 days out hoping for a SE shift and you don’t want the GFS to be the only model in your camp, hoping it can score the victory. That said, these are the only cards we hold currently. Hoping today on model watch……… the northern stream can stop its westward trend and move away from a phase.
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So this run manages to back into a Lakes low….. lol
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You'd be euphoric right up until the point you lost power for 3 weeks. lol
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Who knows where this goes in the next 2-3 days (speaking of trends), but I can appreciate the models for showing something major from several days ago and sticking with it. It never plays out exactly as modeled, but there wasn't this (lose it in day 5/6) we sometimes see.
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Yeah, it's a definite major snow for most of the state.
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18z GFS, along with some other modeling is showing a bit quicker onset (by a few hours) vs. modeling the last 24 hours. I think modeling slowed the onset for a few runs and is now sensing overrunning and a quicker onset, typical of setups like this.
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FWIW, the 18z AI GFS does take the far southern and southeastern areas of TN above freezing for a few hours at 700mb. Other than this small area, it looks like it's a snow smoke show.
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The ejection of the energy in the southwest is the problem. If it's faster it slides across in tandem with the high pressure. If it's delayed the high gets a bit out of sync with it. The problem is, the trough in the southwest has slowed on most models. Doesn't mean there can't be a widespread major winter storm, but it does introduce the possibility of freezing rain much further north.
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In the January 1988 storm, there’s a freezing rain report from Chattanooga and a surface temp of 25
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I agree with this. These Euro runs are DGEX worthy. We used to get those regularly in winter…….
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Great to have you back. You may have picked a really good time to reappear.
